Articles

408 Items

Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with the State Council Presidium

Ramil Sitdikov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Journal Article - Washington Quarterly

Lessons in Sanctions-Proofing from Russia

| 2023

Overall, "sanctions-proofing" activities by governments do not offer an impermeable shield against financial sanctions due to the strength of the US dollar, the reach of multilateral sanctions, and the speed with which coordinated sanctions can be imposed. However, some sanctions-proofing strategies enable governments to continue pursuing their goals despite sanctions pressure. Analysis of Russia's adaptations to the sanctions should temper expectations of sanctions' ability to alter wartime behavior. The threat of sanctions did not deter war and the initial imposition of sanctions did not coerce a change in the decision to wage war.

 President of Russia Vladimir Putin at the CSTO Collective Security Council meeting (via videoconference), September 13, 2022.

Wikimedia Commons/Kremlin.ru

Journal Article - International Security

The Belligerent Bear: Russia, Status Orders, and War

    Author:
  • Pål Røren
| Spring 2023

Do states gain social status by fighting wars? It depends on the type of status order interpreting their belligerence. Russia gained status as a great power within U.S. public discourse after its 2014 annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine. But its belligerence decreased its status within the G-8 and had little effect on its status in the UN Security Council.

An old man walks past a gutted car in downtown Kabul, Thursday, June 25, 1992.

AP Photo/B.K. Bangash

Journal Article - International Security

Dealers and Brokers in Civil Wars: Why States Delegate Rebel Support to Conduit Countries

    Authors:
  • Niklas Karlén
  • Vladimir Rauta
| Spring 2023

State support to non-state armed groups outside a state’s own territory is commonly seen as a direct relationship between a state sponsor and a rebel group. But powerful states can use a third state—a dealer or broker—as a conduit for military and other support. States that fail to identify an alignment of interests with these intermediary dealers and brokers face strategic failure.

People watch a TV news program showing the tweet of U.S. President Donald Trump while reporting North Korea's nuclear issue

AP/Ahn Young-joon

Journal Article - Security Studies

Madman or Mad Genius? The International Benefits and Domestic Costs of the Madman Strategy

| 2023

According to the "Madman Theory" outlined by Daniel Ellsberg and Thomas C. Schelling, and embraced by Presidents Richard Nixon and Donald Trump, being perceived as mad can help make seemingly incredible threats—such as starting a nuclear war—more credible. However, recent research has largely concluded that the Madman Theory does not work. 

People watch a TV showing a file image of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shown during a news program

AP/Ahn Young-joon

Journal Article - Ethics & International Affairs

Nuclear Ethics Revisited

| Spring 2023

Scott Sagan asked Joseph S. Nye to revisit Nuclear Ethics, a book he published in 1986, in light of current developments in world affairs. In doing so, he found that much had changed but the basic usability paradox of nuclear deterrence remains the same. 

Students at left watch as student activists take positions in the Cathedral of Learning

AP/Keith Srakocic

Journal Article - Environmental Politics

Fossil Fuel Divestment and Public Climate Change Policy Preferences: An Experimental Test in Three Countries

| 2023

Divestment is a prominent strategy championed by activists to induce positive social change. For example, the current fossil fuel divestment movement includes over 1,500 institutions that control $40 trillion in assets. A primary pathway through which divestment is theorized to be effective is by influencing public beliefs and policy preferences, thus pressuring policymakers to take action. However, prior research only tests this argument via qualitative case studies. The authors assess the impact of exposure to information about fossil fuel divestment on public opinion through the use of national survey experiments in three major greenhouse gas emitters: the U.S., India, and South Africa.

Illustration of Imperial Russian Army light cavalry, early 19th century.

Wikimedia Commons

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Push and Pull on the Periphery: Inadvertent Expansion in World Politics

| Winter 2022/23

Great powers may expand their state or empire by choice, or by accident. Nearly 25 percent of important historical instances of great power expansion have been initiated by actors on the periphery without authorization from the center. Leaders at the center are often constrained from withdrawing from new territory, unless they foresee high costs from staying.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan talks to members of the media

Presidential Press Service via AP, Pool

Journal Article - Contemporary Security Policy

Coercive Disclosure: The Weaponization of Public Intelligence Revelation in International Relations

| 2023

Can intelligence serve as a coercive instrument in international relations? While coercion literature mostly addresses military and economic means, this article argues that coercion can also include the deliberate public disclosure of intelligence. Intelligence can be employed to threaten adversaries, reduce their latitude, and force them to adjust their plans and operations