Asia & the Pacific

This year’s Halifax International Security Forum paid respect to the 100th anniversary of the end of World War One, but in its final plenary session, Future Tense: Our World in Ten, the attention shifted to the future. How will the issues discussed throughout this year’s Forum play out over the next decade? Will democratic states be able to defend their values and institutions from growing threats like great power politics and cyber-warfare? This diverse set of panelists spoke confidently and optimistically about the resilience of democracies to withstand this challenge.

Matthew Bunn, Professor of Practice at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator at the Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom, sits down with Aroop Mukharji (@aroopmukharji) to talk about everything nuclear—from the nuclear football to the best way to prevent nuclear smuggling.

After Professor Nikos Passas (Northeastern University) led an MTA Seminar on February 25, titled "Illicit Flows: What They Hide and How to Counter Them", MTA Associate Aaron Arnold interviewed Pasass on Iran's Verification Regime.

Former Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department and current Senior Adviser on the Iran Nuclear Negotiations, Jake Sullivan, delivered an address entitled "Headlines and Trendlines - the Obama Administration's Foreign Policy" and led a discussion with the Future of Diplomacy Faculty Director, R. Nicholas Burns, experts, students, and fellows on October 30. He examined President Obama's current foreign policy strategy and priorities as well as expectations for the remaining two years of the Obama presidency.

In a Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE session titled "Challenges to US Global Leadership," Graham Allison, Nicholas Burns, David Gergen, David Ignatius, and Meghan O’Sullivan discussed challenges as well as opportunities facing the United States. Burns moderated the session.

Challenges include the rise of China and the future of the U.S.-China relationship, the crises taking place around the world, and the reputation of the U.S. worldwide. An unexpected opportunity is the increase in available energy sources in the United States.

The last seven decades without war among the great powers – what historians describe as “the long peace” – is a remarkable achievement. “This is a rare and unusual fact if you look at the last few thousand years of history,” said Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center and moderator of the IDEASpHERE panel “Winning the Peace.” “Furthermore, it is no accident. Wise choices by statesmen have contributed to ‘the long peace,’ which has allowed many generations to live their lives.”

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a former director of intelligence and counterintelligence at the Department of Energy, argues that despite not falling victim to a major terrorist event in the last 10 years, the United States must not be complacent in its counter-terrorism efforts. Mowatt-Larssen said in a Belfer Center seminar in September that he believes the possibility of a major attack is higher in the next 10 years than in the preceding decade.

By Vilas Rao, Research Assistant, India and South Asia Program

The Indian Ocean will become a critical area of influence over the next century, according to journalist and author Robert Kaplan, reflecting on the findings of his new book Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power.