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Heather Williams, a nuclear expert at King’s College London and visiting fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, said it was “totally ambiguous” but in keeping with a leader who has a history of being a “nuclear bully”. “It is classic Putin, creating ambiguity and uncertainty,” Williams said. “Putin is so good at that because he knows that it keeps people on edge.”

Noi che siamo spettatori dell’abisso, come dice Ian McEwan, a cosa dobbiamo ancora assistere? Alla conquista da parte di Vladimir Putin, per via della sua enorme supremazia, di tutte le centrali nucleari. Riuscirà anche a disarticolare i presidi logistici della difesa di Kiev.

NPR's Leila Fadel talks Mariana Budjeryn, a Ukrainian and a nuclear expert at Harvard's Belfer Center, about the dangers of Russia seizing control of Ukraine's nuclear power plants.

Mariana Budjeryn, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom, discusses the risks of Russian attacks near nuclear facilities in Ukraine on CNN Newsroom Live, March 6, 2022.

Mariana Budjeryn, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom, shares details of Russia's shelling of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine on CNN Newsroom.

Mariana Budjeryn, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom, shares details of Russia's shelling of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine on CNN International's Connect the World with Becky Anderson.

Russian forces have seized the largest nuclear plant in Europe, Ukrainian authorities say. It comes hours after a fire broke out at the Zaporizhzhia plant following a Russian attack. The fire has since been extinguished, and officials say the site is safe but Western powers have condemned Russia for what they called a "horrific" and "reckless" act, and Ukrainian President Zelensky says the attack could have caused "six Chernobyls". Mariana Budjeryn is a Research Associate with the Project on Managing the Atom  at the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center. She says that as far as we know, the shelling hit a number of facilities but that the flow of electricity must be kept constant to allow the fuel to keep cooling. She goes on to say that reactors are protected to withstand a certain level of impact, but none have been designed to withstand sustained artillery fire. She says there is concern that at this level of hostilities, there is a risk of a serious nuclear accident, or one that is planned to stop the war quickly and on Russia conditions. "You can't just hit a switch on a nuclear reactor - there are still a number of procedures that have to be followed quite closely to keep that reactor safe."

Francesca Giovannini, the executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science, believes that the nuclear option, while improbable, should not be completely ruled out. “The circumstances are very complex,” she argues. “And he [Putin] is under a huge amount of pressure.”

And then there are the extreme circumstances of the moment. “I think that he is under huge internal pressure,” says Giovannini. “He’s not crazy. I don’t think that he would launch a strategic bomb. But it worries me that he could consider the option of a tactical one. To send a message that he is prepared to do anything to defend Russian interests. Thinking that perhaps an attack with a tactical warhead in Ukraine would not trigger a military reaction from NATO against Russia.”

The initial stage of the war in Ukraine has confounded expectations. Russia’s military invasion failed in key objectives, upending predictions of a rout of Ukraine. Then, after years of avoiding direct confrontations with Moscow, Western nations are now directly punishing Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies with truly devastating economic sanctions while openly supplying arms to Ukraine.

Though there were peace talks for the first time on Monday, there are no signs that the cycle of escalation will go down. Amid unprecedented global pressure, Putin is doubling down on a defensive posture that pits Russia against almost everyone else in the world. He has ratcheted up the levels of violence in eastern Ukraine, bombarding the city of Kharkiv with suspected cluster munitions, while putting the country’s nuclear arsenal on alert.