Africa

In his latest article for Metro U.N., Karl Kaiser, Senior Associate with the Belfer Center's Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship, shares his view on the impact of increased migration and refugee movements on Europe.

"What explains the Islamic State's disappointing record in Africa? Perhaps its leaders underestimated the historical ties between many African jihadi organizations and al Qaeda. Almost certainly they underestimated many African jihadi leaders' desire for autonomy, a trait that sat uneasily with the Islamic State's vision of centralized control through a caliphate. But the Islamic State also failed to back up its rhetorical appeals for loyalty with material support."

"Local pro-IS figures are willing, it seems, to move away from the actual IS organization's general practices, in particular related to the violence of control, in order to win over new supporters.  In Kenya, for example, pro-IS voices are reportedly attempt to lure support with promises of a decrease in violence (such as the implementation of the hudud or 'set' punishments for certain crimes such as murder and theft in Islamic criminal law) and lower taxes than with Al-Shabab."

"What happens when, after another dozen major attacks, the chain of their barbarism outpaces the chain of our human solidarity? When is the permissible moment to start asking if we can muster as much wisdom and realism to fight terror as we do to harness emotions of solidarity? The recent increasing pace and widening geographic scope of terror suggest we are dealing with a qualitatively new kinds of terrorists — but the policy responses of governments and the emotional responses of entire societies suggest we have no idea how to respond to quell this monster."

"The big new element in today’s Middle East is the continued emergence of decisive leadership, unilateral interventions, and diplomatic and military initiatives by the three major regional powers of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey. These three states’ concerns and actions on the ground now have immense impact, parallel to the deeds of global powers and Israel that traditionally influenced major regional trends..."

"Beijing's intentions are thoroughly aquatic: it is interested in power projection across water, not land. The facility in Djibouti is likely to be the first such instalment around the Indian Ocean from which Beijing can in the future protect the maritime trade routes which are so crucial to its economy. The fact that Djibouti is located at the crucial choke point through which vessels traversing the Suez Canal must pass only enhances its attractiveness as a base location."

"Freedom of expression and participation in the public sphere are powerful antidotes to the sense of hopelessness, marginalization, and helplessness that were such important drivers of the Arab uprisings and revolutions in 2011-12. The freedom to speak out and engage politically in society keeps people seeking non-violent ways to repair the broken systems and promises of their societies. For educated young adults, it also helps to keep them living in their own countries, rather than emigrating and depriving their societies of their talents and energy..."

"When colonial power structures ravage the lives of ordinary people for decades on end, and those people have no recourse to political, social, or economic redress of grievances, they will usually turn to God and their religion as a last resort to salvage their humanity. If the colonial exploitation continues unabated, that explosive situation will usually end in something dramatic and disruptive — revolution, mass uprisings, civil wars, and large-scale internal displacements and illegal migrations..."

"...[W]e now know that the notion that regime change leads to a better democratic or a humanitarian outcome is decidedly false. From Iraq, where the West tried a heavy footprint strategy, to Libya, where it opted for a light one, the idea that Europe or the United States can actually execute democratic change by force has been exposed as a fallacy."