Let?s Declare a State of Ecological Emergency

The magnitude of the challenges facing African countries as a result of climate change is of wartime proportions. Africa is indeed facing the equivalent of a state of emergency and its response must therefore match the challenges — with actions that go well beyond what national constitutions might allow, argue Calestous Juma and Bob Bell Jr
 

Projected impacts of climate change on the global economy will rival those arising from great wars, according to the Stern Review released in London recently. This prognosis suggests that the international community should respond to the threat with a corresponding sense of urgency. 

African countries, for example, are already suffering from the impacts of climate disruptions and can hardly wait for the full impact of the changes to unfold. They need to take immediate measures. Nothing short of a declaration of a state of “ecological emergency” by groups of countries will be sufficient to address the challenges that lie ahead.

Declaring a state of ecological emergency should be guided by the need to safeguard the future against widespread economic damage arising from environmental change irrespective of whether it is caused by global warming or not.

There is already ample evidence of damage arising from local ecological change which requires radical responses. Emergencies are routinely declared in the face of famines but they are often not accompanied by long-term programmes aimed at reducing their occurrence or impact. The idea of declaring an ecological state of emergency is not intended to cause panic but to create an atmosphere of urgency that would lead to remedial and anticipatory actions.

Sensing danger

Recent reports reveal devastating trends for the effects of global warming on Africa. The continent is warmer by 0.5°C than it was a century ago, and the six warmest years in Africa have all been since 1987. 

The projected impacts of this warming will be compounded by local ecological disturbances that may not be connected to global warming. In this regard, the measures that need to be adopted to address long-term climate change are similar to those required for routine ecological housekeeping.

Most studies indicate that many dry areas will get drier and wet areas will get wetter. As Andrew Simms of the UK-based New Economics Foundation has aptly said of these areas: They are going to be caught between the devil of drought and the deep blue sea of floods.”

Africa’s continuing ecological drama highlights the need to respond using extraordinary measures. The average number of food emergencies per year nearly tripled since the mid-1980s. The continent already requires a major drive to promote food security. Such efforts will need to reflect long-term climatic considerations.

Africa experienced nearly a 2.8 times decrease in water availability compared to other regions of the world from 1970 to 1995. Some 14 African countries currently experience water scarcity, with another 11 set to join them in the next 25 years.

The drying up of Lake Chad (shared by Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger), though not directed to climate change, is a grim reminder of the kinds of ecological challenges that lie ahead. The lake has receded to less than 20 per cent of its former volume in the last three decades. The impact has been catastrophic for communities that derived their livelihoods from this shallow lake.

Climate disruptions are making southern Africa an increasingly water-stressed region, and recent projections estimate a reduction in river flow in the Nile region, interrupting normal irrigation and other economic activities. These scenarios are a harbinger of water-related anxieties that could lead to conflicts.

Many large coastal cities could suffer severe damages from sea level rise. A one-meter sea-level rise could consign Banjul, the capital city of The Gambia, to the deep end. Kenya’s coastal agricultural products such as mangoes, cashew nuts and coconuts will be severely affected with economic losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. The cost of losing coconut production on coastal cultures will be immeasurable. 

Savannahs, tropical forests, coral reefs, freshwater habitats, wetlands and montane ecosystems will be affected by the changes. It is estimated that up to 90 per cent of Africa’s plant species will be affected by the disruptions. 

This could also affect the distribution of animal species, thereby affecting economic activities such as tourism. Uncertainty over the availability of arable land will reinforce control over land rights which in turn could be detrimental to migratory wildlife species.

Global warming will add to the burden of “environmental refugees”, whose own mobility will cause further ecological destruction. Reductions in the flow of the Nile, for example, will add further stress to a region that is already in economic turmoil and conflict.

Drought and other climate-related shocks will increase the potential for conflict and violence, making governance more difficult. Some projections suggest that some 182 million people in sub-Saharan Africa could die from diseases associated with climate change by the end of the century. 

According to the World Health Organisation, climate change will alter the patterns of the spread of infectious diseases. In one highland area of Rwanda, for example, malaria incidence increased by 337 per cent in 1987, and 80 per cent of the increase may be a result of changes in rainfall and temperature.

These and many other economic, ecological and social threats of climate change will demand extraordinary measures that correspond to the magnitude of the anticipated disruptions. 

Most of the key responses will require greater use of scientific knowledge and technical expertise. No single country will be able to generate all the knowledge needed for a challenge of this magnitude. International technology cooperation will be key to finding lasting solutions.

Calling on human ingenuity

One of the most critical challenges facing the international community is how to make the transition from scientific monitoring of trends in global change to technological responses in all fields of human endeavour. 

Advances in geographical information systems (GIS) and other remote sensing techniques will be needed to monitor changes in critical resources such as water. In addition, diverse technological solutions should be needed to help manage water supply in light of ecological disruptions. 

Poorly-designed large-scale irrigation projects can be expensive and lead to ecological disasters. But smart, small-scale technologies — including subterranean pools for trapping rainfall, pumps on river banks, and cisterns under drain spouts — can help support diversified agriculture. But designing such systems will require capacity in ecological engineering and will put new pressures on existing universities to find lasting solutions.  

There are inspiring examples that can guide the future. For example, Makerere Univeristy’s Faculty of Appropriate Technology operates a rainwater harvesting project that uses water tanks made out of stabilised soil blocks. The university has transferred the technology to a number of organisations in Uganda. In one district, for example, over 700 water tanks have been built for individual homes.

African countries can generate and disseminate a wide range of such technologies. But large-scale technological responses will require long-term international cooperation efforts similar to those adopted in dealing with increasing food production in Latin America and Asia.

The Green Revolution is an example. Political concerns during the Cold War played an important role in inspiring the widespread adoption of high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice in Mexico, India and other countries. 

The US, in cooperation with other industrialised countries, played an important role in creating and sustaining, over decades, a global network of agricultural research institutes created to promote food production in developing countries. 

The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) still remains the most successful effort to mobilise the world’s scientific knowledge for solving development problems. It is an example of what the international community can do if there is sufficient political will to champion human welfare as a common good.

This effort not only helped to raise food productivity in Latin America, but it helped to stimulate local economic activities. In addition to helping to meet local food needs and raising farm incomes, the Green Revolution also helped to integrate these countries into the global agricultural trade system. 

One of the key attributes of the Green Revolution was the creation of institutions that helped to adapt available agricultural technologies to local conditions in developing countries.

Clean Technology Revolution

The Green Revolution was not perfect and has been heavily criticised. But it had limited objectives and focused on raising agricultural productivity in key staples such as wheat and rice. But it created a foundation of food safety against which it was possible to address other issues. 

In addition, it showed how scientific knowledge could be mobilised to solve development challenges. It also showed that it was possible to create long-term international technology partnerships aimed at solving local problems. 

The world needs a “Clean Technology Revolution” that will not only involve responding to climate change, but help to harness the best available scientific and technological expertise to promote sustainable development.

Similar lessons can be learned from the global efforts to protect the ozone layer. This remarkable story of UN leadership is a product of long-term scientific monitoring of trends and the creation of new institutions to promote the generation and adoption of alternative technologies. 

The Montreal Protocol on the protection of the ozone layer stands out as a key success in bringing new technologies to help solve critical problems. The efforts involved extensive private sector participation. 

Similar protocols may need to be adopted to address climate change concerns with a focus on key sectors such as energy, transportation and agriculture. It is unfortunate this model has yet to receive sufficient attention under the climate change treaty.

Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, such measures will need to be narrow in focus and organised around specific industries such as coal, auto, agriculture and others. The focus should be on the development and diffusion of new technologies.

Regional technology cooperation in the field of clean energy will also need to be promoted. For example, concerted efforts are needed to expand geothermal energy production in Eastern Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia). 

The region can generate over 2,500 MW of electricity from geothermal energy using existing technologies, compared to the current global output of 8,100 MW. Expanding geothermal energy production could be linked to building capacity in engineering and related environmental fields.

Similar regional efforts could be mounted to expand the production of biofuels. Advances in genomics and the related agricultural sciences are helping to expand the prospects of producing fuels such as ethanol on a cost-effective basis. International cooperation with leaders in the field such as Brazil could help African countries diversity their clean energy sources.

Today the world has a much larger pool of scientific and technological knowledge that can be used to address climate disruptions. Advances in fields such as genomics, information technology and geographic sciences offer new tools for addressing today’s challenges. New fields such as nanotechnology add to the global arsenal for confronting ecological disruptions. 

But the world lacks the appropriate institutions needed to bring such technologies to wider use. This is where the world should focus its attention. The answers may lie in searching the world for inspirational models and not simply engaging in diplomatic gymnastics. 

Study tours of innovations around the world aimed at promoting sustainable development may be a more critical use of funding than large conferences. New commitments can only be reached around ideas that show prospects of success, not from simply louder pronouncements about the coming threats. 

While entry points might differ across regions of the world, key lessons such as the role of scientific and technical knowledge and the importance of institutional innovation may be common features that help the world learn how to adapt to change. For Africa, for example, a critical starting point might be sustainable agriculture.

Regional response

A look into the future of climate change reveals disruptions that will take on wartime proportions. Africa will need to respond regionally through a broad range of measures aimed at sustaining human health, agriculture, energy, water supply, tourism and many other vital sectors. 

The magnitude of the challenges is of wartime proportions. Responses must therefore match the challenges: they too must be the equivalent of being at war. African countries, working collectively with their regions, need to seriously consider a level of concerted actions that goes well beyond what their national constitutions might allow. They are indeed facing the equivalent of a state of emergency. 

The timeframes needed to effect change requires actions to be taken now: they are already in an “ecological state of emergency” and need to act accordingly. They may not need to declare this for nature has already done so and they simply need to respond with appropriate regional responses.

In fact, African countries have already created organisations that focus on the linkages between ecology, economics and security. The Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) that comprises countries in the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda) and the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) are prototypes of such organisations.

Other regional integration organisations such as the East African Community, which have legislative bodies, could play a critical role in championing regional responses to climate change by directly engaging legislators.

Invoking regional emergency powers must be guided by a clear sense of purpose: to bring all the available scientific and technical knowledge to local communities and to strengthen their adaptive capabilities. 

One of the key ways to do this is to upgrade the technical knowledge of local communities, building on indigenous knowledge. At least three major regional strategies will need to be adopted.

First, a wide range of agricultural credit and incentives will need to be provided to farming, herding and fishing communities to help them upgrade their productive capabilities. State and private banks may require additional policy encouragement to help them serve this purpose. 

The micro-credit movement in Asia has shown the power of extending financial support to local communities to promote entrepreneurial activities. This model, which has also been shown to work in Africa, needs to be extended to help local communities reduce economic vulnerability.

Second, new regional institutions offering technical support to farmers need to be created. This can be done by getting universities to create community extension programmes. If universities cannot respond to the challenges, then new regional agricultural corporations may be needed to bring new technologies to local communities.

The Foundation for the Application and Teaching of the Sciences (FUNDAEC), created over 30 years ago in the Colombian Valle del Cauca region, does systematic investigations with rural families in the area of agricultural and livestock production, helps to form cooperative community groups, develops appropriate agro-industrial technologies, develops the capacities of rural youth, and works with rural economies and small-scale businesses.

Third, much of the work needed to promote diversity in community production will involve significant investments in ecologically-sound infrastructure projects. African countries should start to consolidate the technical expertise in their national armed forces into regional corps for infrastructure construction and maintenance. Various African countries such as Eritrea, Ghana and Rwanda are already deploying their armed forces to work on development projects. 

It’s time to act

Such regional responses will help Africa define the terms of its cooperation with the rest of the world. Innovation-led strategies will help put science and technology at the centre of Africa’s diplomatic relations with the rest of the world. It will work more with countries that are ready to enter into long-term technology partnerships. 

In addition, Africa will also seek to work more closely with countries and regions that share similar ecological challenges and opportunities. In other words, Africa can help redefine international diplomacy around sustainable development issues with a strong emphasis on science and technology.

Delegates at the Nairobi meeting of the Climate Change Treaty will be entering their second week of negotiations. Most of them will be hoping to return home having agreed on a common diplomatic position on what to do next. 

But an agreed document will not be sufficient unless it is accompanied by bold measures that demonstrate the resolve to act. Declaring a state of ecological emergency in vulnerable regions of the world, especially in Africa, will focus local and international attention on sustainable development in general and climate change in particular. The time to do it is now.

Calestous Juma teaches at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and is co-chair of the High-Level African Panel on Modern Biotechnology of the African Union and the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). 

Bob W. Bell Jr is a researcher in the Science, Technology and Globalisation Project at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
 

• Africa Insight is an initiative of the Nation Media Group’s Africa Media Network.