Reports & Papers

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine illuminated the long profound shadow of nuclear weapons over international security. Russia's nuclear threats have rightfully garnered significant attention because of the unfathomable lethality of nuclear weapons. However, the use of such weapons in Ukraine is only one way—albeit the gravest— that Russia could challenge the global nuclear order. Russia's influence extends deep into the very fabric of this order—a system to which it is inextricably bound by Moscow's position in cornerstone institutions such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). From withdrawing from key treaties to stymieing resolutions critical of misconduct, Moscow has demonstrated its ability to challenge the legitimacy, relevance, and interpretations of numerous standards and principles espoused by the West.

Al-Juaied and Whitmore examine the costs and prospects for direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), and identify types of funding needed for early deployment for DACCS and building momentum for later widespread deployment. The challenges of implementing DACCS at very large scale further emphasize the need for urgent and widespread action to reduce emissions, which should continue to be the main priority for meeting climate goals.

From July 11-12, 2023, NATO leaders gathered in Vilnius, Lithuania for one of the most significant NATO summits in history. This timely brief by Eric Rosenbach, Grace Jones, and Olivia Leiwant serves as a background piece on Ukraine’s history with NATO, potential future pathways for accession, and the operational impact Ukraine’s NATO membership could have on the alliance. 

In this paper, I propose five key science and technology areas for greater US-Australia collaboration that carry significant national security and defence risks for both countries. Rapid progress against these challenges will position us for success and strengthen our resilience against groups that seek to undermine the global rules-based order. 

In late 2017, Mexico made headlines as Italian company Enel bid what was then a world-record low price for renewable energy in the country’s third such energy auction. This development was possible due to the historical and sweeping energy reforms passed with broad support in Mexico in 2013. Then-President Enrique Peña Nieto had succeeded where previous Mexican presidents had failed, reversing decades of resource nationalism and overhauling the energy sector through constitutional reforms that gave the private sector a larger role and advantaged renewable energy in Mexico’s economy. The 2017 auction seemed to indicate Mexico’s bright future not only as a conventional oil producer, but also as a clean energy power.

The world has grown more dangerous but also less open to arms control measures that could limit some of the dangers. What can be done? Steven E. Miller offers a tour de force overview of both dismal and hopeful trends within arms control over the past decades, in this first paper of a new HCSS series on Arms Control.

This paper analyzes clean hydrogen’s potential for driving emissions reductions in the mobility sector, focusing on road transportation, shipping, rail, and aviation. Overall, transportation is the second-largest producer of global CO2 emissions, after electricity and heat generation, and one of the hardest sectors to decarbonize due to its distributed nature and the advantages provided by fossil fuels in terms of high energy densities, ease of transportation and storage. 

In this report, we propose a market reform pathway for Yunnan that is both feasible and applicable to address some of these challenges immediately, while aiming for a standard design based on well-documented international experience. Our proposal includes at its heart a pay-for-performance monthly capacity auction that can help cover revenue deficiencies in the energy market. Building on international experience with capacity markets, this approach provides incentives for availability when generation is needed most and is compatible with the adoption of a single energy market for all electricity resources. Out-of-market payments to cover stranded costs of certain firms can thus be minimized. Finally, engaging consumers in both these energy and capacity markets can create high-powered incentives to shift consumption to low-cost months and hours, benefitting the entire province.

Innovation will be critical in the transition to a low-carbon economy. Meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires reworking our existing energy infrastructure, but it is easier said than done. Rethinking energy systems hinges on reconciling the interests of many existing stakeholders: investors, banks, governments, energy companies, and consumers. Developing and fostering new ideas is the first step toward illuminating the frontiers of what is possible.

This policy brief emphasizes that the European Green Deal's effectiveness in a post Covid-19 world will require the involvement of strategic partners, especially the US. In the context of a potential US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the consequential vacuum, it will be even more important to engage the US in implementing the GD. In light of divergence between the US and the EU during past climate negotiations (e.g. Kyoto, Copenhagen, and Paris), we suggest a gradual approach to US engagement with GD initiatives and objectives.