Asia & the Pacific

"Imagine a visitor from Mars looking at the cards each player holds. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, our Martian would be wise to bet on the US. It holds four aces that are likely to outlast the Trump administration."

On April 28, the Project on Managing the Atom joined the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, The Netherlands government, and the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) in convening nuclear nonproliferation experts from around the world at the United Nations to participate in a Symposium on the 2015 Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference.

"For some time, many people at home and abroad have bought into the myth of American decline. Increasing dependence on energy imports was often cited as evidence. The shale revolution changes that dependence and demonstrates the combination of entrepreneurship, property rights and capital markets that are this country's underlying strength."

"Moscow...has a history of manipulating energy supplies for political ends. It used the suspension and threat of suspension of gas supplies to put pressure on its neighbors, including Ukraine. That means it is reasonable for Tehran to have concerns about Russia's trustworthiness as a partner on Bushehr. And unlike some other countries, Iran doesn't have the option of turning to multiple foreign providers, and doesn't believe that it is likely anyone will come to its rescue if Russia doesn't deliver.

"...American exceptionalism has its exceptions. As stated by the authors of 'Becoming Enemies: U.S.-Iran Relations and the Iran-Iraq War, 1979–1988,' 'For much of the war, particularly in its final phases, Washington turned a blind eye to Iraq's massive use of chemical weapons.' This included the gassing of some 5,000 civilians (the Kurdish population in Halabja, Iraq in March 1988) and more strategically significant, the gassing of thousands of Iranian troops in the spring of 1988, which led to Iraq gaining the ascendancy in the fighting and was a major cause in Iran's in effect suing for a cease fire that summer."

Despite substantial progress in improving nuclear security in recent years, there is more to be done.  The threats of nuclear theft and terrorism remain very real.  This paper recommends learning from the much stronger national and international efforts in nuclear safety, and in particular taking steps to build international understanding of the threat; establish effective performance objectives; assure performance; train and certify needed personnel; build security culture and exchange best practices; reduce the number of sites that need to be protected; and strengthen the international framework and continue the dialogue once leaders are no longer meeting regularly at the summit level.

Through structured interviews and a literature review, we assess which approaches to protection against insider thefts in the casino and pharmaceutical industries could be usefully applied to strengthen protections against insider theft in the nuclear industry, where insider thefts could have very high consequences.