Guide to the Young Arab World

BEIRUT -- I was struck this week by the contrast between two phenomena that I have been following in the course of my daily work and personal interests: on the one hand, major and often disruptive political events around the Middle East that capture much attention and can create tension and conflict for short periods of time; and, on the other hand, a more subtle and nuanced exploration of the mindsets and perceptions of young men and women in the Arab world whose attitudes and actions will be far more important determinants of this region’s future prospects than any immediate political event.

The latter exercise is more fascinating and meaningful these days thanks to a valuable new tool that is available for any person interested in understanding accurately what is actually going on in the minds and hearts of approximately 120 million young Arabs roughly between the ages of 12 and 25. That tool is the new survey of young Arabs conducted twice a year by the Gallup company for the Doha-based Silatech organization that works to improve job prospects, entrepreneurship and school-to-work transitions for Arab youth across the region.

The third Silatech-Gallup survey (www.Silatech.com) has just been published and it provides some fascinating and important insights into how young Arabs see themselves and their world -- altogether expected when one actually sits down with young Arabs, asks them about their sentiments and views, and listens to what they say.

Here is my “Understanding Arab youth for dummies” summary of some key findings from the latest data, based on interviews with over 10,000 15-29-year-olds earlier this year in every Arab League member country.

1. The most important thing to know about Arab youth is that there is no such category as “Arab youth,” because living conditions, attitudes and aspirations vary widely across the region and within countries by economic status. A critical determinant of attitudes is economic wellbeing, meaning that young Arabs are the same as young Chinese, Mexicans or Belgians -- treat them well and give them a fair chance to advance in life, and they will respond as responsible, productive citizens. Treat them badly, and they will want to leave or turn to any personal behavior or political savior that will provide them the services and opportunities that they may feel they are not getting from their state or government. This is reflected in many variables, such as the desire to emigrate or a sense of feeling secure in life or struggling or suffering to meet daily needs.

2. The desire to emigrate is a major telltale sign of the concerns of many young Arabs in economically stressed countries. About one-third of all young Arabs say they would like to emigrate permanently to another country, and this ratio reaches as high as 50 percent in some countries. More educated youth in economically stressed countries tend to have a higher desire to leave, meaning that the Arab world continues to lose its most valuable asset: its educated and entrepreneurial young citizens.

3. The desire to leave is not only about finding a better or higher-paying job. Subtle issues of quality of life also emerge from this date. In Tunisia, for example, where 44 percent of polled youth say they wish to leave the country, three reasons pertain: views about the current job climate, opinions regarding economic conditions generally, and perceptions related to governance. Those who say “most” people in Tunisia are afraid to express their political views are far more likely to desire to emigrate (58 percent) than those who say that “some are afraid” to express such views (44 percent). Young Arab women across the region who wish to emigrate cite reasons beyond jobs, such as health, education and environmental conditions.

4. An important aspect of this poll relates to youth’s perceptions of their wellbeing and life satisfaction today and their sense of where they will be in the future, revealing a massive cleavage among rich and poor in our region. In high-income Arab countries, the vast majority were “thriving” (61% men and 57% women), compared to just 15% of men and women who felt they were “thriving” in middle-income countries and 12% in low-income countries. The vast majority in middle and low income countries were “struggling” to make ends meet (72% and 76%) compared to 40% in this category in high-income countries. Around 12-13% of youth were “suffering” in low-income countries, compared to just 1% in wealthier Arab countries.

5. Economic and political grievances are strong and clear across most of the Arab region, but these are usually offset by equally strong supportive factors in young people’s lives, like family, friends, religion and supportive social structures. Therefore, a majority of young Arabs continues to feel that they have the ability to improve their life quality. In Tunisia, for example, 91 percent of youth believe that they can get ahead if they work hard.

Rami G. Khouri is Editor-at-large of The Daily Star, and Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, in Beirut,