Open Source Intelligence for National Security: The Art of the Possible

The war in Ukraine was a wake-up call regarding the ability of non-state actors, such as Bellingcat, to glean valuable information from open-source data. In the words of Paul Kolbe, Director of the Intelligence Project, “Vast troves of data” are now available, which, “if analyzed and purposed, can provide stunning insights into areas that were previously only discoverable through risky, expensive, and restricted intelligence collection.”

On November 1, 2022, the Intelligence Project hosted a virtual discussion with private sector experts who tackle national security problems using publicly-available data and artificial intelligence. The discussion was hosted by Kolbe along with Belfer Fellow Kristin Wood, CEO of Grist Mill Exchange, and Intelligence Project Manager Maria Robson-Morrow. The seminar, which drew over 200 participants, was featured in the Harvard Crimson. Attendees observed that the concrete case studies presented helped them understand the immense power and value of OSINT to tackle security issues such as human trafficking.

As explained by Samuel Curet from Zero Trafficking, “Human trafficking does not operate in a silo.” Mapping criminal networks engaging in human trafficking has broader implications for national security. It is “the nexus between many organized criminal efforts,” as explained by Curet, and unlike drug traffickers or many other criminals, human traffickers “need to advertise on the clear web,” allowing for powerful data detection and collection. 

Threat actors operating in global networks leave trails. “Nearly everyone intersects with the global economy in some way,” explained Varun Vira from the Center for Advanced Defense Studies. “The data’s available, the technology is available” to detect and disrupt illicit activity in trade, transit, and financial networks. Hassan Salamony and Jacob Ayres-Thomson from 3AI demonstrated how AI/ML can assist with deep dives on the world stock market and on specific companies, including predicting company performance, with resulting geopolitical insights.

Amanda Young from Altana AI illustrated how data can be used to develop a network of companies doing business with Russian entities, and to identify patterns of actors engaging in proliferation activities. Mike Speirs from Faculty AI then presented the case study of the Russian Novichok poisoning in Salisbury, UK, in 2018. Whereas previously it could take days to counter disinformation, Speirs explained that APIs and commercial datasets now make it possible to do so in minutes, before disinformation narratives “start to spread too wildly out of control.” 

Ultimately, behind vast datasets is the behavior of individuals. As explained by Public Democracy’s Eric Sapp, “behind each of these numbers is a person.” Understanding individuals, including adversaries, is key to countering disinformation. One seminar attendee observed that they see such efforts as “the key to making social media better for humanity!”

The technology available for open-source intelligence analysis is evolving rapidly. One attendee, a self-described “one-man show doing intelligence” at his agency, explained that webinars like this “help [him] keep up with the overall industry.” 

This seminar reflects an ongoing initiative by the Intelligence Project to explore the power of commercially-available and publicly-available data, outside of the classified realm, to tackle pressing national security priorities. 

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