Conflict & Conflict Resolution

In post-conflict societies, divisions can emerge between returnee and nonmigrant groups, which can in turn lead to violence and destabilization when government institutions favor one group over another.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has succeeded in amending the unpopular Brexit deal, removing the widely disliked backstop, and replacing it with a revised protocol for Northern Ireland. He brought his new plan to the House of Commons in an unusual Saturday session on October 19; Parliament had required the government to ask the European Union for an extension to the October 31 deadline if the divorce settlement was not approved by that date. But Parliament delayed consideration of his revised agreement, first wanting to ensure the U.K. would not leave the EU without a deal. Johnson begrudgingly asked the EU for an extension, which it is now considering. Parliament is expected to vote on Johnson’s deal this week, with the numbers too close to call.

Nathaniel Moir reviews  Jungle Mission by René Riesen. He writes that Jungle Mission exemplifies applied history.  For armed forces engaging with diverse cultures, this book provides an individual precedent and useful analogies that illuminate contemporary problems where cultural intelligence is critical.

Transactions are a normal part of building military coalitions. That is a reality of world politics. But making them work requires having social and political networks in place to ensure the agreement is actually put into action. With the Kurds, the United States has cultivated ties over the past decade — resulting in successful cooperation against the Islamic State. By abandoning the Kurds, Trump is throwing away these decade-long investments. Further, memories of U.S. abandonment may well make it impossible to ever reactivate those networks.

The ruthless Syrian dictator is guilty of countless war crimes—and regrettably represents his country’s least bad remaining option.

The American betrayal of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) bears an uncanny resemblance to what happened in Kirkuk two years ago. The geopolitical dynamics are strikingly similar: Turkish hostility to Kurdish aspirations, American intransigence and unwillingness to support the Kurdish allies they relied on to defeat the Islamic State, resulting in a win for Iran.

For years, Turkey’s government allowed Islamic State fighters to cross its territory into Syria. But, before Monday, there were no Islamic State fighter elements along Turkey’s border with Syria because Kurds, Arabs and Christians expelled them with help from the U.S. military. Today, these U.S. allies are running for their lives.

Following President Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from northern Syria, Belfer Center experts discussed the impact on America, our allies and adversaries, and the region.

Chuck Freilich writes that he found good and caring people; the only problem was that they are living in denial, in a fervent but alternative reality where the occupation is not only sustainable but irreversible. The catastrophic experience of binational states, such as Syria, Iraq, and Ireland, does not appear to have penetrated their levels of denial.

Donald Trump has ordered a small U.S. military contingent to withdraw from Kurdish controlled parts of Northeastern Syria in advance of a likely Turkish military operation. The situation is rapidly evolving and in this episode of the Global Dispatches podcast an expert on Kurdish politics and diplomacy, Morgan Kaplan, provides some background and context for understanding events as they unfold.