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A soldier stands guard as Jerry Rawlings, AU envoy to Somalia, unseen, speaks to displaced people. The Horn of Africa is suffering a devastating drought compounded by war, neglect, and spiraling prices.

AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Climate Wars? Assessing the Claim That Drought Breeds Conflict

    Authors:
  • Ole Magnus Theisen
  • Helge Holtermann
  • Halvard Buhaug
| Winter 2011/12

Climate change will most likely impose great hardships on Africa’s agrarian societies in the coming years, but new research suggests that, despite current thought, it will not increase the likelihood of civil war. The concern that scarcity will breed conflict is understandable, but the data show that civil war is more highly correlated with other factors, such as high infant mortality, proximity to international borders, and high local population density. Climate shocks are certain to increase the suffering of marginalized societies in other ways, which makes it all the more important that we do not militarize the issue lest fear limit immigration and relief efforts.