Asia & the Pacific

Dr. Ian Bremmer, expert in political risk and founder of the Eurasia Group, gave a seminar sponsored by the the Future of Diplomacy Project on Thursday, November 9 at the Harvard Kennedy School, titled “Managing Risk in an Unstable World."

The Right Honourable Douglas Alexander offered his views on European security in a discussion moderated by FDP Executive Director Cathryn Cluver.

As President Obama prepares to host a summit with ASEAN leaders in Sunnylands, California, next week, Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Asia-Pacific Security Program Director Patrick Cronin and Pereira International CEO Derwin Pereira have written a new commentary for CNAS titled “High Stakes at the Sunnylands Summit.” The commentary is a product of CNAS’ Derwin Pereira Southeast Asian Foreign Policy Roundtables.

The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.

India’s recent general election could be the most important positive economic event of 2014. Indian voters decisively rejected the Congress party, which had governed India virtually without interruption since it gained independence from Britain in 1947. They are likely to be happy they did.

Ronak Desai discusses the problem that corruption poses to international companies looking to invest in India.

"Oligarchs  in Indonesia today have such a stranglehold over the political process that the outcome of next year's presidential race will largely be in their hands. Outsiders eyeing the top post will not get far, even if they are popular, without the approval of one of the nation's powerful families."

"...[W]hile the BRICS may be helpful in coordinating certain diplomatic tactics, the term lumps together highly disparate countries. Not only is South Africa miniscule compared with the others, but China's economy is larger than those of all of the other members combined. Likewise, India, Brazil and South Africa are democracies, and occasionally meet in an alternative forum that they call IBSA (the India, Brazil, South Africa Dialogue Forum)."