Africa

Stephen Walt argues that relinquishing influence and sticking an adversary with a costly burden can sometimes be the epitome of strategic wisdom.

"Despite being on different sides of the Syrian civil war, Putin has managed to bring Riyadh into its diplomatic orbit through cooperation on oil policy, given how both Saudi-led OPEC states and Russia need substantially higher prices for government budgets to break even."

"...[A]fter seven-plus years in office, this most articulate of presidents never articulated a clear and coherent framework identifying what those vital interests are and why and spelling out how the United States could advance broader political ideals at acceptable cost and risk."

"The Islamic State, on the other hand, reached prominence in the chaotic aftermath of the Arab uprisings and at a time of great U.S. reluctance to intervene in the Middle East. It focused on gaining territory and establishing a caliphate as measures that would further increase its power as it attempts to remake the international system. The Islamic State also promoted a particularly radical ideology, genocidal toward Shiites and other Middle Eastern minorities and ruthless toward Sunnis who refuse to submit to its authority. As a result, not only does it manifest an even more expansive challenge to the international order, it is also better equipped to threaten this order."

"The obvious fact that judicial systems are an essential aspect of democracy is all too visible in Egypt today. It turns out that the third branch of the Egyptian government had a different take on all the euphoria over Tahrir Square. If the actions of the Egyptian military merely hinted at the old adage that power, once captured, is rarely relinquished, the Egyptian courts have proven it."

"...[A] range of countries, including the U.S. and Israel, has every interest in preventing a disorderly devaluation and financial crisis in a country of 80 million people on Israel's very doorstep. The $10 billion to $12 billion the IMF estimates Egypt needs would seem a paltry price to pay for regional stability."

"Michael Miller, a political scientist at Australia National University, has convincing new research that shows that economic growth in democracies is a key factor that determines if other countries in the world democratize. In other words, Tunisia's economy matters not only for its democratic future, but also for the future of other countries, in the Middle East and beyond."

"Post 9/11 politics placed security before reform and inadvertently justified extension or readoption of heavy-handed and semiauthoritarian practices even in states that had made some progress in moving away from dependence on security apparatuses."

"Egypt's future is not just about democracy, but about the basics of public security. If Egypt can't satisfy both simultaneously, then the Spring is lost. The battles on the street now are not about a unified vision of Egypt's future, but about competing visions of Egypt's fate."

"...[T]he biggest challenge the United States faces today is not a looming great-power rival; it is the triple whammy of accumulated debt, eroding infrastructure and a sluggish economy. The only way to have the world's most capable military forces both now and into the future is to have the world's most advanced economy, and that means having better schools, the best universities, a scientific establishment that is second to none, and a national infrastructure that enhances productivity and dazzles those who visit from abroad. These things all cost money, of course, but they would do far more to safeguard our long-term security than spending a lot of blood and treasure determining who should run Afghanistan, Kosovo, South Sudan, Libya, Yemen or any number of other strategic backwaters."