Russia in Review

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of April 29 – May 6, 2011

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

No significant developments.

Iran nuclear issues:

No significant developments.

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

The Kremlin has warmly welcomed the U.S. operation that killed Osama bin Laden and urged Washington to use the occasion to explore joint efforts to fight terrorism. "Only a joint and united fight against global terrorism can achieve substantial results. Russia is ready to step up this type of cooperation," President Dmitry Medvedev's press service said in a statement. "We appreciate it that the Russian authorities were sufficiently informed before the official statement by U.S. President Barack Obama," the Foreign Ministry said Monday in a brief statement. “The Americans have done what had to be done. Evil has to be punished; there is no alternative," says Vladimir Vasilyev, head of the State Duma's security committee, which oversees internal antiterrorist operations. (AFP, Moscow Times, Christian Science Monitor, 05.04.11).
The elimination of Osama bin Laden has dealt a severe blow to Al-Qaida, said Anatoliy Safonov, the Russian president's special envoy for international cooperation in the fight against terrorism and transnational organized crime. But "it would be naive to imagine that the era of the fight against terrorism has ended with Bin-Laden’s elimination,” he said. (Interfax, 05.02.11).
The destruction of Osama bin Laden will not lead to the disruption of Al-Qaida, and a new leader of it will soon emerge, a representative of one of the Russian intelligence services said. "It definitely cannot be said that there are currently no Al-Qaida representatives in the Caucasus,” he said. “No special instructions have been received to step [up] (security measures in Russia) following the destruction of Bin-Laden," the source said. (RIA Novosti, 05.02.11).
The killing of Osama bin Laden will dent the Islamist insurgency in Russia's mainly Muslim North Caucasus, said Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, the leader of the Ingushetia region near Chechnya. (Reuters, 05.03.11).
Chief of the Russian General Staff, Nikolai Makarov, and chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Michael Mullen, on Friday signed a memorandum on anti-terror cooperation. During their meeting in St. Petersburg, Makarov said he and Mullen have developed proposals concerning a common approach to the fight against terrorism and other issues. Mullen replied that Russia and the United States must learn from the terror attacks in both countries and stressed the importance of information exchange and communications between the two countries. (Xinhua, 05.06.11).

Missile defense:

The United States and Romania announced an agreement on Tuesday on the location for basing American antimissile interceptors in Romania. The agreement immediately drew complaints from Russian officials. “We regret to say that practical steps on building the European segment of the U.S. global defense system are being made regardless of Russian-U.S. dialogue on missile-defense problems, which was started under a decision by President Dmitri Medvedev and President Barack Obama,” said a statement from Russia’s Foreign Ministry, according to the Interfax news service. (New York Times, 05.03.11).
The understandings between the United States and Romania on the deployment of antimissiles in Romania arouse apprehensions in Russia, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gen. Nikolai Makarov has told reporters in Brussels. (Interfax, 05.04.11).
U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Michael Mullen denied that a planned European anti-missile defense system would be targeted against Russia. He insisted that it would solely be used to defend Europe against potential attacks from countries such as Iran. (Xinhua, 05.06.11).
U.S. Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher said the U.S. system posed no threat to Russia. "It is a system that will defend NATO and, if Russia chooses to work with us in a cooperative manner, the system will defend Russia, too,” she said. (Moscow Times, 05.04.11).
Russian experts took in stride the news that U.S. missile killers will be deployed in Deveselu, Romania. Military experts say that it is phases three and four of the U.S. missile defense plan in Europe that Moscow is wary of, hence the constrained response to the news from Bucharest. "What worries Russia are the countries from which Russian missiles launched from Tatischevo and Kozelsk might be intercepted," said Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yevgeny Buzhinsky. "That means Poland and the Baltic states. As for Romania, our strategic nuclear forces are out [of] reach for missiles from this country." Colonel General (Ret.) Victor Yesin, Strategic Missile Forces former chief-of-staff, said: "They will probably be SM-3 Block IAs or IBs. If they are, then these can only intercept shorter- or intermediate-range missiles which Russia does not have. It follows that there is no threat to Russia from these missiles." (Kommersant, 05.05.11).
The United States is still not ready to give Russia distinct guarantees that American missile defense in Europe is not aimed against Russia's national interests, Russia's permanent representative at NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, said, commenting on the results of the May 5 talks on the European missile defense project between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Sergey Ryabkov and U.S. Under Secretary of State Ellen Tauscher. “While we are observing quite creative work through the military, it is, as before, stalling at the level of political decisions," Rogozin said. (Interfax, 05.06.11).
Word from the Pentagon is that Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher is no longer the lead Obama administration official for the U.S.-Russian talks on missile defenses. Instead, the Pentagon's Jim Miller, principal deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, is now the key negotiator, even though Mrs. Tauscher technically will be in charge overall. An aide to Mrs. Tauscher said Inside the Ring is "misinformed" about her position in the talks. (The Washington Times, 05.06.11).
U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden said: “Missile-defense cooperation can be the next big step forward, and an active discussion is underway.”(Atlantic Council, 05.03.11).

Nuclear arms control:

No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

The first of two North Stream gas pipelines, due to pump gas from Russia to Germany by way of the Baltic Sea, bypassing eastern Europe, has been completed, the consortium building it announced on Thursday. (AFP, 05.05.11).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

Russia has failed to remove the one remaining obstacle on its path to joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) after Georgia refused to give its approval for Russia's accession. Russia is expected to hold a new round of talks with Georgia in late May. (RIA Novosti, 05.04.11).

Other bilateral issues:

The United States and Russia are required to have eliminated their respective stockpiles of chemical warfare materials exactly one year from Friday, but are unlikely to meet this deadline. (GSN, 04.29.11).
Former Russian intelligence officer Alexander Poteyev who helped U.S. authorities arrest the Russian spy ring last summer has been charged in his homeland with high treason and desertion. (AP, 05.03.11).
The European Court of Human Rights handed a landmark victory to former arms control researcher Igor Sutyagin who was freed in a U.S. spy swap last year, ruling that he was detained for too long and denied a fair trial in 2004. (Moscow Times, 05.04.11).

II. Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who has made tamping down on corruption his signature issue, signed a bill on Wednesday outlawing foreign bribery and allowing prosecutors to seek large fines instead of prison sentences for graft. The law pushed Russia closer to accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation's anti-bribery convention, a key anti-corruption benchmark and a prerequisite for full membership to the OECD, which Russia has sought since 2009. (Wall Street Journal, 05.05.11).
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Friday issued a rallying call to Russia's political forces to unite around his ruling United Russia party in a possible bid to boost his own standing ahead of polls. In a marathon speech at a United Russia party meeting, Putin also came out with a surprise initiative to establish a government agency to promote young talents and embattled non-governmental organizations. The powerful prime minister said he wanted everyone from women's organizations to trade unions to help his party select candidates for parliamentary polls in December. Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said the call is meant to unite political forces around Putin rather than United Russia ahead of the December elections and beyond. (AFP, Gazeta.ru, 05.06.11).
Russia's annual budget is expected to lose $36 billion from Brent crude's $18 drop from a recent high of $127.02 a barrel, assuming prices don't rebound. The crude drop threatens to put the budget into deficit, since Finance Minister Kudrin has said the budget needs an average 2011 oil price of $115 to balance, although many economists say the crucial oil price is somewhat lower. (Wall Street Journal, 05.06.11).
Real wages fell in March for the first time in 16 months, down 3.4 per cent from the same month a year ago. (Moscow News, 05.06.11).
Nearly a third of Russia's banks are ill-prepared for a repeat of the global financial crisis, according to a stress test of the industry by its central bank. More than 300 of Russia's 900-plus banks would see their capital requirement fall below the 10 percent minimum - and therefore have their licenses revoked - if they found themselves in a similar downturn marked by a rapid outflow of deposits and a paralysis in interbank lending. (Financial Times, 05.04.11).
Russian manufacturing growth slowed in April to the weakest level since November, the largest monthly drop since December 2008, after export orders declined. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 52.1 from 55.6 in March, HSBC Holdings Plc said in a report today. (Bloomberg, 05.03.11).
BP PLC's Russian partners in the TNK-BP Ltd. joint venture said Friday they welcomed the decision by an arbitral tribunal permitting the U.K. oil company to proceed with a share swap with OAO Rosneft on condition that an Arctic exploration deal is done through TNK-BP. (Wall Street Journal, 05.06.11).
Russia's biggest Internet-search firm, which seeks to raise nearly $1 billion in a U.S. stock offering, said it was forced to provide the Kremlin's security service with information on donors to an anticorruption group. (Wall Street Journal, 05.04.11).
A Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker Timyr is returning to its home port after a radiation leak was detected. A statement from Rosatomflot, the shipping division of the state nuclear agency, said in a statement Thursday that a small increase in radiation in the ship reactor’s ventilation system was detected. The statement described the increase as “insignificant.” But it said that if the situation worsens, the reactor power could be reduced and the ship switched to diesel power. (AP, 05.05.11).

Defense:

Russia would deploy the new heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2018 to replace the world's most powerful Voevoda (NATO code name Satan) ICBM. The missile would be a completely new rocket and not just a clone of the Voevoda, former chief of staff of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces Victor Yesin said. According to the general, the missile of the fifth generation will be capable to reliably get over any anti-missile defense shield, including the space-based one. Yesin said that the new missile would be ready for launch "within seconds" upon receiving the order directly from the central control rooms, bypassing the intermediate levels of command. (Xinhua, 05.05.11).
Russia currently has nearly 2,430 strategic warheads assigned to operational strategic missiles and bombers, although most of the bomber weapons are probably in central storage. Another 3,700-5,400 nonstrategic warheads are in central storage, of which an estimated 2,080 can be delivered by nonstrategic aircraft, naval vessels and short-range missiles. Another 3,000 warheads are thought to be awaiting dismantlement, for a total inventory of some 11,000 nuclear warheads. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 05.04.11).
The volumes of deliveries of arms and radiation, chemical and biological protection means to the Russian Strategic Missile Troops' (RVSN) military units have increased substantially, Col Vadim Koval said. "Given the importance of the implementation of tasks of provision of alert duty service and nuclear security, over 40 t of radiation, chemical and biological protection means were supplied to RVSN in 2010, which is double the volume of deliveries in previous years," said Koval. (Interfax, 05.03.11).

Security and law-enforcement:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday gave his written approval to legislation that would establish a three-color terrorism threat alert system using blue to indicate an elevated level of danger, yellow to signify a higher warning level, and red to represent the highest threat assessment. (GSN, 05.03.01).
The Czech Interior Ministry announced today the arrest on April 6 in Prague and elsewhere in the Czech Republic of eight persons from Bulgaria, Moldova, and Dagestan suspected of providing false identity documents and weaponry to Dagestan’s Jamaat Shariat. (RFE/RL, 05.03.11).
Russian ultranationalist Nikita Tikhonov was sentenced to life in prison, and his girlfriend received an 18-year sentence Friday for the brazen daylight killing of prominent human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov and independent reporter Anastasia Baburova. (AP, 05.06.11).

Foreign affairs:

Serbia is among the most likely candidates to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a high-ranking military-diplomatic source based in Moscow said. (Interfax, 05.05.11).
The Kremlin has announced a three-day official visit by Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari to Russia beginning next Wednesday at the invitation of President Dmitry Medvedev. (Asia Times, 05.06.11).
Russia on Friday criticized a Western-led grouping that has pledged aid to the Libyan rebels fighting Muammar Gaddafi's forces, warning that it must not seek to overstep the U.N. Security Council's mandate. Russia is opposed to any ground operation in Libya, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that NATO could be targeting leader Muammar Gaddafi and his family. (Reuters, 05.06.11, 05.01.11).
Russia has welcomed the reconciliation between the two main Palestinian factions, saying a unified administration of the West Bank and Gaza Strip will help promote a peace settlement with Israel. (Bloomberg, 05.06.11).

Russia's neighbors:

Kazakhstan has ratified an agreement with the United States to allow the air transit of supplies and personnel destined for operations in Afghanistan. (AP, 05.03.11).
Ukraine, which sits atop tantalizingly large shale deposits, has opened talks with three Western energy giants -- Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Shell -- to search for shale gas. Ukraine's Parliament has also passed investor-friendly legislation aimed at opening its domestic natural gas market to shale gas producers. Meanwhile, the nation's president, Viktor F. Yanukovich, has signed a shale-gas exploration agreement with the United States and reached an accord with the European Union on energy transport that opens Ukraine's pipeline system to Western companies. (New York Times, 05.05.11).
Security forces in Kyrgyzstan may have participated in ethnic violence that killed hundreds in the south of the central Asian country last June, according to an independent international inquiry published on Tuesday. (Financial Times, 05.03.11).
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev has again called on the international community to outline a plan for a new world currency. (RFE/RL, 05.03.11).
Ernest Vardanyan, a journalist serving a 15-year jail sentence in Moldova's rebel Transdniestria region on a charge of treason, has been pardoned and freed. (Reuters, 05.05.11).

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of April 29 – May 6, 2011

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

· No significant developments.

Iran nuclear issues:

· No significant developments.

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

· No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

· The Kremlin has warmly welcomed the U.S. operation that killed Osama bin Laden and urged Washington to use the occasion to explore joint efforts to fight terrorism. "Only a joint and united fight against global terrorism can achieve substantial results. Russia is ready to step up this type of cooperation," President Dmitry Medvedev's press service said in a statement. "We appreciate it that the Russian authorities were sufficiently informed before the official statement by U.S. President Barack Obama," the Foreign Ministry said Monday in a brief statement. “The Americans have done what had to be done. Evil has to be punished; there is no alternative," says Vladimir Vasilyev, head of the State Duma's security committee, which oversees internal antiterrorist operations. (AFP, Moscow Times, Christian Science Monitor, 05.04.11).

· The elimination of Osama bin Laden has dealt a severe blow to Al-Qaida, said Anatoliy Safonov, the Russian president's special envoy for international cooperation in the fight against terrorism and transnational organized crime. But "it would be naive to imagine that the era of the fight against terrorism has ended with Bin-Laden’s elimination,” he said. (Interfax, 05.02.11).

· The destruction of Osama bin Laden will not lead to the disruption of Al-Qaida, and a new leader of it will soon emerge, a representative of one of the Russian intelligence services said. "It definitely cannot be said that there are currently no Al-Qaida representatives in the Caucasus,” he said. “No special instructions have been received to step [up] (security measures in Russia) following the destruction of Bin-Laden," the source said. (RIA Novosti, 05.02.11).

· The killing of Osama bin Laden will dent the Islamist insurgency in Russia's mainly Muslim North Caucasus, said Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, the leader of the Ingushetia region near Chechnya. (Reuters, 05.03.11).

· Chief of the Russian General Staff, Nikolai Makarov, and chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Michael Mullen, on Friday signed a memorandum on anti-terror cooperation. During their meeting in St. Petersburg, Makarov said he and Mullen have developed proposals concerning a common approach to the fight against terrorism and other issues. Mullen replied that Russia and the United States must learn from the terror attacks in both countries and stressed the importance of information exchange and communications between the two countries. (Xinhua, 05.06.11).

Missile defense:

· The United States and Romania announced an agreement on Tuesday on the location for basing American antimissile interceptors in Romania. The agreement immediately drew complaints from Russian officials. “We regret to say that practical steps on building the European segment of the U.S. global defense system are being made regardless of Russian-U.S. dialogue on missile-defense problems, which was started under a decision by President Dmitri Medvedev and President Barack Obama,” said a statement from Russia’s Foreign Ministry, according to the Interfax news service. (New York Times, 05.03.11).

· The understandings between the United States and Romania on the deployment of antimissiles in Romania arouse apprehensions in Russia, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gen. Nikolai Makarov has told reporters in Brussels. (Interfax, 05.04.11).

· U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Michael Mullen denied that a planned European anti-missile defense system would be targeted against Russia. He insisted that it would solely be used to defend Europe against potential attacks from countries such as Iran. (Xinhua, 05.06.11).

· U.S. Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher said the U.S. system posed no threat to Russia. "It is a system that will defend NATO and, if Russia chooses to work with us in a cooperative manner, the system will defend Russia, too,” she said. (Moscow Times, 05.04.11).

· Russian experts took in stride the news that U.S. missile killers will be deployed in Deveselu, Romania. Military experts say that it is phases three and four of the U.S. missile defense plan in Europe that Moscow is wary of, hence the constrained response to the news from Bucharest. "What worries Russia are the countries from which Russian missiles launched from Tatischevo and Kozelsk might be intercepted," said Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yevgeny Buzhinsky. "That means Poland and the Baltic states. As for Romania, our strategic nuclear forces are out [of] reach for missiles from this country." Colonel General (Ret.) Victor Yesin, Strategic Missile Forces former chief-of-staff, said: "They will probably be SM-3 Block IAs or IBs. If they are, then these can only intercept shorter- or intermediate-range missiles which Russia does not have. It follows that there is no threat to Russia from these missiles." (Kommersant, 05.05.11).

· The United States is still not ready to give Russia distinct guarantees that American missile defense in Europe is not aimed against Russia's national interests, Russia's permanent representative at NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, said, commenting on the results of the May 5 talks on the European missile defense project between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Sergey Ryabkov and U.S. Under Secretary of State Ellen Tauscher. “While we are observing quite creative work through the military, it is, as before, stalling at the level of political decisions," Rogozin said. (Interfax, 05.06.11).

· Word from the Pentagon is that Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher is no longer the lead Obama administration official for the U.S.-Russian talks on missile defenses. Instead, the Pentagon's Jim Miller, principal deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, is now the key negotiator, even though Mrs. Tauscher technically will be in charge overall. An aide to Mrs. Tauscher said Inside the Ring is "misinformed" about her position in the talks. (The Washington Times, 05.06.11).

· U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden said: “Missile-defense cooperation can be the next big step forward, and an active discussion is underway.”(Atlantic Council, 05.03.11).

Nuclear arms control:

· No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

· The first of two North Stream gas pipelines, due to pump gas from Russia to Germany by way of the Baltic Sea, bypassing eastern Europe, has been completed, the consortium building it announced on Thursday. (AFP, 05.05.11).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

· Russia has failed to remove the one remaining obstacle on its path to joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) after Georgia refused to give its approval for Russia's accession. Russia is expected to hold a new round of talks with Georgia in late May. (RIA Novosti, 05.04.11).

Other bilateral issues:

· The United States and Russia are required to have eliminated their respective stockpiles of chemical warfare materials exactly one year from Friday, but are unlikely to meet this deadline. (GSN, 04.29.11).

· Former Russian intelligence officer Alexander Poteyev who helped U.S. authorities arrest the Russian spy ring last summer has been charged in his homeland with high treason and desertion. (AP, 05.03.11).

· The European Court of Human Rights handed a landmark victory to former arms control researcher Igor Sutyagin who was freed in a U.S. spy swap last year, ruling that he was detained for too long and denied a fair trial in 2004. (Moscow Times, 05.04.11).

II. Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

· Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who has made tamping down on corruption his signature issue, signed a bill on Wednesday outlawing foreign bribery and allowing prosecutors to seek large fines instead of prison sentences for graft. The law pushed Russia closer to accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation's anti-bribery convention, a key anti-corruption benchmark and a prerequisite for full membership to the OECD, which Russia has sought since 2009. (Wall Street Journal, 05.05.11).

· Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Friday issued a rallying call to Russia's political forces to unite around his ruling United Russia party in a possible bid to boost his own standing ahead of polls. In a marathon speech at a United Russia party meeting, Putin also came out with a surprise initiative to establish a government agency to promote young talents and embattled non-governmental organizations. The powerful prime minister said he wanted everyone from women's organizations to trade unions to help his party select candidates for parliamentary polls in December. Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said the call is meant to unite political forces around Putin rather than United Russia ahead of the December elections and beyond. (AFP, Gazeta.ru, 05.06.11).

· Russia's annual budget is expected to lose $36 billion from Brent crude's $18 drop from a recent high of $127.02 a barrel, assuming prices don't rebound. The crude drop threatens to put the budget into deficit, since Finance Minister Kudrin has said the budget needs an average 2011 oil price of $115 to balance, although many economists say the crucial oil price is somewhat lower. (Wall Street Journal, 05.06.11).

· Real wages fell in March for the first time in 16 months, down 3.4 per cent from the same month a year ago. (Moscow News, 05.06.11).

· Nearly a third of Russia's banks are ill-prepared for a repeat of the global financial crisis, according to a stress test of the industry by its central bank. More than 300 of Russia's 900-plus banks would see their capital requirement fall below the 10 percent minimum - and therefore have their licenses revoked - if they found themselves in a similar downturn marked by a rapid outflow of deposits and a paralysis in interbank lending. (Financial Times, 05.04.11).

· Russian manufacturing growth slowed in April to the weakest level since November, the largest monthly drop since December 2008, after export orders declined. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 52.1 from 55.6 in March, HSBC Holdings Plc said in a report today. (Bloomberg, 05.03.11).

· BP PLC's Russian partners in the TNK-BP Ltd. joint venture said Friday they welcomed the decision by an arbitral tribunal permitting the U.K. oil company to proceed with a share swap with OAO Rosneft on condition that an Arctic exploration deal is done through TNK-BP. (Wall Street Journal, 05.06.11).

· Russia's biggest Internet-search firm, which seeks to raise nearly $1 billion in a U.S. stock offering, said it was forced to provide the Kremlin's security service with information on donors to an anticorruption group. (Wall Street Journal, 05.04.11).

· A Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker Timyr is returning to its home port after a radiation leak was detected. A statement from Rosatomflot, the shipping division of the state nuclear agency, said in a statement Thursday that a small increase in radiation in the ship reactor’s ventilation system was detected. The statement described the increase as “insignificant.” But it said that if the situation worsens, the reactor power could be reduced and the ship switched to diesel power. (AP, 05.05.11).

Defense:

· Russia would deploy the new heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2018 to replace the world's most powerful Voevoda (NATO code name Satan) ICBM. The missile would be a completely new rocket and not just a clone of the Voevoda, former chief of staff of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces Victor Yesin said. According to the general, the missile of the fifth generation will be capable to reliably get over any anti-missile defense shield, including the space-based one. Yesin said that the new missile would be ready for launch "within seconds" upon receiving the order directly from the central control rooms, bypassing the intermediate levels of command. (Xinhua, 05.05.11).

· Russia currently has nearly 2,430 strategic warheads assigned to operational strategic missiles and bombers, although most of the bomber weapons are probably in central storage. Another 3,700-5,400 nonstrategic warheads are in central storage, of which an estimated 2,080 can be delivered by nonstrategic aircraft, naval vessels and short-range missiles. Another 3,000 warheads are thought to be awaiting dismantlement, for a total inventory of some 11,000 nuclear warheads. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 05.04.11).

· The volumes of deliveries of arms and radiation, chemical and biological protection means to the Russian Strategic Missile Troops' (RVSN) military units have increased substantially, Col Vadim Koval said. "Given the importance of the implementation of tasks of provision of alert duty service and nuclear security, over 40 t of radiation, chemical and biological protection means were supplied to RVSN in 2010, which is double the volume of deliveries in previous years," said Koval. (Interfax, 05.03.11).

Security and law-enforcement:

· Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday gave his written approval to legislation that would establish a three-color terrorism threat alert system using blue to indicate an elevated level of danger, yellow to signify a higher warning level, and red to represent the highest threat assessment. (GSN, 05.03.01).

· The Czech Interior Ministry announced today the arrest on April 6 in Prague and elsewhere in the Czech Republic of eight persons from Bulgaria, Moldova, and Dagestan suspected of providing false identity documents and weaponry to Dagestan’s Jamaat Shariat. (RFE/RL, 05.03.11).

· Russian ultranationalist Nikita Tikhonov was sentenced to life in prison, and his girlfriend received an 18-year sentence Friday for the brazen daylight killing of prominent human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov and independent reporter Anastasia Baburova. (AP, 05.06.11).

Foreign affairs:

· Serbia is among the most likely candidates to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a high-ranking military-diplomatic source based in Moscow said. (Interfax, 05.05.11).

· The Kremlin has announced a three-day official visit by Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari to Russia beginning next Wednesday at the invitation of President Dmitry Medvedev. (Asia Times, 05.06.11).

· Russia on Friday criticized a Western-led grouping that has pledged aid to the Libyan rebels fighting Muammar Gaddafi's forces, warning that it must not seek to overstep the U.N. Security Council's mandate. Russia is opposed to any ground operation in Libya, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that NATO could be targeting leader Muammar Gaddafi and his family. (Reuters, 05.06.11, 05.01.11).

· Russia has welcomed the reconciliation between the two main Palestinian factions, saying a unified administration of the West Bank and Gaza Strip will help promote a peace settlement with Israel. (Bloomberg, 05.06.11).

Russia's neighbors:

· Kazakhstan has ratified an agreement with the United States to allow the air transit of supplies and personnel destined for operations in Afghanistan. (AP, 05.03.11).

· Ukraine, which sits atop tantalizingly large shale deposits, has opened talks with three Western energy giants -- Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Shell -- to search for shale gas. Ukraine's Parliament has also passed investor-friendly legislation aimed at opening its domestic natural gas market to shale gas producers. Meanwhile, the nation's president, Viktor F. Yanukovich, has signed a shale-gas exploration agreement with the United States and reached an accord with the European Union on energy transport that opens Ukraine's pipeline system to Western companies. (New York Times, 05.05.11).

· Security forces in Kyrgyzstan may have participated in ethnic violence that killed hundreds in the south of the central Asian country last June, according to an independent international inquiry published on Tuesday. (Financial Times, 05.03.11).

· Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev has again called on the international community to outline a plan for a new world currency. (RFE/RL, 05.03.11).

· Ernest Vardanyan, a journalist serving a 15-year jail sentence in Moldova's rebel Transdniestria region on a charge of treason, has been pardoned and freed. (Reuters, 05.05.11).

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of April 29 – May 6, 2011

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

No significant developments.

Iran nuclear issues:

No significant developments.

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

The Kremlin has warmly welcomed the U.S. operation that killed Osama bin Laden and urged Washington to use the occasion to explore joint efforts to fight terrorism. "Only a joint and united fight against global terrorism can achieve substantial results. Russia is ready to step up this type of cooperation," President Dmitry Medvedev's press service said in a statement. "We appreciate it that the Russian authorities were sufficiently informed before the official statement by U.S. President Barack Obama," the Foreign Ministry said Monday in a brief statement. “The Americans have done what had to be done. Evil has to be punished; there is no alternative," says Vladimir Vasilyev, head of the State Duma's security committee, which oversees internal antiterrorist operations. (AFP, Moscow Times, Christian Science Monitor, 05.04.11).
The elimination of Osama bin Laden has dealt a severe blow to Al-Qaida, said Anatoliy Safonov, the Russian president's special envoy for international cooperation in the fight against terrorism and transnational organized crime. But "it would be naive to imagine that the era of the fight against terrorism has ended with Bin-Laden’s elimination,” he said. (Interfax, 05.02.11).
The destruction of Osama bin Laden will not lead to the disruption of Al-Qaida, and a new leader of it will soon emerge, a representative of one of the Russian intelligence services said. "It definitely cannot be said that there are currently no Al-Qaida representatives in the Caucasus,” he said. “No special instructions have been received to step [up] (security measures in Russia) following the destruction of Bin-Laden," the source said. (RIA Novosti, 05.02.11).
The killing of Osama bin Laden will dent the Islamist insurgency in Russia's mainly Muslim North Caucasus, said Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, the leader of the Ingushetia region near Chechnya. (Reuters, 05.03.11).
Chief of the Russian General Staff, Nikolai Makarov, and chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Michael Mullen, on Friday signed a memorandum on anti-terror cooperation. During their meeting in St. Petersburg, Makarov said he and Mullen have developed proposals concerning a common approach to the fight against terrorism and other issues. Mullen replied that Russia and the United States must learn from the terror attacks in both countries and stressed the importance of information exchange and communications between the two countries. (Xinhua, 05.06.11).

Missile defense:

The United States and Romania announced an agreement on Tuesday on the location for basing American antimissile interceptors in Romania. The agreement immediately drew complaints from Russian officials. “We regret to say that practical steps on building the European segment of the U.S. global defense system are being made regardless of Russian-U.S. dialogue on missile-defense problems, which was started under a decision by President Dmitri Medvedev and President Barack Obama,” said a statement from Russia’s Foreign Ministry, according to the Interfax news service. (New York Times, 05.03.11).
The understandings between the United States and Romania on the deployment of antimissiles in Romania arouse apprehensions in Russia, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gen. Nikolai Makarov has told reporters in Brussels. (Interfax, 05.04.11).
U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Michael Mullen denied that a planned European anti-missile defense system would be targeted against Russia. He insisted that it would solely be used to defend Europe against potential attacks from countries such as Iran. (Xinhua, 05.06.11).
U.S. Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher said the U.S. system posed no threat to Russia. "It is a system that will defend NATO and, if Russia chooses to work with us in a cooperative manner, the system will defend Russia, too,” she said. (Moscow Times, 05.04.11).
Russian experts took in stride the news that U.S. missile killers will be deployed in Deveselu, Romania. Military experts say that it is phases three and four of the U.S. missile defense plan in Europe that Moscow is wary of, hence the constrained response to the news from Bucharest. "What worries Russia are the countries from which Russian missiles launched from Tatischevo and Kozelsk might be intercepted," said Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yevgeny Buzhinsky. "That means Poland and the Baltic states. As for Romania, our strategic nuclear forces are out [of] reach for missiles from this country." Colonel General (Ret.) Victor Yesin, Strategic Missile Forces former chief-of-staff, said: "They will probably be SM-3 Block IAs or IBs. If they are, then these can only intercept shorter- or intermediate-range missiles which Russia does not have. It follows that there is no threat to Russia from these missiles." (Kommersant, 05.05.11).
The United States is still not ready to give Russia distinct guarantees that American missile defense in Europe is not aimed against Russia's national interests, Russia's permanent representative at NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, said, commenting on the results of the May 5 talks on the European missile defense project between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Sergey Ryabkov and U.S. Under Secretary of State Ellen Tauscher. “While we are observing quite creative work through the military, it is, as before, stalling at the level of political decisions," Rogozin said. (Interfax, 05.06.11).
Word from the Pentagon is that Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher is no longer the lead Obama administration official for the U.S.-Russian talks on missile defenses. Instead, the Pentagon's Jim Miller, principal deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, is now the key negotiator, even though Mrs. Tauscher technically will be in charge overall. An aide to Mrs. Tauscher said Inside the Ring is "misinformed" about her position in the talks. (The Washington Times, 05.06.11).
U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden said: “Missile-defense cooperation can be the next big step forward, and an active discussion is underway.”(Atlantic Council, 05.03.11).

Nuclear arms control:

No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

The first of two North Stream gas pipelines, due to pump gas from Russia to Germany by way of the Baltic Sea, bypassing eastern Europe, has been completed, the consortium building it announced on Thursday. (AFP, 05.05.11).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

Russia has failed to remove the one remaining obstacle on its path to joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) after Georgia refused to give its approval for Russia's accession. Russia is expected to hold a new round of talks with Georgia in late May. (RIA Novosti, 05.04.11).

Other bilateral issues:

The United States and Russia are required to have eliminated their respective stockpiles of chemical warfare materials exactly one year from Friday, but are unlikely to meet this deadline. (GSN, 04.29.11).
Former Russian intelligence officer Alexander Poteyev who helped U.S. authorities arrest the Russian spy ring last summer has been charged in his homeland with high treason and desertion. (AP, 05.03.11).
The European Court of Human Rights handed a landmark victory to former arms control researcher Igor Sutyagin who was freed in a U.S. spy swap last year, ruling that he was detained for too long and denied a fair trial in 2004. (Moscow Times, 05.04.11).

II. Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who has made tamping down on corruption his signature issue, signed a bill on Wednesday outlawing foreign bribery and allowing prosecutors to seek large fines instead of prison sentences for graft. The law pushed Russia closer to accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation's anti-bribery convention, a key anti-corruption benchmark and a prerequisite for full membership to the OECD, which Russia has sought since 2009. (Wall Street Journal, 05.05.11).
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Friday issued a rallying call to Russia's political forces to unite around his ruling United Russia party in a possible bid to boost his own standing ahead of polls. In a marathon speech at a United Russia party meeting, Putin also came out with a surprise initiative to establish a government agency to promote young talents and embattled non-governmental organizations. The powerful prime minister said he wanted everyone from women's organizations to trade unions to help his party select candidates for parliamentary polls in December. Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said the call is meant to unite political forces around Putin rather than United Russia ahead of the December elections and beyond. (AFP, Gazeta.ru, 05.06.11).
Russia's annual budget is expected to lose $36 billion from Brent crude's $18 drop from a recent high of $127.02 a barrel, assuming prices don't rebound. The crude drop threatens to put the budget into deficit, since Finance Minister Kudrin has said the budget needs an average 2011 oil price of $115 to balance, although many economists say the crucial oil price is somewhat lower. (Wall Street Journal, 05.06.11).
Real wages fell in March for the first time in 16 months, down 3.4 per cent from the same month a year ago. (Moscow News, 05.06.11).
Nearly a third of Russia's banks are ill-prepared for a repeat of the global financial crisis, according to a stress test of the industry by its central bank. More than 300 of Russia's 900-plus banks would see their capital requirement fall below the 10 percent minimum - and therefore have their licenses revoked - if they found themselves in a similar downturn marked by a rapid outflow of deposits and a paralysis in interbank lending. (Financial Times, 05.04.11).
Russian manufacturing growth slowed in April to the weakest level since November, the largest monthly drop since December 2008, after export orders declined. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 52.1 from 55.6 in March, HSBC Holdings Plc said in a report today. (Bloomberg, 05.03.11).
BP PLC's Russian partners in the TNK-BP Ltd. joint venture said Friday they welcomed the decision by an arbitral tribunal permitting the U.K. oil company to proceed with a share swap with OAO Rosneft on condition that an Arctic exploration deal is done through TNK-BP. (Wall Street Journal, 05.06.11).
Russia's biggest Internet-search firm, which seeks to raise nearly $1 billion in a U.S. stock offering, said it was forced to provide the Kremlin's security service with information on donors to an anticorruption group. (Wall Street Journal, 05.04.11).
A Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker Timyr is returning to its home port after a radiation leak was detected. A statement from Rosatomflot, the shipping division of the state nuclear agency, said in a statement Thursday that a small increase in radiation in the ship reactor’s ventilation system was detected. The statement described the increase as “insignificant.” But it said that if the situation worsens, the reactor power could be reduced and the ship switched to diesel power. (AP, 05.05.11).

Defense:

Russia would deploy the new heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2018 to replace the world's most powerful Voevoda (NATO code name Satan) ICBM. The missile would be a completely new rocket and not just a clone of the Voevoda, former chief of staff of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces Victor Yesin said. According to the general, the missile of the fifth generation will be capable to reliably get over any anti-missile defense shield, including the space-based one. Yesin said that the new missile would be ready for launch "within seconds" upon receiving the order directly from the central control rooms, bypassing the intermediate levels of command. (Xinhua, 05.05.11).
Russia currently has nearly 2,430 strategic warheads assigned to operational strategic missiles and bombers, although most of the bomber weapons are probably in central storage. Another 3,700-5,400 nonstrategic warheads are in central storage, of which an estimated 2,080 can be delivered by nonstrategic aircraft, naval vessels and short-range missiles. Another 3,000 warheads are thought to be awaiting dismantlement, for a total inventory of some 11,000 nuclear warheads. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 05.04.11).
The volumes of deliveries of arms and radiation, chemical and biological protection means to the Russian Strategic Missile Troops' (RVSN) military units have increased substantially, Col Vadim Koval said. "Given the importance of the implementation of tasks of provision of alert duty service and nuclear security, over 40 t of radiation, chemical and biological protection means were supplied to RVSN in 2010, which is double the volume of deliveries in previous years," said Koval. (Interfax, 05.03.11).

Security and law-enforcement:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday gave his written approval to legislation that would establish a three-color terrorism threat alert system using blue to indicate an elevated level of danger, yellow to signify a higher warning level, and red to represent the highest threat assessment. (GSN, 05.03.01).
The Czech Interior Ministry announced today the arrest on April 6 in Prague and elsewhere in the Czech Republic of eight persons from Bulgaria, Moldova, and Dagestan suspected of providing false identity documents and weaponry to Dagestan’s Jamaat Shariat. (RFE/RL, 05.03.11).
Russian ultranationalist Nikita Tikhonov was sentenced to life in prison, and his girlfriend received an 18-year sentence Friday for the brazen daylight killing of prominent human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov and independent reporter Anastasia Baburova. (AP, 05.06.11).

Foreign affairs:

Serbia is among the most likely candidates to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a high-ranking military-diplomatic source based in Moscow said. (Interfax, 05.05.11).
The Kremlin has announced a three-day official visit by Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari to Russia beginning next Wednesday at the invitation of President Dmitry Medvedev. (Asia Times, 05.06.11).
Russia on Friday criticized a Western-led grouping that has pledged aid to the Libyan rebels fighting Muammar Gaddafi's forces, warning that it must not seek to overstep the U.N. Security Council's mandate. Russia is opposed to any ground operation in Libya, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that NATO could be targeting leader Muammar Gaddafi and his family. (Reuters, 05.06.11, 05.01.11).
Russia has welcomed the reconciliation between the two main Palestinian factions, saying a unified administration of the West Bank and Gaza Strip will help promote a peace settlement with Israel. (Bloomberg, 05.06.11).

Russia's neighbors:

Kazakhstan has ratified an agreement with the United States to allow the air transit of supplies and personnel destined for operations in Afghanistan. (AP, 05.03.11).
Ukraine, which sits atop tantalizingly large shale deposits, has opened talks with three Western energy giants -- Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Shell -- to search for shale gas. Ukraine's Parliament has also passed investor-friendly legislation aimed at opening its domestic natural gas market to shale gas producers. Meanwhile, the nation's president, Viktor F. Yanukovich, has signed a shale-gas exploration agreement with the United States and reached an accord with the European Union on energy transport that opens Ukraine's pipeline system to Western companies. (New York Times, 05.05.11).
Security forces in Kyrgyzstan may have participated in ethnic violence that killed hundreds in the south of the central Asian country last June, according to an independent international inquiry published on Tuesday. (Financial Times, 05.03.11).
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev has again called on the international community to outline a plan for a new world currency. (RFE/RL, 05.03.11).
Ernest Vardanyan, a journalist serving a 15-year jail sentence in Moldova's rebel Transdniestria region on a charge of treason, has been pardoned and freed. (Reuters, 05.05.11).