28 Items

People walk in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Jan. 23, 2017. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

AP Photo/Sergei Grits

Analysis & Opinions - The Brookings Institution

The New Geopolitics of Central Asia: China Vies for Influence in Russia's Backyard

| Jan. 02, 2018

Kazakhstan is a critical node and is now on the verge of China’s embrace. Not surprisingly, the government in Astana is keen to benefit from the project: It seeks to diversify its economy away from exporting oil and natural resources and wants to improve its road and rail infrastructures in order to expand its logistics sector. If successful, this could help Kazakhstan move from being a middle-income to a high-income country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, is greeted by Chinese President Xi Jinping before the opening ceremony at the fourth Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit, in Shanghai, China Wednesday, May 21, 2014. (AP Photo/Mark Ralston, Pool)

AP Photo/Mark Ralston, Pool

Analysis & Opinions - Russia Matters

A Sino-Russian Military-Political Alliance Would Be Bad News for America

| May 12, 2017

When Vladimir Putin visits Beijing on May 14-15, he will likely join dozens of other countries’ leaders in singing the praises of President Xi Jinping’s international transport infrastructure initiative, known as “One Belt, One Road,” or OBOR. The fact that the Russian leadership has come around to supporting OBOR even though it will not necessarily be conducive to some of Russia’s vital interests signals Moscow’s readiness to pursue even closer ties with Beijing. This, in turn, could eventually culminate in the establishment of an official military-political alliance between the two countries if tensions between the West and Russia continue. The emergence of such an alliance would be bad news for America.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, listen to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement at the end of the BRICS summit in Goa, India, Sunday, Oct. 16, 2016. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, or BRICS, face the tough task of asserting their growing influence as a power group even as they bridge their own trade rivalries to help grow their economies. (AP Photo/Manish Swarup)

(AP Photo/Manish Swarup)

Analysis & Opinions - The Straits Times

Trump inaugurates the end of the end of the Cold War

| Feb. 03, 2017

While all the attention on US President Donald Trump has been fixated on his controversial policy moves, what should capture the world's attention is its strategic future. That future involves a new relationship between the US, Russia and China. It predicts the end of the end of the Cold War. It is Russia, however, that could emerge as the new international kingpin and the balancer of power between the US and China.

The world is getting better. Why don’t we believe it?

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

The world is getting better. Why don’t we believe it?

| January 26, 2016

It would seem entirely reasonable to conclude that the world has taken several turns for the worse since President George H.W. Bush delivered his famous “new world order” address. The United Nations estimates that more than 250,000 people have perished in Syria’s civil war, and another million or so have been injured. With vast swathes of the Middle East collapsing, the Islamic State continues to wreak havoc, increasingly inspiring and coordinating attacks outside the region.

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

The Global Economy Confronts Four Geopolitical Risks

| December 28, 2015

The end of the year is a good time to consider the risks that lie ahead of us. There are of course important economic risks, including the mispricing of assets caused by a decade of ultra-low interest rates, the shifts in demand caused by the Chinese economy’s changing structure, and European economies’ persistent weakness. But the main longer-term risks are geopolitical, stemming from four sources: Russia, China, the Middle East, and cyberspace.

Although the Soviet Union no longer exists, Russia remains a formidable nuclear power, with the ability to project force anywhere in the world. Russia is also economically weak because of its dependence on oil revenue at a time when prices are down dramatically. President Vladimir Putin has already warned Russians that they face austerity, because the government will no longer be able to afford the transfer benefits that it provided in recent years.

Alexey Miller on behalf of Russia and China sign a USD$ 400 billion dollar gas deal

Wikimedia Commons

Analysis & Opinions - Open Democracy

Sino-Russian energy relations reversed: a new little brother

| Dec. 22, 2015

In the year since Russia and China signed a landmark $400bn natural gas pact in May 2014, rapid developments in the energy sector and the geopolitical situation offer a chance to re-examine the deal. Indeed, the aftermath of the pact saw a return to a world of cheaper oil—a situation driven by a number of factors outside of Russia’s control. The buffeting winds of broadbrush western sanctions have deepened the uncertain fiscal outlook for Russia’s hydrocarbon-driven economy, calling its financial resilience into question.

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Book - Oxford University Press

A Liberal Actor in a Realist World: The European Union Regulatory State and the Global Political Economy of Energy

| October 2015

A Liberal Actor in a Realist World assesses the changing nature of the global political economy of energy and the European Union's response, and the external dimension of the regulatory state. The book concludes that the EU's soft power has a hard edge, which is derived primarily from its regulatory power.

NATO and Polish Flags, 31 August 2007. If Russian power continues to decline and the United States focuses more and more attention on Asia, NATO will be increasingly irrelevant.

Julo Photo

Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Policy

What Will 2050 Look Like?

| May 12, 2015

"...[T]he alliances forged during the long Cold War have been around a long time and have proven to be remarkably durable, but can we really be confident NATO or America's Asian alliances will still be around and still be meaningful thirty-five years down the road? If Russian power continues to decline and the United States focuses more and more attention on Asia, NATO will be increasingly irrelevant."