Forging a More Effective Global Climate Treaty

After seven years of uncertainty, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) will come into force early next year-despite the lack of participation by the United States. With Russian ratification on 4 November, 127 countries have now ratified, accepted, or otherwise approved the treaty-and more than 40 others are at least talking about it. The key requirement for implementation is that a minimum of 55 nations, including Annex I (industrialized) countries representing 55 percent of 1990 industrialized world emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) must ratify the agreement; thus, because the 127 nations include industrialized countries accounting for 62 percent of 1990 Annex I emissions, the numerical requirements will now be met.1

If all countries except the United States were to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, approximately 64 percent of 1990 industrialized world emissions would be represented. However, in addition to the United States, Australia also indicated that it will not ratify the agreement. Removing Australia drops the relevant share of 1990 emissions to about 62 percent.2 If the United States, Australia, and Japan had all failed to ratify, however, then the emissions share covered would have fallen to less than 53 percent, below the 55 percent threshold. Likewise, if all countries except the United States, Australia, and Russia had failed to ratify, then the total share of 1990 industrialized world emissions accounted for by ratifying countries would have been only about 44 percent.

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