Articles

China’s attempts to protect its access to energy supplies, particularly oil, are a rational strategy to shield itself from energy disruptions, particularly U.S. attempts to coerce China by constricting its oil supply.

The widespread concern that Iran would retaliate for an attack on its nuclear program by launching missiles at oil installations in the Persian Gulf may be largely unfounded.  Although such an attack would lead to a temporary spike in oil prices because of perceived oil shortages, Iran almost certainly does not have the missile capability to make a significant impact given the redundancies in Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure.  The threat would become serious only if Iran greatly increased the range and accuracy of its missiles, in which event the states around the Persian Gulf would be wise to increase their defenses.  In addition to demonstrating that oil is not a particularly vulnerable target, this research also suggests that, although there may be other reasons for not attacking Iran’s nuclear program, concerns about oil shortage should not be one of them.

This article was prepared for a Council on Foreign Relations/International Institute for Strategic Studies Symposium on Iraq's Impact on the Future of US Foreign and Defence Policy, with generous support from Rita E. Hauser.

"Why has the United States adopted policies that jeopardized its

own security in order to advance the interests of another state?"

Despite this extensive activity in the energy sphere, it seems, however, that Ankara's energy policy has been undertaken without a strategic plan and with little integration of energy issues into Turkey's overall foreign and security policies.

"The combination of unwavering support for Israel and the related effort to spread ‘democracy’ throughout the region has inflamed Arab and Islamic opinion and jeopardised not only US security but that of much of the rest of the world."

“The goal of winning the pipeline battle was less to gain the moderate volumes of oil and gas in the Caspian than to maintain (in the case of Russia) or attain (in the case of the United States and Iran) significant presence in the region.”

"The terrorist attacks that destroyed the World Trade Center and damaged the Pentagon triggered the most rapid and dramatic change in the history of U.S. foreign policy."