Asia & the Pacific

Many states with young populations are growing old fast. If states with older populations engage in violent conflict less frequently than states with large numbers of young people, the implications for the international order could be significant. 

The risks of nuclear escalation are greater than ever given the possibility of misinterpreted cyber espionage and military strikes against early warning systems. 

China’s maritime neighbors can prevent China from dominating East Asia militarily, allowing the United States to avoid the costs and risks of expanding its forces in the region. These states have developed antiaccess/area-denial capabilities that can deny China command of its near seas. The United States should support these capabilities while taking steps to enhance crisis stability.

Claims that drones will soon remake warfare or international politics are unwarranted. Although almost a dozen states now possess armed drones, and more are racing to acquire them, they will not play a decisive role in interstate conflicts. Drones will rarely be “winning weapons,” because they are vulnerable to air defenses. States will, however, continue to use drones against terrorists and domestic opponents.

William Z.Y. Wang responds to Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth's winter 2015/16 article, "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century: China’s Rise and the Fate of America’s Global Position."

Conventional accounts of the United States’ 1972 Linebacker I and Linebacker II deep air interdiction campaigns portray them as crucial to stopping the North Vietnamese Army’s Easter Offensive and convincing North Vietnam to sign the Paris peace accords. In fact, however, U.S. close air support and battlefield air interdiction contributed far more to achieving these outcomes than did the Linebacker campaigns.

Ronan Tse-min Fu, David James Gill, and Eric Hundman respond to Adam P. Liff and G. John Ikenberry's fall 2014 article, "Racing toward Tragedy? China's Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma."