Reports & Papers

46 Items

Hijacked airliner headed toward World Trade Towers on September 11, 2001

REUTERS/Sean Adair

Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Countering Terrorism With "Blue Sky" Thinking

| May 19, 2022

In the past, strategic surprise has often stemmed from a failure of imagination. Most intelligence failures are rooted in a lack of foresight or early warning of impending events. Blue sky thinking seeks to prevent these surprises by devoting more attention not just to known risks and likely scenarios, but also to low probability, high impact events. In an unprecedented step in forging ongoing global collaboration, 129 global experts gathered in Amman, Jordan, in December 2021. The conference was held under the auspices of Jordan’s Aqaba Process and facilitated by representatives from the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center’s Intelligence Project. Attendees included intelligence officers, diplomats, military officers, private sector practitioners, and academics representing 29 countries, 5 continents, and 68 government and private sector organizations. Through presentations and discussion under Chatham House Rules, the conference facilitated an open exchange of ideas on the possible next big threats from terrorism and on strategies for moving forward.

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Report

Nine Lessons for Navigating National Security

| March 25, 2016

Belfer Center Senior Fellow and Center for a New American Security (CNAS) CEO Michèle Flournoy has written a new report examining 70 years of U.S. national security policy and processes and making recommendations for the next President as he or she builds the next national security team. The report, “Nine Lessons for Navigating National Security,” is part of CNAS’ Papers for the Next President series, which explore critical regions and issues the next president will have to address early in his or her tenure.

Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

SUMMARY REPORT: U.S.-China 21

| April 2015

The future relationship between China and the United States is one of the mega-changes and mega-challenges of our age. China’s rise is the geopolitical equivalent of the melting polar ice caps – gradual change on a massive scale that can suddenly lead to dramatic turns of events.

In this Summary Report of a longer forthcoming work, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, a senior fellow at the Belfer Center, asks if this defining trend of the 21st century can be managed peacefully? He argues that it can – if Washington and Beijing commit to placing their relationship on a stable, long-term footing.

Rudd's findings emerge from a major study he led at the Center on the possibilities and impacts of a new strategic relationship between China and the United States.

Report

Challenges to U.S. Global Leadership

In a Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE session titled "Challenges to US Global Leadership," Graham Allison, Nicholas Burns, David Gergen, David Ignatius, and Meghan O’Sullivan discussed challenges as well as opportunities facing the United States. Burns moderated the session.

Challenges include the rise of China and the future of the U.S.-China relationship, the crises taking place around the world, and the reputation of the U.S. worldwide. An unexpected opportunity is the increase in available energy sources in the United States.

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Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Ideal Qualities of a Successful Diplomat

| October 17, 2013

Based on his experience in the Oval Office, the White House Situation Room, the State and Defense Departments and in foreign capitals over four decades, Ambassador Robert Blackwill shares fifteen characteristics that he believes are fundamental for successful diplomats.

Report - Center for Strategic and International Studies

The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia

| August 2012

The following report presents a consensus view of the members of a bipartisan study group on the U.S.-Japan alliance. The report specifically addresses energy, economics and global trade, relations with neighbors, and security-related issues. Within these areas, the study group offers policy recommendations for Japan and the United States, which span near- and long-term time frames. These recommendations are intended to bolster the alliance as a force for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.

Paper

The Need for the Next Special Operations Forces' Mobility Aircraft

| June 2012

The proliferation of threat systems and Anti-Access, Area Denial (A2/AD) strategies make performing special operations forces' (SOF) air mobility missions increasingly complicated and limit the capability to defeat air defenses and penetrate into denied airspace. Combined with an aging inventory, ill suited to evading these threats, Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) and the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) must look to technology to defeat the more modern threat systems and anti-access strategies. The best answer to penetrate future, denied regions is in stealth or low observable (LO) technology.

Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Cyber Power

| May 2010

Power depends upon context, and the rapid growth of cyber space is an important new context in world politics. The low price of entry, anonymity, and asymmetries in vulnerability means that smaller actors have more capacity to exercise hard and soft power in cyberspace than in many more traditional domains of world politics. The largest powers are unlikely to be able to dominate this domain as much as they have others like sea or air. But cyberspace also illustrates the point that diffusion of power does not mean equality of power or the replacement of governments as the most powerful actors in world politics.

Employees of the National Security Agency sit in the Threat Operations Center on Jan. 25, 2006, in Fort Meade, Md. The government issued an alert Nov. 30, 2006 to U.S. stock market and banking Web sites about a possible Internet attack.

AP Photo

Discussion Paper

Strategic Advantage: Why America Should Care About Cybersecurity

| October 2009

The internet is an interconnected series of networks--where it is difficult to determine where private security threats end and public ones begin.  These networks deliver power and water to our households and businesses, enable us to access our bank accounts from almost any city in the world, and transform the way our doctors provide healthcare.  For all of these reasons, we need a safe Internet with a strong network infrastructure.

Central Intelligence Agency Headquarters. Langley, Virginia. January 30, 2004.

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Paper

A Global Crossroads: A World without Borders, or a Star Wars Shield?

| May 19, 2009

A growing number of intractable problems can no longer be solved by the existing institutions, mechanisms and approaches of a bygone age.  It is time to forge a collective security consciousness that will enable us to develop unprecedented ways of working together to solve shared problems.