Green Ambition

O’Sullivan and Braunstein Make Sense of Renewable Investment Strategies in the Gulf

Each year, MEI offers funding to Harvard faculty for research proposals on major policy issues affecting the region. MEI has awarded 58 research grants to Harvard faculty since 2001, with five added during the fall 2018 award cycle, including MEI’s first-ever Exploratory Research Grant, which provided seed funding to Graduate School of Design Professor Garreth Doherty to build collaborative research connections for a project in Kuwait. These research grants are generously supported through the Kuwait Program and the Emirates Leadership Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School. Priority topic areas include education reform, economic development, political reform, and science and technology, among others.

In recent years, changes in the global energy landscape have motivated the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to develop and invest in the renewable energy sector. While often hailed as the solution to economic troubles in the region, the question remains whether green energy development and investment targets make sense from the GCC states’ national strategic perspectives. With support from MEI, the Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School, directed by MEI Faculty Affiliate Professor Meghan O’Sullivan, embarked on groundbreaking research to explore how GCC states behave during the transition from oil to renewable energy sources.

O’Sullivan completed phase one of this project supported by an MEI faculty research grant during the 2017-2018 academic year. As a part of the initial research phase, O’Sullivan and her team led a workshop and completed a working paper that introduced a new framework for examining the geopolitics of renewable energy. O’Sullivan continued her project on energy into the 2018-2019 academic year, with one focus being on the financing of the renewable energy sector in the Middle East.

Specifically, the Geopolitics of Energy Project has examined the restructuring plans for the carbon-driven economies of the GCC and assessed the ways in which states’ efforts to devote substantial resources to the development of renewable energy are—or are not—in their strategic interests. Post-doctoral Fellow Juergen Braunstein has led the work on this research grant, with oversight from O’Sullivan. Braunstein holds a PhD in political science from the London School of Economics, and his research focuses on green energy policies in the context of the global energy landscape and interstate relations.

With the support of the research grant, Braunstein traveled to member countries of the GCC—including the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia—for multiple research trips during the 2018-2019 academic year. While in the Gulf region, he spoke at numerous conferences related to renewable energy; interviewed dozens of government officials, academics, and private sector actors; and built relationships with institutions, most notably the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) in Riyadh.

Braunstein’s findings challenge conventional wisdoms and provide timely insights for policy makers, researchers, and other actors. The research team’s forthcoming report, “Green Ambitions and Brown Realities: Making Sense of Renewable Investment Strategies in the Gulf,” identifies four of the most common rationales for the development of renewable energy in Gulf countries: revenue maximization, job creation, hedging, and geopolitics. According to Braunstein, each of the four rationales raises different assumptions about the drivers of renewable energy investments and the future of energy. Braunstein’s research then examines whether these strategic rationales are in fact consistent with the specific interests of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar.

Ultimately, Braunstein’s research suggests that the most logical rationales for renewable energy development vary from one GCC state to another. For example, Braunstein finds that the rationale of energy security alone makes sense for smaller Gulf economies, notably the UAE and Kuwait. By contrast, Braunstein finds that the revenue maximization, hedging, and spare oil capacity arguments are much stronger in justifying large renewable investments in Saudi Arabia. Lastly, Braunstein’s findings demonstrate that all of the potential rationales for investment in renewable energy are weaker in Qatar than in any other GCC country.

Braunstein has presented his findings in the GCC states, including at the KAPSARC (Riyadh), as well as at the University of Cambridge (UK), the Belfer Center, and other centers at Harvard University. The Geopolitics of Energy Project is finalizing a white paper on O’Sullivan and Braunstein’s research, to be published in 2020.