Asia & the Pacific

Nicholas Miller on why states with nuclear energy programs are not more likely to pursue nuclear weapons.

Taylor Fravel discusses whether China will abandon its long-standing nuclear strategy of assured retaliation for a first-use posture.

Amid heightened fighting in eastern Ukraine this week, with separatist rebels gaining control of several checkpoints along the Russian border as well as various military bases in Luhansk, few observers are forecasting a peaceful resolution to the conflict anytime soon. Yet even as President Obama and Putin trade warnings alongside D-Day anniversary commemorations, the terms of an eventual agreement are not difficult to imagine.

In a Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE session titled "Challenges to US Global Leadership," Graham Allison, Nicholas Burns, David Gergen, David Ignatius, and Meghan O’Sullivan discussed challenges as well as opportunities facing the United States. Burns moderated the session.

Challenges include the rise of China and the future of the U.S.-China relationship, the crises taking place around the world, and the reputation of the U.S. worldwide. An unexpected opportunity is the increase in available energy sources in the United States.

The last seven decades without war among the great powers – what historians describe as “the long peace” – is a remarkable achievement. “This is a rare and unusual fact if you look at the last few thousand years of history,” said Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center and moderator of the IDEASpHERE panel “Winning the Peace.” “Furthermore, it is no accident. Wise choices by statesmen have contributed to ‘the long peace,’ which has allowed many generations to live their lives.”

The thought that what we are now witnessing in Ukraine could trigger a cascade of actions and reactions that end in war will strike most readers as fanciful. Fortunately, it is, writes Graham Allison. But we should not forget that in May 1914, the possibility that the assassination of an Archduke could produce a world war seemed almost inconceivable. History teaches that unlikely, even unimaginable events do happen.

As evidence emerges, more is becoming known about Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, the brothers suspected of carrying out the Boston Marathon attacks, writes Simon Saradzhyan. "They were reportedly devout Muslims who were born into a family of ethnic Chechens, lived in the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan, and studied in Russia’s North Caucasus, before coming to the United States as children. Over time, the older brother, Tamerlan, became a more radical figure. Whatever his motivation, he was following a similar path to that of some insurgents in the North Caucasus, who once focused on achieving secular independence for their homeland, but went on to become intertwined in international jihadist networks that share a belief that their number one enemy is America."

"The terrorists who wreaked deadly havoc by bombing the Boston Marathon and then going on a shooting spree in nearby towns did not disclose the reasons behind their actions or claim responsibility for the attack.

But as evidence emerges, more is becoming known about Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, the brothers suspected of carrying out the attacks. They were reportedly devout Muslims who were born into a family of ethnic Chechens, lived in the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan, and studied in Russia’s North Caucasus, before coming to the United States as children. Over time, the older brother, Tamerlan, became a more radical figure. Whatever his motivation, he was following a similar path to that of some insurgents in the North Caucasus, who once focused on achieving secular independence for their homeland, but went on to become intertwined in international jihadist networks that share a belief that their number one enemy is America," writes Simon Saradzhyan for the Boston Globe.

This seminar examined the prospects for further nuclear arms reductions between the United States and Russia, including the possibility that negotiations might be expanded to weapons not limited by the New START Treaty. The seminar covered U.S. and Russian differences over missile defense and how those might be resolved to allow a cooperative NATO-Russia missile defense arrangement for Europe.