Nuclear Policy at the G7: Six Key Questions

How can the G7 address eroding confidence in contemporary nuclear institutions?

Mayumi Fukushima: The global nuclear order is under enormous strain as the return of great power politics has weakened the international institutions that are foundational to its stability. States face few consequences for seriously violating the legal provisions and norms of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. With Russia's sabre-rattling and suspension of the new START treaty, China's efforts to massively expand its nuclear arsenal, North Korea's repeated missile launches, and Iran's further advances toward nuclear weaponization, geopolitical competition repeatedly plays a central role. For Russia and China, their interests in undermining America's influence in their respective regions are far more important than curbing nuclear proliferation, especially in states such as North Korea and Iran that are supportive of their mission.

Allowing Russia and China to act with impunity would encourage further violations and would increasingly erode confidence in relevant institutions, including the UN Security Council, on which nuclear institutions like the IAEA depend for law enforcement. Given current great power politics creates enormous challenges for these institutions, the G7 leaders should do more than just condemn violations or call for stronger adherence to existing treaties and sanctions regimes. They could suggest ways to rebuild trust not just in nuclear institutions but also in broader security organizations, including major reforms at the United Nations and more constructive diplomatic engagement with Russia (once the war in Ukraine has come to a close) and China.