Conflict & Conflict Resolution

Foreign Affairs has recently published a number of articles on how the United States should engage with the Taliban government in Afghanistan, extremist forces within the regime, how the West can help ordinary Afghans, and the fate of the country’s women. To complement these essays, Foreign Affairs asked a broad pool of experts for their take. As with previous surveys, Foreign Affairs approached dozens of authorities with expertise relevant to the question at hand, along with leading generalists in the field. Participants were asked to state whether they agreed or disagreed with a proposition and to rate their confidence level in their opinion. Two Belfer Center experts participated, International Security Executive Editor Jacqueline L. Hazelton and Future of Diplomacy Project Senior Fellow Paula Dobriansky.

The entanglement and feedback loops among the domestic and the geopolitical cycles of distrust have resulted in a cohesive threat to democracy: a downward political spiral that is pulling societies towards enmity. This spiral feeds on and generates destructive human emotions at massive scale, such as outrage and hatred, that lead to violence, war, and autocracy, so it can be better understood as a dangerous global maelstrom of distrust, which could sink democracy worldwide. As showcased by historical evidence, domestic and international forces do not act in isolation from each other. Democratic backsliding, the rise of authoritarianism and totalitarianism, and the politics of aggression generated feedback loops in the 1930s, that resulted in WWII. Similar forces are again working in the 2020s. If massive distrust can wreck democracy worldwide, it follows that the regeneration of trust is the path to democratic revitalization.

In the words of Walter White, Executive Secretary of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) from 1929–1955, “Race discrimination threatens our national security. We can no longer afford to let the most backward sections of our population endanger our country by persisting in discriminating practices. We must meet the challenge of our neighbors, not only because discrimination is immoral, but also because it is dangerous.” What was true more than half a century ago continues today.

Ownership of reforms by citizens is often presented as important for success. This paper explores media engagement and support for economic reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using text analysis techniques on publicly available sources. Results show that while reform efforts have intensified in recent years in the GCC, these efforts tend to focus on stronger rather than weaker policy areas, potentially limiting the growth-enhancing effect of reforms. Social media analysis using Twitter shows that the population’s support for reforms has been declining. The analysis of traditional
news media points to more engagement by international than by local media. However, sentiment from international media is less positive about economic reforms in the GCC. Sentiment in international media and social media matters, as evidenced by its positive and strong correlation with FDI inflows into the GCC.

The Middle East Initiative is pleased to announce that Dr. Omar Razzaz, former Prime Minister of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, will serve as a non-resident Emirates Leadership Initiative Senior Fellow during the Spring and Fall 2022 semesters at Harvard Kennedy School’s Middle East Initiative (MEI).

Melissa Fleming, Under-Secretary-General for Global Communications at the United Nations, explains the challenges of her role in an era of profound political, social and digital fragmentation and polarization. Ms. Fleming outlines the new approach she is bringing to UN communications – one that aims not just to inform the public of what the UN does, but to engage them to care and mobilize them for action. She also explores the threats posed by misinformation, on COVID-19, climate change and so much more. Erika Manouselis, Research and Administrative Manager at the Future of Diplomacy Project, moderated this discussion.

Recap of MEI Event “Can the Future of Jihadism Be Predicted?” with Dr. Thomas Hegghammer

President Biden seems to have set a trap for himself—and for Americans, allied personnel and Afghans seeking to leave Afghanistan. Those civilians were stranded after Mr. Biden withdrew U.S. troops only to be surprised by the Taliban’s quick takeover. Mr. Biden promised to evacuate them by Aug. 31, and the Taliban said they’d hold him to that deadline. On Monday the administration signaled that it intends to abide by it. It won’t be enough time.

Robert Danin, Senior Fellow with the Future of Diplomacy Project, speaks to Sky News about the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East.

Douglas Alexander reviews Niall Ferguson's Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. He writes, "the reader is taken at breathless pace through a survey of disastrous events ranging from those which we think we already know something about (the first world war; the sinking of the Titanic) to those we really should have known more about (the Soviet Union’s famines of 1921-23 and 1932-33)."