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Heather Williams, a nuclear expert at King’s College London and visiting fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, said it was “totally ambiguous” but in keeping with a leader who has a history of being a “nuclear bully”. “It is classic Putin, creating ambiguity and uncertainty,” Williams said. “Putin is so good at that because he knows that it keeps people on edge.”

Noi che siamo spettatori dell’abisso, come dice Ian McEwan, a cosa dobbiamo ancora assistere? Alla conquista da parte di Vladimir Putin, per via della sua enorme supremazia, di tutte le centrali nucleari. Riuscirà anche a disarticolare i presidi logistici della difesa di Kiev.

Francesca Giovannini, the executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science, believes that the nuclear option, while improbable, should not be completely ruled out. “The circumstances are very complex,” she argues. “And he [Putin] is under a huge amount of pressure.”

And then there are the extreme circumstances of the moment. “I think that he is under huge internal pressure,” says Giovannini. “He’s not crazy. I don’t think that he would launch a strategic bomb. But it worries me that he could consider the option of a tactical one. To send a message that he is prepared to do anything to defend Russian interests. Thinking that perhaps an attack with a tactical warhead in Ukraine would not trigger a military reaction from NATO against Russia.”

The initial stage of the war in Ukraine has confounded expectations. Russia’s military invasion failed in key objectives, upending predictions of a rout of Ukraine. Then, after years of avoiding direct confrontations with Moscow, Western nations are now directly punishing Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies with truly devastating economic sanctions while openly supplying arms to Ukraine.

Though there were peace talks for the first time on Monday, there are no signs that the cycle of escalation will go down. Amid unprecedented global pressure, Putin is doubling down on a defensive posture that pits Russia against almost everyone else in the world. He has ratcheted up the levels of violence in eastern Ukraine, bombarding the city of Kharkiv with suspected cluster munitions, while putting the country’s nuclear arsenal on alert.

Arctic Data Stories will give students with non-technical backgrounds the chance to explore geospatial data and policy, guided by experts from the Arctic Initiative, the Woodwell Climate Research Center, and Esri. The workshop covers topics in data visualization, policy, and ArcGIS software and culminates with student presentations on Arctic-specific policy challenges. Sessions will be held on Fridays from 12–2 p.m. from February 11 to March 11, 2022, on Zoom. We will host a final workshop at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Falmouth, MA on March 26 and 27. Participants must commit to attending all sessions when applying. Students wishing to participate should fill out the form HERE.

Arctic residents, students, policymakers, academics, and business leaders convened in Reykjavík, Iceland, for the 2021 Arctic Circle Assembly from Thursday, October 14 to Saturday, October 17. The Arctic Initiative organized two sessions at this year’s Assembly: 1) Arctic Innovation Lab: 10 Ideas for a Better Arctic, and 2) Policy and Action on Plastic in the Arctic: Innovations to Tackle Plastic Pollution with The Wilson Center’s Polar Institute. 

Arctic Data Stories will give students with non-technical backgrounds the chance to explore geospatial data and policy, guided by experts from the Arctic Initiative, the Woodwell Climate Research Center, and Esri. The workshop covers topics in data visualization, policy, and ArcGIS software and culminates with student presentations on Arctic-specific policy challenges. Sessions will be held virtually on Fridays from 12–2 p.m. ET on February 5–26 & March 5, 2021. Participants must commit to attending all sessions when applying.

In October 2019, the Belfer Center's Arctic Initiative and the Wilson Center's Polar Institute co-hosted a workshop on Policy and Action on Plastic in the Arctic Ocean with the Icelandic Chairmanship of the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council asked Magnús Jóhannesson, the Council's designated Special Coordinator on Plastics Pollution and Marine Litter, and Gunn-Britt Retter, Head of Arctic and Environmental Unit at the Saami Council — who both participated in the workshop — to comment on some of the points that the report raises.

How can the public and private sectors finance economic growth in the Arctic that serves the people and ecosystems of the Arctic? How does society ensure that these investments build social-ecological resilience in a region that is transforming before our eyes? Join this five-week study group to explore these questions and learn from Arctic experts and finance professionals about how to finance sustainable development in communities impacted by a changing climate. Led by Arctic Initiative Senior Fellow Joel Clement, an Arctic policy leader and former federal climate-change whistleblower, and Graham Sinclair, a subject matter expert on sustainable investment and an Environmental, Social, and Governance architect with decades of experience working with development financing institutions.

The Study Group will consist of five weekly sessions: Tuesdays from 6pm – 7:30pm, February 4 – March 10, 2020, in Belfer-400 (Land Lecture Hall). For more information or to sign-up, please contact brittany_janis@hks.harvard.edu. Space is limited; please register by February 4.

The International Security Program (ISP) is still accepting applications for 2020–2021.  ISP is a multidisciplinary research group that develops and trains new talent in security studies by hosting pre- and postdoctoral research fellows.