New Rules for the Middle East

The Doha agreement that has resolved the immediate political crisis in Lebanon is the latest example of the new political power equation that is redefining the Middle East. It reflects both local and global forces, and eighteen years after the Cold War ended, it provides a glimpse of what the post-Cold War world will look like -- at least in the Middle East.

Several dynamics seem to be at play, but one stands out as paramount: We are witnessing the clear limits of the projection of American global power, combined with the assertion and coexistence of multiple regional powers (Turkey, Israel, Iran, Hizbullah, Syria, Hamas, Saudi Arabia, etc.). These local powers tend to fight and negotiate at the same time, and ultimately prefer to make reasonable compromises rather than perpetually to wage absolutist battles.

The Doha accord for Lebanon was much more than simply a victory for Iranian-backed Hizbullah over the American-backed March 14 alliance. It is the first concrete example in the Arab world of a negotiated, formal political agreement by local adversaries to share power and make big national decisions collectively, while maintaining close strategic relationships with diverse external patrons in the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria. The Lebanese agreement (unlike the failed Fateh-Hamas unity government) is likely to succeed because all the parties know that to live together peacefully they must make mutual compromises. This accord has been forged in the furnace of Middle Eastern demographic and political realism, in contrast to the hallucinatory absolutism that often drives American-Israeli policy in this region.

This is not a full defeat for the United States -- more like a draw. It puts into concrete political form the most powerful force that has defined the Middle East in recent decades: the willingness of individuals, political movements and some governments to openly defy, challenge, resist and occasionally to fight the United States, Israel and their Arab and other allies. The United States since 2004 has explicitly, repeatedly and passionately singled out Lebanon as an arena where Hizbullah and other regional Islamist forces backed by Iran and Syria would be faced down and defeated. But now, the United States will face these forces from across the same cabinet room table, not as bludgeoned and defeated foes, but rather as partners and colleagues in Lebanon's national unity government. When Hizbullah and Hariri exchange kisses, a befuddled Condoleezza Rice should take care not to fall off her exercise bicycle. 

The United States is a slow learner in the Middle East, where the terrain is strange to it, the body language bizarre, the fierce power of historical memory incomprehensible, and the negotiating techniques other-worldy. But the US is not stupid. It learns over time that if you retread a flat tire over and over again, and it keeps going flat on you, perhaps it is time to buy a new tire -- if you hope to actually move forward. Now that we have a draw in the broad ideological confrontation throughout the Middle East that pits Israeli-Americanism against Arab-Islamo nationalism, we should expect the players to reconsider their policies if they wish to make new gains on both sides.

Lebanon, however, is not the most significant development this week reflecting the limits of American power in the Middle East. The truly remarkable manifestation of how the United States has marginalized itself is the conduct of the Israeli government. The United States has pushed the Israelis hard to do two things in the past two years: Do not negotiate with Syria and do not engage Hamas. What has Israel done during the past few months and more? It has been wisely negotiating with Syria via Turkey, and engaging Hamas on a truce deal through the intermediation of Egypt. Hold on, Condi, this gets even worse.

It is no big deal in Washington when nearly five hundred million Arabs, Iranians and Turks ignore and defy the United States. But when Israel -- the only democracy in the Middle East, America's eternal ally, and the bastion of the epic modern struggle against fascism, totalitarianism, Nazism, communism, and terrorism -- ignores the United States, that is newsworthy.

So we now have a rare moment in the Middle East: Iran, Turkey, all the Arabs, Hizbullah, Hamas, and Israel all share one and only one common trait: They routinely ignore the advice, and the occasional threats, they get from Washington. Condoleezza Rice was correct in summer 2006 when she said we are witnessing the birth pangs of a new Middle East. But the emerging new regional configuration is very different from the one she fantasized about and tried to bring into being with multiple wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, Somalia and Lebanon, and threats against Iran and Syria. 

The new rules of the political game in the Middle East are now being written by the key players in the Middle East -- and that should be welcomed.