Articles

Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology outcomes. However, their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and overconfidence is a persistent problem. The authors provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts' estimates.

In order to make R&D funding decisions to meet particular goals, such as mitigating climate change or improving energy security, or to estimate the social returns to R&D, policy makers need to combine the information provided in this study on cost reduction potentials with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of these technological changes. The authors conclude with recommendations for future directions on energy expert elicitations.

This article shows that it is possible to unify several realistic features of the deployment and development problem for the electricity sector to meet sustainability goals into one framework.

Understanding the long-term patterns of innovation in energy technologies is crucial for technology forecasting and public policy planning in the context of climate change. This paper analyzes which of two common models of innovation over the technology life-cycle — the product-process innovation shift observed for mass-produced goods or the system-component shift observed for complex products and systems — best describes the pattern of innovation in energy technologies.

Energy technology innovation is the key to driving the technological changes that are necessary to meet the challenge of mitigating energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to avoid 'dangerous climate change.' Success in innovation requires the enhancement of public investment in the innovation process, the creation of markets for low-carbon technologies through stronger climate policies, and a continued focus on energy access and equity.

Existing strategies for residential energy savings through physical renovation or motivating occupant energy conservation behavior can be costly and/or have transitory effects. Focusing on multi-family dwellings, an important subset of the urban residential sector, the authors propose an Energy Saving Alignment Strategy (ESAS) that has advantageous cost-effectiveness and a long-lasting influence. By aligning the distribution of residents' thermostat preferences with the indoor temperature, ESAS aims to maximize thermal comfort and, accordingly, energy savings in multi-family buildings where indoor temperatures vary between apartments as a function of apartment orientation and floor level.

This article shows how complex interdependencies and the uncertain nature of technological change shape the process of targeted policy interventions in socio-technical systems. Toward this end, the authors analyzed the evolution of the German feed-in tariff (FIT) system for solar photovoltaic power, a highly effective and widely copied policy instrument targeted at fostering the diffusion and development of renewable energy technologies.

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is among the cornerstone policies created to increase U.S. energy independence by using biofuels. Although greenhouse gas emissions have played a role in shaping the RFS, water implications are less understood. We demonstrate a spatial, life cycle approach to estimate water consumption of transportation fuel scenarios, including a comparison to current water withdrawals and drought incidence by state. The water consumption and land footprint of six scenarios are compared to the RFS, including shale oil, coal-to-liquids, shale gas-to-liquids, corn ethanol, and cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass.

Understanding the role of government policies in promoting the introduction of renewable technologies can help to catalyze the transition toward a more sustainable energy system. The literature on technological transitions using a multi-level perspective suggests that the co-evolution of the niche market (the new technology) and the complementary regime may have an important role to play in shaping this transition. This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the interactions between different types of solar photovoltaic (PV) networks at the niche level, the complementary semiconductor sector at the complementary regime level, and the solar PV policies in 14 different countries.

Since 1978, when China launched its "opening up" reform, a range of large-scale national science and technology programs have been implemented to spur economic development. Energy has received significant attention and has become a growing priority in the past years. This article analyzes the goals, management, and impact over time of China's three largest national programs: Gong Guan, 863, and 973 Programs. Using quantitative metrics to describe the input and output, by conducting semi-structured interviews with officials, scientists, and other decision makers, and by reviewing available documents as well as a case study on the coal sector, the authors examined the changes in the decision making process, particularly in regard to the role of scientists.