Middle East & North Africa

On June 23 and 24, twenty five experts met at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government under the auspices of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. The group, which included experts from academia, the financial sector, government, and the energy industry, spent an evening and the following full day discussing and debating the possible energy implications of a nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran.

In the lead-up to the nuclear security summit, Advancing Nuclear Security: Evaluating Progress and Setting New Goals outlines what was accomplished in a four-year effort launched in 2009 to secure nuclear material around the globe—and what remains to be done. The effort made significant progress, but some weapons-usable nuclear materials still remain “dangerously vulnerable." The authors highlight the continuing danger of nuclear and radiological terrorism and call for urgent action.

A long-standing goal of diplomacy with Iran is persuading Iran to suspend its enrichment operations while it clarifies its past activities and while negotiations proceed on a more permanent resolution to the nuclear crisis. However, there is problem in using suspension of nuclear material production as a negotiating step: The technical details of suspension have never been clearly defined. The international community needs to be aware of the diversion risks during a suspension of enrichment activities and should mitigate these risks by including the necessary verification measures during negotiations and signing of any agreement on suspension.

HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal’s new plan boldly picks up the challenge. He has recognized that, in his words, “there is no more pressing international threat to peace and security than the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their possible use.” A veteran of international diplomacy, he understands that the path leading towards the summit of a world without nuclear weapons will be a long and hazardous climb. But he believes that real victories can be gained, and the security ofthe world enhanced, by aiming for achievable intermediate goals along the way.

This report marks the culmination of a two-year research project that examined all aspects of the mandate and operations of the International Atomic Energy Agency, from major programs on safeguards, safety, security, and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy to governance, management, and finance.

The Preventive Defense Project conducted a Washington WMD Workshop entitled "Iran Plan B Design" to collect the best thinking on the design of a plan for dealing with Iran's nuclear program should diplomacy fail and the Iranians continue on the path to nuclear capability.

Sean P. Hazlett's Policy Analysis Exercise examines U.S. policy options for addressing Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Leaders at the 2010 nuclear security summit agreed on the goal of securing all vulnerable nuclear material in four years, but the factors that drive and/or constrain nuclear security changes are not well understood. Matthew Bunn and Eben Harrell surveyed nuclear security professionals in countries with nuclear weapons, HEU, or separated plutonium to explore this issue. This paper describes the survey, its results, and implications for strengthening global nuclear security.