Asia & the Pacific

Will protests at home hurt French President Macron's efforts to be seen as a leader of the West? Former U.S. ambassador to NATO Nicholas Burns digs in.

It's been six months since President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said they came to an agreement on denuclearization, but new satellite images published this week by an independent Washington think tank showed at least 13 previously undeclared missile operating bases in North Korea.

Senator Dan Sullivan (R - Alaska) discusses Graham Allison's book Destined for War: Can American and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? during a senate session on May 8, 2017.

The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.

The thought that what we are now witnessing in Ukraine could trigger a cascade of actions and reactions that end in war will strike most readers as fanciful. Fortunately, it is, writes Graham Allison. But we should not forget that in May 1914, the possibility that the assassination of an Archduke could produce a world war seemed almost inconceivable. History teaches that unlikely, even unimaginable events do happen.

As the 2014 deadline for the withdrawal of international troops in Afghanistan looms, the speakers explored what is required to ensure a smooth transition and avoid a descent into chaos.

Belfer Center Fellow Simon Saradzhyan offers an inside view of the Medvedev/Putin relationship and why Putin “had to come back to the Kremlin four years after stepping down and backing Medvedev to succeed him as Russia’s president.” Saradzhyan writes that this act may have been connected to Medvedev’s behavior or perceived behavior during the 2008 war in Georgia as noted in a YouTube clip showing three former high-ranking Russian commanders accusing Russia’s then Commander-in-Chief Dmitry Medvedev of indecisiveness during the initial stage of the 2008 war.

In a year marked by both hopeful trends and alarming challenges, the Belfer Center’s mission to provide thoughtful, policy-relevant research and insights for a more secure, peaceful world has never been more timely. In 2015, our faculty and fellows delved into critical issues from Iran’s nuclear program, China’s rise, and Russian relations to violent extremism, climate talks, U.S. leadership, and economic growth. Whether in books, reports, testimony, commentary, or multimedia, see the ways our experts responded to a world in need of impactful ideas.