Articles

11 Items

Journal Article - International Security

Reining in Rebellion: The Decline of Political Violence in South America, 1830–1929

    Authors:
  • Raúl L. Madrid
  • Luis L. Schenoni
| Winter 2023/24

After a century of rebellion, South America experienced a rapid decline in revolts in the early 1900s. Historical narratives and an analysis of a comprehensive new dataset show that the decrease stemmed in large part from the expansion and professionalization of the region’s militaries, which were driven by an export boom and the threat of interstate conflict. 

In this March 11, 2009 file photo, a group of rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia attend a ceremony where they graduated as "peacemakers" after they renounced the rebel group and the armed struggle, at La Picota prison in southern Bogota, Colombia.

AP Photo/William Fernando Martinez, File

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Why Rebels Stop Fighting: Organizational Decline and Desertion in Colombia's Insurgency

    Authors:
  • Enzo Nussio
  • Juan E. Ugarriza
| Spring 2021

Analysis of unique data on more than 19,000 reported deserters of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) reveals that organizational decline undermines a group’s instruments to promote collective action—including selective incentives, ideological appeal, and coercion—and leads to desertion.

Bosnia President Alija Izetbegovic, left, shakes hands with Croatia President Franjo Tudjman in Dayton, Ohio, Wednesday, Nov. 1, 1995.

AP Photo/Joe Marquette

Journal Article - International Security

How Civil Wars End: The International System, Norms, and the Role of External Actors

| Winter 2017/18

Historically, most civil wars have ended with the military defeat of the losing side. In the 1990s, by contrast, civil wars usually ended with a negotiated settlement. What accounts for this anomaly?

Bullets for Ballots: Electoral Participation Provisions and Enduring Peace after Civil Conflict

AP/Luis Romero

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Bullets for Ballots: Electoral Participation Provisions and Enduring Peace after Civil Conflict

    Author:
  • Aila M. Matanock
| Spring 2017

What kinds of peace agreements are most likely to prevent civil conflicts from recurring? Does holding elections after a civil war make enduring peace more likely? Agreements mandating that rebels be allowed to participate in post-conflict elections alongside the government are more likely to succeed, because such elections attract the engagement of international organizations that can reward compliance with the agreement and punish noncompliance.

Pres. Jose Napoleon Duarte, of El Salvador, left, smiles while talking with Pres. Ronald Reagan at the White House, Monday, July 23, 1984, Washington, D.C.

AP

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Influencing Clients in Counterinsurgency: U.S. Involvement in El Salvador’s Civil War, 1979–92

    Author:
  • Walter C. Ladwig III
| Summer 2016

In foreign counterinsurgency campaigns from Vietnam to Afghanistan, the United States has often found local elites to be more hindrance than help. Client governments resist U.S.-prescribed reforms crucial to counterinsurgency success because such reforms would undermine their power. The history of the United States’ involvement in El Salvador’s civil war shows that placing strict conditions on military and economic aid is crucial to gaining client governments’ compliance.

Ugandan soldiers march in the northern Pader district. The troops were deployed for operations against rebels who mutilate civilians and abduct children in the course of Africa's longest-running civil war.

AP Photo

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Ending Civil Wars: A Case for Rebel Victory?

Spring 2010

Since 1990, negotiated settlements have been the preferred method for ending civil wars. A new analysis of all civil war endings since 1940, however, shows that military victory can be more effective than negotiated settlements in establishing lasting peace. The case of Uganda illustrates how peace eludes negotiated settlements and how rebels might be more likely to allow democratization. If stability, democracy, and development are valued objectives, then policymakers should examine victories as well as negotiated settlements to understand the conditions most likely to achieve durable outcomes.

 

Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict

AP Photo

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict

| Summer 2008

The historical record indicates that nonviolent campaigns have been more successful than armed campaigns in achieving ultimate goals in political struggles, even when used against similar opponents and in the face of repression. Nonviolent campaigns are more likely to win legitimacy, attract widespread domestic and international support, neutralize the opponent's security forces, and compel loyalty shifts among erstwhile opponent supporters than are armed campaigns, which enjoin the active support of a relatively small number of people, offer the opponent a justification for violent counterattacks, and are less likely to prompt loyalty shifts and defections. An original, aggregate data set of all known major nonviolent and violent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006 is used to test these claims. These dynamics are further explored in case studies of resistance campaigns in Southeast Asia that have featured periods of both violent and nonviolent resistance.

Sri Lankans look at artillery pieces captured from Tamil Tigers by the security forces at an exhibition in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Monday, Feb. 9, 2009.

AP Photo

Magazine Article - Prospect

Nasty, Brutish and Long

April 2009

It’s a busy time for civil wars. The Sri Lankan army has pushed far into Tamil territory, seeking a decisive victory. The killings in Northern Ireland show how spoilers try to gain advantage over rivals in any political process. Then there is the threat that recently pacified civil wars, such as those in Iraq and Sudan, will come back, while the global recession may push new ones forward.

Imam Zaid Shakir leads a congregational prayer in Union Square, San Francisco in 2005.

yaznotjaz

Magazine Article - Foreign Policy

Why God is Winning

    Author:
  • Timothy Samuel Shah
| July / August 2006

"Religion was supposed to fade away as globalization and freedom spread. Instead, it's booming around the world, often deciding who gets elected. And the divine intervention is just beginning. Democracy is giving people a voice, and more and more, they want to talk about God."