Russia

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People walk by a money exchange shop in Hong Kong.

AP/Kin Cheung

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

The COVID-19 Cash Out

| Mar. 19, 2020

Because hand-to-hand exchange of physical currency could transmit the coronavirus, countries around the world are being forced to reconsider the use of cash. In fact, COVID-19 might turn out to be the catalyst that finally brings digital payments fully into the mainstream. Not surprisingly, the digital-payments industry is already focusing on the opportunities created by the crisis.

Russian President Boris Yeltsin, left, American President Bill Clinton, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, and British Prime Minister John Major sign the Budapest Memorandum on Dec. 5, 1994 (Marcy Nighswander/Associated Press).

Marcy Nighswander/Associated Press

Paper - Managing the Atom Project, Belfer Center

Budapest Memorandum at 25: Between Past and Future

| March 2020

On December 5, 1994, leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation met in Budapest, Hungary, to pledge security assurances to Ukraine in connection with its accession to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapons state. The signature of the so-called Budapest Memorandum concluded arduous negotiations that resulted in Ukraine’s agreement to relinquish the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, which the country inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union, and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement. The signatories of the memorandum pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders, and to refrain from the use or threat of military force. Russia breached these commitments with its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and aggression in eastern Ukraine, bringing the meaning and value of security assurance pledged in the Memorandum under renewed scrutiny.

On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the memorandum’s signature, the Project on Managing the Atom at the Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, with the support of the Center for U.S.-Ukrainian Relations and the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, hosted a conference to revisit the history of the Budapest Memorandum, consider the repercussions of its violation for international security and the broader nonproliferation regime, and draw lessons for the future. The conference brought together academics, practitioners, and experts who have contributed to developing U.S. policy toward post-Soviet nuclear disarmament, participated in the negotiations of the Budapest Memorandum, and dealt with the repercussions of its breach in 2014. The conference highlighted five key lessons learned from the experience of Ukraine’s disarmament, highlighted at the conference.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a videoconference with G20 leaders to discuss the coronavirus disease outbreak.

Alexei Druzhinin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Analysis & Opinions - Russia Matters

16 More Years of Putin: A Promise of Stability That Looks Like Stagnation

| Mar. 13, 2020

In an unscheduled, but quite choreographed appearance at the State Duma this week, Vladimir Putin has blessed a constitutional amendment that would allow him to stay in the Kremlin through 2036. “The President is the guarantor of the Constitution or, simply put, the guarantor of the country’s security, domestic stability and, as I said before, evolutionary development,” Putin told the lower chamber on March 10. What the 67-year-old leader, who may end up ruling Russia longer than Ivan the Terrible, did not mention in his address to the lower chamber, however, is that his lifetime presidency would actually bode ill for the stability of the country in the longer-term.

Ronald Reagan giving a speech at the Berlin Wall, Brandenburg Gate

NARA

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

What Is a Moral Foreign Policy?

| Mar. 04, 2020

A foreign policy should be judged not only by specific actions, but also by how a pattern of actions shapes the environment of world politics. Leadership in supplying global public goods, for example, is consistent with "America First," but it rests on a broader historical and institutional understanding than Donald Trump has shown.

Director Janne Kuusela and Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook

Belfer Center/Benn Craig

Analysis & Opinions - Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship

The Future of the Transatlantic Defense Relationship: Views from Finland and the EU

    Author:
  • Winston Ellington Michalak
| Mar. 03, 2020

February 7, 2020: With the advent of the digital age and the rise of Russia and China as global powers, the EU must do more to defend itself and its relationship with the United States, according to Janne Kuusela, Director General Janne Kuusela. In an event moderated by  Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Executive Director of the Future of Diplomacy Project and the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship he explained why Finland could be a potential paradigm for the EU’s defense strategy. 

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and China's President Xi Jinping shake hands prior to their talks on the sideline of the 11th edition of the BRICS Summit, in Brasilia, Brazil, Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2019.

Ramil Sitdikov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Analysis & Opinions - Barron's

Russia and China Are Hard Targets for U.S. Sanctions. That Could Be a Problem.

| Feb. 29, 2020

When wielded effectively, U.S. sanctions have weakened targets like Iran and North Korea without impacting the global economy. But against authoritarian heavyweights like Russia and China, this may no longer be the case. America’s policy options are narrowing.

Will the Coronavirus Trigger a Global Recession?

David Dee Delgado/Getty Images

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

Will the Coronavirus Trigger a Global Recession?

| Feb. 24, 2020

At the start of this year, things seemed to be looking up for the global economy. True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019: from 2.9% to 2.3% in the United States, and from 3.6% to 2.9% globally. Still, there had been no recession, and as recently as January, the International Monetary Fund projected a global growth rebound in 2020. The new coronavirus, COVID-19, has changed all of that.

In this file photo taken on Monday, July 16, 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, shake hand at the beginning of a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland. Experts say Putin isn’t necessarily dictating every Russian influence campaign abroad. Some accused of meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections appear to be ambitious individuals taking the initiative based on signals from the presidential entourage. 

AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, File

Analysis & Opinions - The Hill

Arms Control Agreement With Russia Should Cover More Than Nuclear Weapons

| Feb. 23, 2020

With the Russia investigation and impeachment behind him, President Trump finally may feel empowered to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin and pursue an arms control deal.  Arms control experts are focused on whether the U.S. and Russia can save the 2010 New START Treaty, which limits strategic nuclear weapons.

In this Jan. 8, 2020, file photo, national security adviser Robert O'Brien, listens as President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the White House in Washington. President Donald Trump's national security adviser says he has not seen any intelligence indicating that Russia is doing anything to try to get the president re-elected. The comments by O'Brien were released Saturday, Feb. 22, 2020, in a transcript of an interview with ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" set to air on Sunday. 

AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File

Analysis & Opinions - The New York Times

Dueling Narratives Emerge From Muddied Account of Russia’s 2020 Interference

| Feb. 23, 2020

As accusations swirled Sunday about Russia’s efforts to interfere with the 2020 election, President Trump’s national security adviser and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. could not agree on what Moscow is, or is not, doing.

Their disagreement came as intelligence officials disputed reports that emerged last week about a briefing of the House Intelligence Committee. The officials now maintain that the House members either misheard or misinterpreted a key part of the briefing, and that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not mean to say that it believes the Russians are currently intervening in the election explicitly to help President Trump.