Was NATO Enlargement a Mistake?

Francis J. Gavin

DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8

Giovanni Agnelli Distinguished Professor and Director of the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University

When assessing a policy, it is important to evaluate plausible counterfactuals. Without NATO expansion, a dangerous power vacuum could have emerged in central Europe, a condition that had been dangerous in the past. Absent membership in NATO, Poland and others might have sought their own nuclear weapons. How might a newly reunified Germany—the focus of concern in the early 1990s—have developed in such circumstances? Critics forget that NATO transformed its mission and structure after 1990 and facilitated considerable reductions in military forces. There is no guarantee that Russia would have been happy with other European security arrangements short of a return of its former empire and spheres of influence. And contrary to predictions, the renewed Russian threat has highlighted NATO's unity and the attractiveness of its collective security capabilities.

Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7

Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus and former Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government

Stephen Walt

STRONGLY AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9

Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University