Research

"All of which reminds us that we must be — yes, my favorite word — realistic about the ability of complex societies to change their spots overnight. That fact can be reassuring in some circumstances, insofar as it helps insulate successful policies from opponents who mistakenly want to overturn them. But it also means that policies that have simply outlived their usefulness can be as hard to eradicate as kudzu. The next time you find yourself thinking some charismatic new leader is going to sweep into office and fix everything: think again."

"...India has a window of opportunity for significant change. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has prioritized job creation and economic growth without the baggage of welfare promises typically offered up in Indian politics. During his first 18 months in office, he has sought to revitalize Indian foreign policy, and signaled a desire for a stronger relationship with the United States."

"Although this phased-approach to sanctions relief under the JCPOA ensures that Iran does not receive benefits without first implementing its nuclear commitments, uncertainties remain. The agreement does not affect U.S. and EU non-nuclear sanctions, such as those that target human rights abuses, support for terrorism, and money laundering. One question is whether or not relief from nuclear-related sanctions will affect the usefulness of non-nuclear sanctions."

In this op-ed for Iran Matters, Aaron Arnold provides a crucial update on the status of the economic sanctions placed on Iran. He argues that in the short term, a lack of sanctions relief will continue to damage the Iranian economy and undercut efforts by the Rouhani Administration to revitalize growth. However, he points out that new developments in the global economy, such as the creation of an alternative to the SWIFT financial messaging system pushed by Russia and China, will possibly degrade the effectiveness of sanctions in the long run.

"...[A] range of countries, including the U.S. and Israel, has every interest in preventing a disorderly devaluation and financial crisis in a country of 80 million people on Israel's very doorstep. The $10 billion to $12 billion the IMF estimates Egypt needs would seem a paltry price to pay for regional stability."

"...[T]he biggest challenge the United States faces today is not a looming great-power rival; it is the triple whammy of accumulated debt, eroding infrastructure and a sluggish economy. The only way to have the world's most capable military forces both now and into the future is to have the world's most advanced economy, and that means having better schools, the best universities, a scientific establishment that is second to none, and a national infrastructure that enhances productivity and dazzles those who visit from abroad. These things all cost money, of course, but they would do far more to safeguard our long-term security than spending a lot of blood and treasure determining who should run Afghanistan, Kosovo, South Sudan, Libya, Yemen or any number of other strategic backwaters."

"At the height of the cold war, President Dwight D. Eisenhower decided against direct military intervention on the side of the French in Vietnam in 1954 because he was convinced that it was more important to preserve the strength of the American economy. Today, such a strategy would avoid involvement of ground forces in major wars in Asia or in other poor countries."

"In political terms, China, India and Russia are competitors for power in Asia. Russia worries about China's proximity and influence in Siberia, and India is worried about Chinese encroachment into the Indian Ocean as well as their Himalayan border disputes. As a challenge to the United States, BRICS is unlikely to become a serious alliance or even a political organization of like-minded states."

"...[F]ast-growing Turkey has become Syria's biggest trading partner and Damascus' long-term lifeline, both economically and geopolitically. The countries' ties have resulted in the establishment of a High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, a free-trade zone, a visa-free travel regime and several mediation efforts over the past two years. In many ways, Syria has benefited more from its partnership with Turkey than it has from its two-decades-long alliance with Iran."

India is thus unlikely to develop the power resources to become an equal to China in the next decade or two. And, while the two countries signed agreements in 1993 and 1996 that promised a peaceful settlement of the border dispute that led them to war in l962, it is worth noting that, just prior to India's nuclear tests in March l998, India's defense minister described China as India's "potential enemy number one." More recently, in 2009, the border issue flared again....Rather than becoming an ally, India is more likely to become one of the Asian countries that will tend to balance China's strategic rise.