Articles

752 Items

Dr. Cheddi Jagan, right, celebrates with his U.S. born wife, Janet, left

AP

Journal Article - Passport: The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations Review

Intelligence, U.S. Foreign Relations, and Historical Amnesia

| April 2019

Calder Walton writes that the use and abuse of intelligence is one of the most contested and scrutinized subjects in contemporary news and current affairs. By contrast, for a student of history who is eager to understand the similarities and differences between clandestine operations today and those in the past, there are yawning gaps in the literature and the classroom when it comes to intelligence, U.S. foreign relations, and international relations. These gaps exist even in some of the latest and most authoritative publications, as well as the history classes of major U.S. universities.

Iran Syria missiles

Associated Press

Journal Article - International Affairs

Iran's Syria Strategy: The Evolution of Deterrence

| Feb. 04, 2019

Iran has been a critical player in the Syrian war since 2011, crafting a complex foreign policy and military strategy to preserve its Syrian ally. What have been the drivers of Iranian decision-making in this conflict? And how has Iranian strategy evolved over the course of the war? This article argues that the logic of deterrence has been fundamental not just for shaping the contours of Iran–Syria relations since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, but also for determining the overall trajectory of Iranian strategy in the Syrian war. The authors outline Iran's decision-making calculus and divide the country's strategy on Syria after the Arab Spring into four primary phases: 1) a ‘Basij’ strategy to establish local militias in Syria; 2) a regionalization strategy to incorporate transnational fighters and militias in the war effort; 3) an internationalization strategy to incorporate Russia and balance the United States; and 4) a post-ISIS deterrence strategy to balance against the United States, Turkey and Israel. Iran's Syria strategy progressively escalated in response to the possible defeat of its ally and the deterioration of its forward deterrence capacities against the United States and Israel. Today, the potential for direct inter-state conflict is rising as proxy warfare declines and Iran attempts to maintain the credibility of its forward deterrence.

Demonstration in Egypt

(AP Photo/Mostafa Darwish)

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful

| Winter 2018/19

Many states with young populations are growing old fast. If states with older populations engage in violent conflict less frequently than states with large numbers of young people, the implications for the international order could be significant. 

A volunteer in a contemporary reconstruction of the WWI battle of Verdun.

(AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias)

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Bad World: The Negativity Bias in International Politics

| Winter 2018/19

Negative phenomena more strongly influence leaders’ judgments and decisionmaking
than do positive phenomena. This so-called negativity bias helps explain state behavior that contributes to the security dilemma, threat inflation, and the persistence of war.

Donald Trump throws a hat into the audience

AP/Andrew Harnik, File

Magazine Article - China.org.cn

China, US Not in 'Cold War', but Cooperative Rivalry

    Authors:
  • Li Huiru
  • Li Xiaohua
| Jan. 11, 2019

Despite the opposition that appears now in China-U.S. relations, cooperation is far more important, underscored prominent U.S. political scientist Dr. Joseph S. Nye during an exclusive interview with Wang Xiaohui, editor-in-chief of China.org.cn, on Jan. 10, 2019.