Economics & Global Affairs

2419 Items

President Joe Biden greets China's President President Xi Jinping

Doug Mills/The New York Times via AP, Pool, File

Analysis & Opinions - Financial Times (London)

America Should Aim for Competitive Coexistence with China

| Nov. 16, 2023

Joseph Nye writes that Washington's strategy towards Beijing should be to avoid either a hot or cold war, co-operate when possible and marshal its assets to shape China's external behaviour. This can be done through deterrence and a strengthening of both alliances and international institutions.

The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Dewey (DDG 105), front, and the Independence-variant littoral combat ship USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS 10), rear, conduct joint operations with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer JS Akebono (DD-108) in the South China Sea

U.S. Navy photo by Aviation Electronics Technician 2nd Class Lucas Herzog

Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Navigating China’s Opportunistic Approach to Overseas Naval Base Acquisition

| November 2023

This report, by Maxwell Simon (MPP '23) and Jayaram Ravi (MPP '23), explores the drivers of setback and success that China has encountered in the process of developing dual-use and military-dedicated naval installations abroad. It looks at cases where China has considered or actively pursued military-dedicated installations to characterize Beijing’s general approach to overseas naval base acquisition.

"Speaking of Leaks," cartoon, Independent, January 29, 1917.

Wikimedia Commons

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

"Wars without Gun Smoke": Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic Statecraft

  • Ling S. Chen
  • Miles M. Evers
| Fall 2023

Power transitions affect a state’s ability to exercise economic statecraft. As a dominating and a rising power approach parity, they face structural incentives to decouple their economies. This decoupling affects business-state relations: high-value businesses within the dominant power tend to oppose their state’s economic statecraft because of its costs to them, whereas low-value businesses within the rising power tend to cooperate because they gain from it. 

Audio - Harvard Environmental Economics Program

Emma Rothschild on Adam Smith, Methane Emissions, and Climate Change

| Nov. 08, 2023

Economic historian Emma Rothschild, the Jeremy and Jane Knowles Professor of History at Harvard, lauded the efforts of young scholars to discover local solutions to mitigate the impacts of global climate change in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.” The podcast is produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.

world map showing the north-south dividing line between the most and least economically developed countries in the world

Wikimedia CC/Bramfab

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

What Is the Global South?

| Nov. 01, 2023

In the absence of an alternative shorthand, politicians and journalists most likely will continue to use "Global South" for the foreseeable future. Yet anyone interested in a more accurate description of the world should be wary of such a misleading and increasingly loaded term.

teaser image

Blog Post - views-on-the-economy-and-the-world

China’s Great Leap Backward

| Oct. 23, 2023

Ten years ago this November, the 18th Central Committee of China’s Communist Party held its quinquennial Third Plenum.  The meeting decided on a set of reforms that were well-chosen to sustain the national growth rate.  But the reforms have not been implemented, contributing to a big slowdown in the economy.

  1. The decline in Chinese growth

As of ten years ago, 2013, a naive extrapolation of the differential in growth rates between China and the US suggested that the number two economy would overtake the number one economy by 2021 (when GDPs are compared using nominal exchange rates). Some even said the cross-over year would be 2019. This did not happen; the US economy remains far ahead.  Goldman Sachs and others now project that China’s GDP will not catch up with US GDP until 2035if ever.  Even if the crossover occurs, it may be only temporary.  The Chinese economy is forecast to peak sometime in the middle of the century, after which the ongoing decline in the labor force will outweigh productivity growth.  This drastic revision of crossover forecasts is one indication of how sharply trend growth in the Middle Kingdom has been revised downward since 2013.

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives to deliver a speech during the Belt and Road Forum at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023. (AP Photo/Louise Delmotte)

AP Photo/Louise Delmotte

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

China’s Great Leap Backward

| Oct. 20, 2023

China’s ongoing economic slowdown is partly the result of its failure to implement crucial structural reforms that would have enabled it to escape the middle-income trap. While previous Chinese leaders saw economic prosperity as the key to maintaining popular support, Xi Jinping has prioritized political control over growth.

From left, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, U.S. President Joe Biden, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz walk to get into place to participate in a wreath laying ceremony at the Peace Memorial Park as part of the G7 Hiroshima Summit in Hiroshima, May 19, 2023.

(Kenny Holston/Pool Photo via AP)

Analysis & Opinions - Barron's

Climate Policies Are Becoming a Casualty of High Oil Prices

| Oct. 18, 2023

Oil prices have been persistently high over the past two years , at times breaking above $120 a barrel. According to economic theory, that should be good news for climate change. But the political reality is more complicated. Climate policies are increasingly the casualties of high oil prices.