Russia: Grasping Reality of Nuclear Terror

Introduction

The likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack against Russia is growing, as radical separatists in troubled Chechnya increasingly become more desperate, and security at many of Russia's civil nuclear facilities remains insufficient. They have already demonstrated their capability and willingness to inflict massive indiscriminate casualties by organizing an apartment bombing in the southern Russian city of Buinaksk. They have acquired radioactive materials, threatened to attack Russia's nuclear facilities, plotted to hijack a nuclear submarine, and have attempted to put pressure on the Russian leadership by planting a container with radioactive materials in Moscow and threatening to detonate it. These incidents occurred between 1994 and 1996, during Russia's first military campaign in Chechnya at a time when separatists were so overwhelmed and outmanned they believed that acts of terrorism employing nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) materials -- if not weapons of mass destruction (WMD) -- could be the only way to force Russian troops to retreat from Chechnya.

During Russia's second campaign (which began in the fall of 1999), Chechnya-based radical separatists have planted explosives into tanks filled with chemical substances, scouted Russian nuclear facilities to establish contact with an insider, and have stolen radioactive metals from a nuclear power plant. In October 2002, a group of more than 40 Chechen terrorists took more than 700 hostages at a Moscow theater, in order to force President Vladimir Putin to pull Russian troops out of Chechnya.8 While these attempts to coerce the Kremlin have failed, this paper will argue that the Kremlin's refusal to concede to separatist demands has contributed to an escalation of motivation among Chechnya-based radical separatists to attempt acts of nuclear terror.

This paper argues that the threat of catastrophic nuclear terrorism is becoming a clear and present danger to Russia. This threat has grown, due to Russia's second campaign in Chechnya, which has cornered separatists to such an extent that they may believe that acts of catastrophic nuclear terrorism would be the only way to force Russian troops to leave the North Caucasus. The explosion of a nuclear bomb would clearly be the most intimidating of possible catastrophic terrorism scenarios because of the massive casualties, disruption, and psychological impact it would cause. In addition to trying to obtain a nuclear warhead, the radical separatists might also attempt to hijack a nuclear-armed submarine or seize a nuclear facility in order to coerce the Russian leadership into pulling out of Chechnya by threatening to disperse large quantities of radioactive materials.

This paper explains why Russian policy-makers should see catastrophic nuclear terrorism as an imminent threat. It exposes flaws in the existing system of nuclear security in Russia, including a lack of equipment that would prevent and detect theft and trafficking of nuclear materials. It then identifies those groups and leaders within the community of Chechnya-based separatists that have the capability and motivation to take advantage of these flaws and commit acts of catastrophic nuclear terrorism against Russia. The paper will outline the most probable scenarios of how these groups may implement their deadly plans.

The paper also identifies those capable of stealing and selling nuclear materials, as well as those motivated to do so, such as corrupt insiders at nuclear facilities, members of organized criminal groups, and radical separatists. It will argue that the recent cases of conventional thefts in the Russian military demonstrate that some officers may be persuaded to steal and sell weapons-grade materials, if not nuclear arms, which may end up in the hands of Chechnya-based radical separatists. As their chances in securing an independent Chechen state by conventional means worsen, committing a catastrophic nuclear terrorist attack will become an even more appealing option for them, and the likelihood of such an attack will continue to increase unless Russian leaders act to improve security immediately, not just at the country's nuclear arsenals, but at all facilities that house NBC materials and components that can be used in the construction of weapons of mass destruction. Finally, in an appendix, the paper offers recommendations on what Russian authorities should do to minimize the possibility of catastrophic nuclear terrorism.

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