Politics and Power in Zimbabwe

THIS WEEKEND President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is expected once again to rig elections in order to hold onto power while neighboring Botswana, Africa's oasis of peace and good governance, will celebrate the retirement of President Festus Mogae after two productive terms. The contrast between Botswana and Zimbabwe could not be more stark, or more illustrative of good and evil in Africa.

Botswana, one of Africa's wealthiest countries per capita thanks to diamonds, tourism, and sensible management, has enjoyed more than four decades of honest, practical government under three popular presidents. On Monday, Mogae will give way to Vice President Ian Khama.

Guided by Mogae and two other democratic presidents, the small country has flourished and become the envy of all of Africa. Despite high HIV/AIDS numbers, its hospitals and clinics provide retroviral drugs to all sufferers. Its schools and universities provide increasing numbers of local and neighboring peoples with instruction.

Rule of law is observed and corruption hardly exists. Botswana's secret is high quality leadership, broad levels of political participation, and extensive accountability.

Across the Shashe River, Botswana's border with Zimbabwe, all is tragedy. Where Botswana's presidents made their desert bloom, Mugabe - president since Zimbabwe's independence in 1980 - has turned his once lush, prosperous nation into a desperate, desiccated despotism, with hunger and bitterness everywhere.

Zimbabwe's hospitals have no medicines or sutures, its schools no textbooks or teachers. Life expectancy is the lowest in the world, age 34 for women. Electricity and water are available only occasionally. The difference again is leadership.

Mugabe, 84, falsified the parliamentary elections in 2000 and 2005 in order to prevent a victory of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, led by trade unionist Morgan Tsvangirai, 56. Mugabe blatantly rigged the presidential election of 2002 to prevent another victory by Tsvangirai. On Saturday Zimbabwe's beleaguered voters again go to the polls to cast ballots for president and for parliament.

This time Mugabe is running against Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni, 58, Mugabe's one-time minister of finance. Throughout Zimbabwe, Tsvangirai is drawing large crowds to meetings that, too often, are broken up by the country's police. Wherever the meetings can be held, there are spontaneous shouts of "chinja" - "change." Makoni's rallies are much less well attended, and Mugabe's listeners are trucked in from distant villages, escorted by police. A nationwide opinion poll taken last week in a country where polling is dangerous reported 28 percent for Tsvangirai, 20 percent for Mugabe, 8 percent for Makoni, and the rest undecided or "too scared to vote."

Although Mugabe promised the African Union that the elections would be fair, it has been clear for months that Mugabe intends to win, by fair means or foul. No independent foreign observers will be allowed to watch the election or the centralized counting at a "command center" controlled by Mugabe. Police are being sent into each polling station to question potential voters. There are no independent safeguards for ballot boxes, or for the count.

There are other ominous signs. More than 9 million paper ballots have been printed for about 6 million registered voters. Zimbabweans in neighboring countries cannot vote, but 600,000 ballots have been printed for the 20,000 Zimbabwean diplomats and soldiers abroad.

Intimidation is rife. In Bulawayo, officers of the Central Intelligence Organization arrested MDC supporters and made them eat an MDC poster that they were affixing to a wall. Human Rights Watch reported that teachers distributing flyers were assaulted with iron bars and pieces of furniture by ruling party thugs. In areas where hunger is prevalent, the ruling party distributes corn meal only to persons promising to vote for Mugabe.

The commander of the Zimbabwean army says that he will not permit Mugabe to lose, and will stage a coup if there is an adverse vote. The commissioner of police, not to be outdone, promises to fire live ammunition at anyone who protests the conduct or result of Saturday's poll.

Zimbabweans will have to brave heavy odds and the veritable horsemen of the apocalypse to oust Mugabe and turn their once proud country into a reborn Botswana.