Articles

19 Items

Journal Article - International Security

Reining in Rebellion: The Decline of Political Violence in South America, 1830–1929

    Authors:
  • Raúl L. Madrid
  • Luis L. Schenoni
| Winter 2023/24

After a century of rebellion, South America experienced a rapid decline in revolts in the early 1900s. Historical narratives and an analysis of a comprehensive new dataset show that the decrease stemmed in large part from the expansion and professionalization of the region’s militaries, which were driven by an export boom and the threat of interstate conflict. 

In this March 11, 2009 file photo, a group of rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia attend a ceremony where they graduated as "peacemakers" after they renounced the rebel group and the armed struggle, at La Picota prison in southern Bogota, Colombia.

AP Photo/William Fernando Martinez, File

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Why Rebels Stop Fighting: Organizational Decline and Desertion in Colombia's Insurgency

    Authors:
  • Enzo Nussio
  • Juan E. Ugarriza
| Spring 2021

Analysis of unique data on more than 19,000 reported deserters of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) reveals that organizational decline undermines a group’s instruments to promote collective action—including selective incentives, ideological appeal, and coercion—and leads to desertion.

Great Decisions Cover

Foreign Policy Association

Journal Article - Foreign Policy Association

The State of the State Department and American Diplomacy

| Jan. 03, 2019

During the Trump administration, the usual ways of conducting diplomacy have been upended. Many positions in the State Department have never been filled, and meetings with foreign leaders such as Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin have been undertaken with little advance planning. What effect are these changes having now, and how will they affect ongoing relationships between the United States and its allies and adversaries?

Bosnia President Alija Izetbegovic, left, shakes hands with Croatia President Franjo Tudjman in Dayton, Ohio, Wednesday, Nov. 1, 1995.

AP Photo/Joe Marquette

Journal Article - International Security

How Civil Wars End: The International System, Norms, and the Role of External Actors

| Winter 2017/18

Historically, most civil wars have ended with the military defeat of the losing side. In the 1990s, by contrast, civil wars usually ended with a negotiated settlement. What accounts for this anomaly?

Bullets for Ballots: Electoral Participation Provisions and Enduring Peace after Civil Conflict

AP/Luis Romero

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Bullets for Ballots: Electoral Participation Provisions and Enduring Peace after Civil Conflict

    Author:
  • Aila M. Matanock
| Spring 2017

What kinds of peace agreements are most likely to prevent civil conflicts from recurring? Does holding elections after a civil war make enduring peace more likely? Agreements mandating that rebels be allowed to participate in post-conflict elections alongside the government are more likely to succeed, because such elections attract the engagement of international organizations that can reward compliance with the agreement and punish noncompliance.

Pres. Jose Napoleon Duarte, of El Salvador, left, smiles while talking with Pres. Ronald Reagan at the White House, Monday, July 23, 1984, Washington, D.C.

AP

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Influencing Clients in Counterinsurgency: U.S. Involvement in El Salvador’s Civil War, 1979–92

    Author:
  • Walter C. Ladwig III
| Summer 2016

In foreign counterinsurgency campaigns from Vietnam to Afghanistan, the United States has often found local elites to be more hindrance than help. Client governments resist U.S.-prescribed reforms crucial to counterinsurgency success because such reforms would undermine their power. The history of the United States’ involvement in El Salvador’s civil war shows that placing strict conditions on military and economic aid is crucial to gaining client governments’ compliance.

Pan-American Conference in Rio de Janeiro, 1906.

Revista de História da Biblioteca Nacional, Rio de Janeiro.

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Soft Balancing in the Americas: Latin American Opposition to U.S. Intervention, 1898–1936

    Authors:
  • Max Paul Friedman
  • Tom Long
| Summer 2015

The concept of soft balancing first emerged in analyses of other countries’ attempts to counter U.S. primacy through nonmilitary means after the end of the Cold War. Soft balancing is not a new phenomenon, however. In the early twentieth century, Latin American states sought to end the United States’ frequent interventions in the region by creating international norms against military intervention.