Analysis & Opinions - The New York Times

Jordan's Urban Refugees

| March 17, 2014

This past weekend marked the third anniversary of the Syrian uprising against President Bashar al-Assad — and the outlook is increasingly grim.

Peace talks last month in Geneva have left future negotiations uncertain. Syria has failed to meet benchmarks for eliminating chemical weapons and will likely miss a June 30 deadline to destroy its entire arsenal. Violence is intensifying between the regime and the rebels.

Through all this, Washington has been intensely focused on Syria's internal fault lines. But with hundreds of thousands of refugees flooding into Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq, the crisis has swelled far beyond Syria's borders. It is imperative, then, to start tackling the Syrian spillover now before the situation becomes even worse — and Jordan is the best place to start.

The movement of nearly 600,000 Syrians into Jordan is straining that country's economy, infrastructure and social services. While international press attention has focused mainly on Jordan's Zaatari refugee camp, home to approximately 100,000 Syrians, the vast majority of refugees have settled in Jordan's urban areas, particularly those close to its northern border, like the cities of Mafraq and Ramtha.

The increased demand for housing and the influx of subsidies from international NGOs have nearly tripled the cost of rent in these cities, driving many Jordanians from their homes and pushing Syrians further into debt. Jordan's crowded public schools are being crippled as administrators try to accommodate at least 85,000 refugee students — still only half of the school-age Syrians now in the country. Local hospitals, sanitation and water systems are being similarly strained. As one young Syrian told me in January, "We're making a hard life harder for Jordanians."

In a country long considered one of the region's most stable, these socioeconomic problems are worrying enough. But perhaps more alarming, particularly for American interests, is that Jordanians are starting to believe that their government (and the international community) is helping Syrian refugees at their expense. While these tensions have not yet led to riots or widespread violence, local observers fear that this might not last. As one Jordanian security official told me, the refugees may bring Jordan "a new Arab Spring." Such turmoil would not only be devastating for Jordan, but would deprive the United States of a crucial partner in efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis, repair Iraq and advance an Israeli-Palestinian agreement.

To avoid further destabilizing Jordan, Washington and Amman must act now to contain the Syrian spillover. First, both countries must seek out medium- and long-term solutions, shifting their focus from a stopgap emphasis on humanitarian aid to a combination of aid and development assistance. This means, in part, supporting Jordan's recent request for $4.1 billion from the international community to improve health, education and other public services used by Syrian refugees in urban areas.

But such aid should come with demands to better integrate Syrian refugees into the local economy. Jordan must harness the talents of its new, albeit temporary, residents: changing work permits to allow more Syrians to find legal employment, encouraging Syrian refugees to start businesses that hire locals, and allowing international agencies to put Syrians to work on refugee-related projects.

These measures may provoke opposition from some Jordanians who are concerned that their country has frequently been a haven for the region's refugees, including large numbers of Palestinians since Israeli independence in 1948, and Iraqis during the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 American invasion. But Jordan derives significant benefits from the Syrians' presence, including billions in aid earmarked for solutions to domestic issues that predate the refugee crisis. Integrating Syrians into the local market could help energize the moribund economy, and help shore up the refugees' self-sufficiency and sense of purpose, preparing them for their return home when the conflict is over.

When I visited Jordan earlier this year, every Syrian I spoke with stressed that they had no desire to remain in the country for the long term. Empowering, employing and educating Syrians in the interim ensures that endless Jordanian support won't be necessary.

Of course, the refugee crisis is not Jordan's responsibility alone. Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq are also part of the equation, and their efforts to provide food, shelter and social services to millions of Syrian refugees remain vital. International support for the millions of displaced persons within Syria must likewise be a focus moving forward, including a redoubling of efforts to establish protected buffer zones, and allocating humanitarian aid to those in de facto refugee camps near the borders.

Also critical is the expansion of Syrians' options for resettlement outside of the Middle East. The United States and its European allies must accept Syrian refugees in much greater numbers. Germany and Sweden have welcomed 18,000 and 14,000 Syrians, respectively; the United Nations has begun pushing to have an additional 30,000 of the country's most vulnerable refugees — women and children — resettled in America and Western Europe. Last month the Obama administration amended immigration rules that had prevented Syrian refugees from resettling in the United States, potentially opening the door to 1,300 Syrian asylum applicants.

These steps are commendable but not enough. The United States must open its doors wider and push Canada, Britain and others to follow suit.

Jordan's Syrian refugees are a potent symbol of the Syrian conflict's debilitating effects throughout the region. Ultimately, a long-term solution will require a negotiated settlement that paves the way for millions of displaced Syrians to return home and rebuild their country. In the meantime, Jordan, the United States and key partner nations must do what's right for the refugees. If they don't, it will be impossible to prevent the Syrian war from spilling over and destabilizing the entire Middle East.

Marisa L. Porges, a former policy adviser in the United States Defense and Treasury Departments, is a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

For more information on this publication: Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation: Porges, Marisa L..“Jordan's Urban Refugees.” The New York Times, March 17, 2014.