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RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
August 18, 1995, No. 8
To help track significant developments affecting
Russian elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions
Project offers a simplified summary of recent political
events, including a "betting chart." Individual''s estimates
of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results are
presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because
anyone entertains illusions about precision, but to make the
estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.
I. Estimated Probabilities of Duma Elections in December
1995
A. Individuals Likelihood Change From Last Week
Graham Allison (8/11): 85% +5%
Director
SDI Project
Sergei Grigoriev (8/17): 75% +10%
SDI Project Fellow
Former Spokesman for Gorbachev
John Lloyd (8/17) 75%
Former Moscow Bureau Chief
Financial Times
Matthew Lantz (8/17) 85% +5%
SDI Project
B. Recent Events that Favor Parliamentary Elections:
DUMA PASSES DISTRICT BOUNDARY LAW IN SPECIAL
SESSION: In a special session on August 12, the Duma
overrode the Federation Council (Upper House) veto of
the boundary law for district elections by a vote of
350 for, 5 against, and 2 abstaining. 300 votes were
needed. The unexpected turnout and size of the unity
demonstrated that the entire Duma seeks elections held
in accordance with the law. Many feared using the old
1993 districts would give President Yeltsin the
opportunity to overturn the results if they were not to
his favor. Yeltsin is expected to sign the law within
the next few days. (omri, 8/10, 8/12/95)
SVERDLOVSK REGION GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS HELD:
No candidate attained more than 50% of vote. A runoff
is scheduled on August 20 between the Chair of the
Regional Duma, EDUARD ROSSELL (29%), and Sverdlovsk
Regional Chair ALEXEI STRAKLOV (26%), the local leader
of Prime Minister Chernomyrdin''s Our Home Is Russia
(ROH). The election was the first and likely last test
of ROH before the parliamentary elections in December.
Straklov had three times as much money as Rossell.
Voter turnout was approximately 40%, well above the
required 25%. (omri, 8/7, 8/8/95)
CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION (CEC) DETAILS CAMPAIGN
SPENDING REQUIREMENTS: Instructions were in line with
the election law passed on June 21. Campaign finances
must be kept in a special temporary Sberbank account.
The law dictates how bank accounts may be opened,
limits on individual contributions, how money must be
deposited, and how candidates must register receipts
and expenditures of campaign funds. Failure to comply
with the law may mean having a candidate or party''s
registration revoked. (omri, 8/10/95)
C. Recent Events That Raise Doubts About Parliamentary
Elections:
YELTSIN VETOES FEDERATION COUNCIL ELECTION LAW:
The law which provided the election of deputies to the
upper house was vetoed because it made the chamber too
similar to the Duma. Currently, the chamber is formed
by appointment from regional governors and heads of
regional legislatures. The Duma claims it will not
back down on its desire to see the upper house elected,
but will work for a settlement in the conciliatory
commission slated for August 28. (omri, 8/14, 8/15/95)
CEC HEAD NIKOLAI RYABOV IN CONFLICT WITH "FOR FAIR
ELECTIONS": For Fair Elections, led by Duma deputies,
ANATOLY SHABAD and VIKTOR SHEINIS seek independent
observers to conduct a parallel vote count in the
December elections to ensure accuracy of results.
Ryabov responded angrily, "Not even a banana republic
would allow a parallel vote count." He claimed For
Fair Elections is "just a small group of people
engaging in a provocation to undermine elections." He
alluded to the group having CIA ties. Shabad
responded, "The fact we want to exercise public control
does not mean we were suspecting him of anything...I
wonder why he reacted to our suggestion in such an
angry way." (Moscow Times, 7/30/95)
II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in
June
A. Individual Likelihood Change From Last Week
Graham Allison 60% +5%
Sergei Grigoriev 60%
John Lloyd 55%
Matthew Lantz 50%
III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the
Likely Outcomes?
A. Individuals
Graham Allison John Lloyd
Our Home is Russia (NDR) 25% CP-RF 20%
Yabloko 19% ROH 20%
Communist Party (CP-RF) 15% Yabloko 14%
Sergei Grigoriev Matthew Lantz
Communist Party (CP-RF) 20% CP-RF 20%
Our Home is Russia (ROH) 15% ROH 16%
(Chernomyrdin) Agrarian 12%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky) 15% Lebed 12%
Congress of Russian Communities Yabloko 10%
(RKO -Gen. Lebed) 13% LDPR 9%
Agrarian Party 12% Women of R 6%
Rybkin Bloc 8% RChoice 5%
Women of Russia 7% Rybkin Bloc 5%
Liberal Democratic Party 5% Extreme Nationalists
(Zhirinovsky) 4%
Russia''s Choice 5%
Others:
Oleg Soskovets (member ROH): ROH hopes to gain 30%
of Duma seats.
Ivan Rybkin (Duma Speaker): The three centrist
groups (his bloc, Our Home is
Russia and the Agrarians) will
get 50% of the Duma seats.
Mikhail Lapshin (Agrarian Party Leader): Our party,
with the Communists,
will achieve 50% of
the Duma seats.
B. New Evidence:
OUR HOME IS RUSSIA (ROH) PARTY CONFERENCE: At the
second party conference district candidates were not
selected because of the lack of a district boundary
law. A conference in early September will do this.
The party laid out its platform which stated relations
with the government will be one of "critical
solidarity." The party will not dissolve itself of the
government, but also will not back the government
uncritically. Speaking prior to the conference, Prime
Minister VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN stated the party should
embrace being called the "Party of Power." "We should
be a party of power elected by the people." Chairman
of the Party Program, ALEXANDER SHOKIN, claims the
party seeks to pay state debts to industry and
compensate citizens, especially the elderly.
Comments on the conference said that ROH is occupying
the conservative center, which has been void for two
years. The party''s goal is to win the support of the
regional leaders. However, Kommersant Daily reported
the party''s image is being defined not by its leaders
and their vision, but by opponents and the media. The
leaders are still uncertain about strategy and tactics
of the movement. (Segodnya, 8/9/95, omri, 8/14/95,
Moskovsky Komsomolets, 8/16/95, Kommersant Daily,
8/16/95)
RYBKIN BLOC STILL DISORGANIZED: Duma Speaker IVAN
RYBKIN is still having trouble organizing his bloc,
which is to play the center-left counterpart to the
Chernomyrdin Bloc. Despite 50 small parties, few big
names have joined the group. VASILY LIPITSY''S Social
Democratic Union has left the bloc opting to campaign
independently because the bloc was not socialist
enough. A party congress is planned for early
September. Rybkin is holding half of the bloc''s
election slate for the Agrarian Party, which has
refused to join his bloc. Rybkin claims he will
cooperate with the Agrarians in the regions and does
not want to see the party split. One Western diplomat
said of Rybkin''s formation woes, "This is really just
Yeltsin giving people the appearance of choice. In
fact, these blocs are the just the same." (Segodnya,
8/16/95, omri, 8/15/95, Moscow Times 7/30/95)
LIKELY FINANCIAL BACKING FOR PARTIES: A report in
August 17th''s Izvestia claimed Yabloko, Russia''s
Choice, and Our Home is Russia are more likely to
obtain foreign support than the Communists. Domestic
banks are likely to support "rightist" parties, while
agrarian interests will support Communist parties and
their allies. In two surprising results, the military-
industrial complex is not united in its support of GEN.
ALEXANDER LEBED''S Congress of Russian Communities,
preferring to support an array of parties. Likewise,
Gazprom, the natural gas giant that Prime Minister
VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN used to lead, may divide its
support. (omri, 8/17/95)
POSSIBILITY OF SPLIT IN AGRARIAN PARTY: VASILY
STARODUBTSEV, chair of the Agrarian Union, part of the
Agrarian Party, is unhappy with Agrarian Party leader
MIKHAIL LAPSHIN''S election list selection process.
Lapshin wants all candidates confirmed by the Agrarian
Party Congress. Starodubtsev claims this violates the
Agrarian Union''s rights and Lapshin seeks to be the
sole leader of the party without taking into account
the party partners. Lapshin claims his party,
cooperating with the Communists, can win 50% of the
Duma. His party will also support a joint presidential
candidate with the Communists. (omri, 8/8/95)
ALLIANCE OF COMMUNIST PARTIES UNLIKELY: YURI
SEVENARD, a Duma deputy of the Communist Party of the
Russian Federation (CP-RF), believes his party will not
ally with other Communist parties. Although a united
Communist Party would be desirable, it is impossible
given the radical contradiction in views between the
parties. (omri, 8/9/95)
GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED ANNOUNCES CORNERSTONES OF
RUSSIAN STATEHOOD: They include spiritual might of the
Russian church, creative spirit of Russian people, and
valor of the Russian army. Lebed claims these have
been neglected or destroyed by the Russian state
authorities. (Moskovsky Pravda, 8/15/95)
EX-RUSSIAN VICE PRESIDENT ALEXANDER RUTSKOI
AGGRESSIVELY HITS CAMPAIGN TRAIL FOR DERZHAVA MOVEMENT:
Rutskoi believes his movement can win the majority of
the parliamentary seats. He has been the most active
campaigner thus far, by already visiting 49 districts.
His campaign is being managed by VIKTOR KOBALEV, who
organized Zhirinovsky''s successful 1993 campaign.
Derzhava believes in the unacceptability of democratic
principles for the Russian people. The party platform
calls for a return of orthodox religion as a basis for
Russian statehood and restoration of the Russian
empire. The future Russian state should be a
multinational state with Russian people at its core and
led by a president of national/orthodox orientation.
(omri 8/10/95, Zavtra, 8/1/95)
DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA (DPR) TO CAMPAIGN ON
TWO PARTY LISTS: Party Chairman SERGEI GLAZYEV will run
on YURI SKOKOV''S and ALEXANDER LEBED''S Congress of
Russian Communities (RKO) list. STANISLAV GOVORUKIN,
leader of the party''s Duma faction will run on
ophthalmologist SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV''S Party of Popular
Self Government list. In 1993 the DPR barely cleared
the 5% hurdle to get into the Duma. The new strategy
is to ensure as much DPR representation as possible in
the Duma. (omri, 8/8/95)
FORMER FINANCE MINISTER BORIS FEDOROV''S FORWARD,
RUSSIA! MOVEMENT ANNOUNCES ELECTION LIST: Fedorov holds
the first position. Ms. BELA DENISENKO, Chairwoman of
the Duma Committee on Health Care is second, and in a
surprise, ALEXANDER VLADISLAVLEV, leader of the Russian
Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, is third.
(omri, 8/15/95)
TWO MUSLIM ORGANIZATIONS PREPARE FOR ELECTIONS:
The union of Muslims, led by AKMET KHALITOV, organized
this year to represent the interests of muslims of
various political orientation through 50 regional
organizations. The All Russian "Nur" (light), led by
KHALIT YAKHIN, also claims to represent muslims and
says it has 47 regional organizations. Both men have
past ties with VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY''S Liberal
Democratic Party. (omri, 8/10/95)
IV. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?
A. Individuals
Matthew Lantz Sergei Grigoriev
Cherno 30% Lebed 25-30%
Lebed 20% Cherno 20%
Yavlinsky 16% Yavlinsky 15%
Yeltsin 14% Ryzhkov 10%
Zhirinovsky 5% Yeltsin 10%
Zyuganov 3% Zyuganov 8%
Rybkin 3% Zhirinovsky 5%
Luzhkov 3%
Other 6%
YELTSIN''S REELECTION CHANCES ASSESSED: ILYA
ROYTMAN, a political scientist and key member of
Committee to Nominate Yeltsin, says there are no other
feasible candidates: Yavlinsky may not get the support
of the Communists, Lebed does not have the
organization, and Chernomyrdin will not run against
Yeltsin. If Yeltsin decrees Chernomyrdin as his
successor, the Committee will work for him. ALEXANDER
LIVSHITS, a Yeltsin advisor says results of a study on
Yeltsin''s reelection prospects will be completed in
September, and Yeltsin''s staff will advise him
accordingly. (Kommersant Daily, 8/11/95)
V. Poll Results For Elections.
The Financial Times reported on July 26, 1995 the
results of a recent poll of 1600 urban residents
conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Center saying
that less than 10% of respondents had even heard of
either of the two centrist blocs (Our Home Is Russia
and Rybkin''s center-left bloc).
The Financial Times reported a poll on August 1,
1995 conducted face-to-face in April by the All Russian
Center For Public Opinion, backed by the University of
Strathclyde stating that _ of respondents do not plan
to vote, _ do not know who they will vote for, and 39%
will scatter their votes between 14 groups. In the
poll Yeltsin got a 10% approval rating and a 72%
disapproval rating. 83% rejected using force to
protect ethnic Russians abroad.
Segodnya reported a poll on August 10, 1995
conducted by the All Russian Center For Public Research
conducted in June stating that Yabloko enjoys the
highest support of the electorate.
Unattributed poll taken in every region discussed
if in a second round presidential election ALEXANDER
LEBED were pitted against Yeltsin, Zhirinovsky, or
Yavlinsky, what would the results be? Against Yeltsin
and Zhirinovsky, Lebed won in every region. Against
Yavlinsky, Lebed won in every region except Moscow and
St. Petersburg.
VI. ANALYSIS
ON THE ELECTION BOUNDARIES: With the passage of
the district elections boundary law, the December
parliamentary elections are at last on track. All that
remains is for President Boris Yeltsin to sign the
legislation. The fact that the veto of the Federation
Council was overridden so handily (350 votes when 300
were needed) in a special session of the Duma where
most deputies had to come back from vacation signifies
two important points. First, the deputies of the Duma
are leaving nothing to chance in the preparation for
elections. Recent events in Kazakhstan, where the
Kazakh President threw out election results because of
a misstep in the election law process, invoked fear
that the same might happen in Russia if the new
boundary law were not officially approved by the late
August deadline. Second, the size of the vote confirms
that almost all parties, regardless of political
orientation, seek elections this December.
ON OUR HOME IS RUSSIA AND CAMPAIGN THEMES: In an
effort to make crime and corruption prevention an issue
is his bloc''s campaign, Prime Minister VIKTOR
CHERNOMYRDIN has called for a full investigation into
the recent murders of prominent Moscow businessmen.
Along with the falling standard of living, preventing
crime and corruption is the major concern of the
Russian people in the upcoming election. However,
crimes against bankers are not important election
issues to the everyday man. If Chernomyrdin hopes to
make a stand against crime and corruption to win votes,
he must start with executive branch corruption. A few
highly publicized arrests of corrupt officials would do
much to show that his bloc is serious on the issue. As
for the falling standard of living, Mr. Chernomyrdin
should listen to the common man, as Boris Yeltsin used
to do. Perhaps a trip to a nursing home, without his
entire entourage, where he is shown listening to
pensioners'' woes and even getting lectured by them,
would give the prime minister more of a "man of the
people" image.
ON THE RYBKIN BLOC: Speaker IVAN RYBKIN''S bloc is
still in disarray, while Our Home Is Russia is
proceeding onward. The groups''s problem is that there
are few real distinctions between the two blocs, and
most politicians do not want to join an opposition bloc
where they see fewer spoils of office coming their way.
The Agrarian Party is the key for the Rybkin Bloc.
Originally, the agrarians were seen as anchoring the
center-left bloc, but when the Agrarian Party''s leader,
MIKHAIL LAPSHIN, opted to campaign independently in
coordination with the Communists, the Rybkin bloc lost
its grounding. Rumors persist that the Agrarian Party
might split. This seems the only way that the Rybkin
Bloc might ever materialize to be a serious contender
in the December elections.