Asia & the Pacific

Michael Beckley explains how power can be measured more accurately by calculating a country’s net resources.

The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.

In a Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE session titled "Challenges to US Global Leadership," Graham Allison, Nicholas Burns, David Gergen, David Ignatius, and Meghan O’Sullivan discussed challenges as well as opportunities facing the United States. Burns moderated the session.

Challenges include the rise of China and the future of the U.S.-China relationship, the crises taking place around the world, and the reputation of the U.S. worldwide. An unexpected opportunity is the increase in available energy sources in the United States.

The last seven decades without war among the great powers – what historians describe as “the long peace” – is a remarkable achievement. “This is a rare and unusual fact if you look at the last few thousand years of history,” said Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center and moderator of the IDEASpHERE panel “Winning the Peace.” “Furthermore, it is no accident. Wise choices by statesmen have contributed to ‘the long peace,’ which has allowed many generations to live their lives.”

Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd spoke at a Belfer Center Director's Lunch on "China's New Leadership and the Prospects for Economic and Political Reform."

Graham Allison, director of Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, introduced Rudd at the event. A video podcast of Rudd's opening presentation is available below.

The world “hungers” for American engagement and leadership, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg said in the first Future of Diplomacy Project interview, a series aimed at gaining insights on international affairs from prominent policy makers.

Nicholas D. Kristof, New York Times columnist and co-author of Half The Sky: Turning Oppression Into Opportunity For Women Worldwide, discusses integration of women as part of a solution to global problems at a seminar hosted by the Belfer Center’s Future of Diplomacy Project.

Niall Ferguson analyzes China's ability to use the 2008 Beijing Olympics as a way to peacefully gain power in international politics.