Asia & the Pacific

Joseph S. Nye writes that evaluating ethics in international relations is difficult, and Kissinger's legacy is particularly complex. Over his long tenure in government, he had many great successes, including with China and the Soviet Union and the Middle East. Kissinger also had major failures, including in how the Vietnam War ended. But on net, his legacy is positive. In a world haunted by the specter of nuclear war, his decisions made the international order more stable and safer.

Stephen Walt writes that it may seem harder to give thanks this year, but it's not impossible. He enumerates five things for which to be grateful, including that none of the outside parties in the Middle East seem inclined to expand the conflict beyond Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank.

Stephen Walt analyzes how the war in Gaza will have widespread geopolitical effects.

Stephen Walt critiques Vivek Ramaswamy's claim of being a foreign policy realist.

Michael Lipin interviews Project on Managing the Atom Associate Nicole Grajewski on why Iran may not benefit much from its new membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Stephen Walt critiques Henry Kissinger's professional life by dividing it into three parts: as an academic at Harvard; as national security advisor and secretary of state; and as an author, pundit, and sage, much of it conducted as the head of Kissinger Associates, the consulting firm he founded after leaving government.

This year's G7 summit in Hiroshima sees nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation sitting high on the agenda, amid rising tensions between the nuclear states and an increasingly divided international order.  Six contributors offer their analyses, including the Belfer Center's Mayumi Fukushima.

At the 2021 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, the bloc announced the approval of Iran's longstanding bid for membership. The Islamic Republic has viewed its involvement in the organization as a means of bolstering external legitimacy, fostering security-oriented regionalism, and promoting the transition toward the so-called multipolar world order. The SCO, led by Russia and China, has served as a regime-preservation network by providing Iran with a source of solidarity against external pressure. Tehran's commitment to the normative order, sustained by the SCO's discourse of noninterference, sovereignty, and countering the “three evils”—terrorism, extremism, and separatism—has galvanized the organization's role as a common front against the imposition of liberal norms and challenges to regime security.

In contrast to Nye’s definition of soft power compared to US “hard” power and diplomatic supremacy, it was Hu Jintao in 2007 who first used the term at the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party to link “the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation to the ability of China to deploy cultural soft power (文化软实力)” (Hu, 2007). Subsequently in 2009, Hu Jintao emphasized that “[China] should strengthen public diplomacy and humanities diplomacy and commence various kinds of cultural exchange activities in order to disseminate China’s great culture” (Hu, 2009). While the phrase “soft power” often echoes Nye’s original vision, the idea’s central premise—that power is wielded through institutions to shape values—is very much in line with the Confucian idea of leadership by moral elites (德治天下); a philosophy that applies in the same way in both domestic and international contexts. Hu Jintao perceived the Chinese government’s influence on its own people as the primary determinant of China’s influence abroad. That ethos has carried over across China’s political and economic arenas.

The application of soft power in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) can be characterized as both ethno- and geo-centric. Parts of the MENA region began exercising soft power via pan-Arab solidarity movements during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and after the founding of the Arab League in 1945. Driven by upper- and middle-class urban actors, these movements were multi-faceted and centered around promoting pan-Arab soft power tools—such as culture and the Arabic language— as a departure from the region’s history of Western colonialism. While religious and the nationalist ideologies have since eclipsed pan-Arabism’s regional prominence, soft power remains a key tool for MENA diplomacy, particularly in the Gulf countries touting strong and wealthy state institutions. Saudi Arabia has seized soft power as a diplomatic tool through successfully branding its Vision 2030 strategy as a policy for opening the nation up to the rest of the world. Similarly, the Emirates’ own Vision 2030 agenda and Dubai’s hosting of Expo 2020 have become a symbol of the Emirates’ economic vitality and resource diversification beyond oil. Qatar’s hosting of the FIFA World Cup 2022 is widely viewed as the zenith of mega-events in the MENA region, having put the city state firmly on the map. Religious tourism—including the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia, the Shia pilgrimage in Iraq, and visiting biblical sites in both Jordan and Palestine—is another tool by which MENA governments exercise soft power and attract foreigners from abroad.

According to the "Madman Theory" outlined by Daniel Ellsberg and Thomas C. Schelling, and embraced by Presidents Richard Nixon and Donald Trump, being perceived as mad can help make seemingly incredible threats—such as starting a nuclear war—more credible. However, recent research has largely concluded that the Madman Theory does not work.