The Looming Threat of Russia’s Black Sea Ambitions

Western headlines have focused on Ukraine’s success in driving the Russian Army from the gates of Kyiv and Kharkiv. But as the battle for the Donbas still rages, another critical fight looms on the horizon following the Ukrainian administration’s announcement of a major southern counteroffensive. The fall of Mariupol and Russia’s ambition to occupy Ukraine’s southern Black Sea coastline pose a dangerous threat. Russia aims to control not just Ukraine, but the Black Sea itself.

Ukraine’s coastline—extending from “Transnistria” all the way to Mariupol and Crimea—represents a rich prize for Russia. Unable to take Kyiv or Kharkiv, but having established a land bridge to Crimea, Russia’s next big move is to take aim at what will do the most damage. Cutting off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea would inflict a catastrophic economic and military blow and leave Ukraine a landlocked rump state.

This has been clear from Russia’s recent staged attacks against the so-called Transnistria Kremlin-aligned breakaway region, its intensified attacks against Odesa, its blockade of Ukraine’s seaports, and Moscow’s high appetite for taking over Mariupol.