Historic Challenges in Syria and Jordan

AMMAN -- Events in Jordan and Syria this week mark perhaps the most significant leap forward in the continuing Arab citizens’ revolt against the modern Arab security state since the overthrow of the Tunisian and Egyptian regimes. The public challenge to the pervasive and efficient security and intelligence services in both countries means that citizens have crossed a major threshold in demanding changes in the conduct of their respective power systems. Should power configurations and policies change in Jordan and Syria -- given their links with Palestine, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia -- the entire Middle East will be impacted in important ways.

I have been in Damascus and Amman in the past week and discussed the current regional upheavals with regime stalwarts, opposition or independent figures, and ordinary citizens. It is clear that the ruling elites in both countries are neither willing to admit that the regional democracy wave is lapping at their doors nor clear about how to respond. Jordan and Syria portray themselves as immune to the regional pressures for change, and assume that their large and omnipresent security sectors can control any outburst of democratic agitation. On both counts, this week suggests, they are almost certainly wrong.

The outburst of small demonstrations in several Syrian cities that culminated in the major clashes in the southern town of Deraa, leaving close to 100 people dead, coincided with a bold move Thursday by hundreds of young Jordanian activists to set up a permanent tent encampment in front of the Ministry of Interior, where they vowed to remain until their demands for serious constitutional reform and ending corruption were met. What is truly significant here is that both the Jordanian and Syrian authorities have been forced to make major promises to examine how they can respond to the demonstrators’ demands, including ending emergency laws, amending the constitution, changing government officials, and allowing greater political pluralism and government accountability.

Two other dimensions of events in Syria and Jordan this week are important to note. The first is that demonstrators are publicly calling for ending or reducing the security and intelligence agencies’ involvement or interference in routine affairs of state and society that are not related to pure security threats. The second is that those demonstrating and calling for real change are not from one party or group only, but rather represent a variety of groups in society that form a formidable coalition of discontented citizens. In the Jordanian demonstrations that have taken place every Friday, and now in the “March 24” tent encampment that the demonstrators have called “Tahrir Square,” emulating the Cairo area that anchored the revolt against the Husni Mubarak regime, leftists, nationalists and Islamists have joined together to demand real reforms. They chanted: "The people want to reform the regime. We want the corrupt put on trial. Revolts are around us, it is your turn Jordan. Intelligence Department, we want your hands off politics!"

Such public demands of the king and criticism of the powerful General Intelligence Department are novel developments. King Abdullah earlier this week had ordered faster results from the “national dialogue committee” that he established last month, which is hobbling along because of a boycott by Islamists who do not think the king or prime minister are serious about reforms. This follows his changing the prime minister and the government two months ago in the face of weekly protests, and promising "quick, practical, and concrete steps to launch a process of genuine political reform, comprehensive development, and strengthening democracy."

In Syria, similarly, a government that had been in total control of every dimension of society and public life now finds itself forced to respond to the demands of citizens who brave the security services to march in the streets. After the Deraa deaths and the rising number of citizens who defied a ban on public demonstrations, the government Thursday said it would consider lifting draconian restrictions on political freedom and civil liberties, including lifting the state of emergency that has been in effect since 1963. A close presidential adviser, Buthaina Shaaban, also said the government was drafting a law that would end the Baath Party’s monopoly on political parties, loosen media controls, fight corruption, and provide public servants with higher salaries and health insurance.

Important new dynamics are taking hold in Jordan and Syria, reflecting fearless boldness in the activism of citizens who had long remained docile in the face of pervasive security controls. Where all this will lead is not clear, but it is clear that a historic page has been turned in the Levant, as has happened in North Africa. Strong and assertive governments now find themselves responding defensively, and not always convincingly, to a public political agenda that is being defined by young men and women in the street.