Analysis & Opinions

694 Items

(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Analysis & Opinions - Agence Global

Can we respond to the Bahrain workshop idea with a ‘yes and no’?

| May 21, 2019

BEIRUT — Washington’s formal announcement of its plan to hold an economic workshop in Bahrain in June to kick-start a promised Palestinian-Israeli peace process — “the deal of the century” — brings us all face-to-face with a momentous decision. Do we dance or stay home?

A traditional Iranian bazaar in the city of Kashan

Wikicommons

Analysis & Opinions - The Hill

Can Iran Weather the Trump Storm?

| May 03, 2019

In the past 10 years, oil exports have averaged about $67 billion in Iran. Last year, they dropped by two-thirds, and they are expected to drop below $30 billion this year.  There are reasons to believe that, with appropriate policies, the country can live with this level of oil exports, albeit at a reduced standard of living, and even do itself some good in the long run by reducing its dependence on oil.

Iran has been there before. In 2012, when President Obama ratcheted up U.S. sanctions against Iran, oil exports dropped by 27.5 percent, and GDP fell by 6.2 percent. In 2015, sanctions and the collapse of oil prices further reduced oil exports to $32 billion, a decade-long low, and GDP declined by 1.6 percent. If Iran’s leadership is to successfully resist U.S. demands, it must do more than find ways to evade sanctions. A lot depends on its ability to adopt a plan that reduces the economy’s dependence on oil, while distributing the burden of restructuring equitably across social groups.

(AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)

(AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)

Analysis & Opinions - Aljazeera

الانتخابات الإسرائيلية 2019: التفاعلات الداخلية والانعكاسات الخارجية

| Apr. 25, 2019

شكَّلت الانتخابات الإسرائيلية التي أُجريت في 9 أبريل/نيسان 2019، إلى حد ما، استفتاء على حكم نتنياهو كرئيس للوزراء والمستمر منذ العام 2009، حيث لم يضع أي من المرشحين الرئيسيين التسوية مع الفلسطينيين عنصرًا أساسيًّا في حملته الانتخابية. أظهرت نتائج الانتخابات فوزًا واضحًا لقوى اليمين واليمين المتطرف وهو ما سوف يرسخ هيمنتها على المشهد السياسي الإسرائيلي خلال السنوات القادمة. تعالج هذه الورقة تطبيقات نتائج الانتخابات المختلفة على الوضع الإسرائيلي الداخلي، وفرص التسوية السلمية مع الفلسطينيين، والعلاقات العربية-الإسرائيلية في ضوء التنازع الإقليمي مع إيران وحلفائها في المنطقة. تجادل الورقة بأن المجتمع الإسرائيلي يتجه أكثر من أي وقت مضى منذ توقيع اتفاق أوسلو، عام 1993، نحو اليمين وهو ما سيعمل على إذابة فرص إقامة دولة فلسطينية مستقلة مع تجاهل الدول العربية الفاعلة لذلك.

Iranian president Hassan Rouhani

Wikicommons

Analysis & Opinions

The Unimportance Of New Oil Sanctions

| Apr. 25, 2019

For the Islamic Republic, resistance to Washington has become a cultural norm, and it considers independence (esteghlal) as the main achievement of the 1979 revolution.  According to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Iran would have to meet 12 conditions before the United States will renegotiate the nuclear deal and consider removing its sanctions. These conditions, which are nothing short of surrender on Iran’s part, are either set to force Iran out of the nuclear deal and therefore trigger the return of UN sanctions, or they are a thinly veiled call for regime change.

Saudi Arabia Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping

AP Photo/Rolex Dela Pena

Analysis & Opinions - The Hill

In the Gulf, China Plays to Win but US has Upper Hand

| Mar. 12, 2019

A surge of U.S. oil production has reduced Washington’s need for imports, leaving China as the world’s largest purchaser of crude in global markets. Meanwhile, Beijing has become the largest trading partner of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman, as well as Iraq, Iran, Egypt and Lebanon. Now, with synergy between Xi Jinping’s One Belt, One Road and Vision 2030, the stars seem aligned for a Saudi-Sino alliance to displace American influence in the Gulf.

A special police officer watches over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's speech before a crowd of rally-goers, March 5, 2019.

Lefteris Pitarakis (AP)

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Erdogan Sabotages Turkey's Progress by Turning Away From the West

| Mar. 07, 2019

The rupture between Turkey and the rest of the West is most clearly visible in its deteriorating relationship with the United States, David Ignatius argues. But Turkey's president is leading his country into harm's way, not away from it—an omen, perhaps, of what a post-American world order might look like.

U.S. President Donald Trump Speaks During a Press Conference in Hanoi, Vietnam, on February 28, 2019.

Associated Press

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Trump’s Comments on Otto Warmbier are a Reminder He Doesn’t Prioritize Human Rights

| Feb. 28, 2019

The Trump administration has never shown much interest in human rights. Last year, it pulled the United States out of the U.N. Human Rights Council. In 2017, within months of President Trump’s inauguration, then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said diplomats should not let human rights values become “obstacles” to achieving national goals. Trump has spoken favorably about some of the world’s most vicious dictators.

Iran demonstrations 22 Bahman Iranian Revolution

Tasnim

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

The Islamic Revolution at 40

| Feb. 12, 2019

US President Donald Trump’s administration seems to hope that, with a nudge from sanctions, ordinary Iranians will rise up and overthrow the Islamic Republic. But the economic data do not support the view that the Iranian public has been driven into abject poverty since 1979, let alone that it is on the brink of revolting.