Economics & Global Affairs

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Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

MIGHTY: Model of International Green Hydrogen Trade

| Aug. 03, 2022

The Model of International Green Hydrogen Trade (MIGHTY) is an optimization model to investigate renewable hydrogen production, consumption, and trade between countries. MIGHTY supports strategic analysis by policymakers and investors about the potential roles that countries and regions will play in future renewable hydrogen markets. This paper introduces the model and describes the model formulation.

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., talks with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of N.Y., before an event in the Indian Treaty Room in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House Campus in Washington, Tuesday, March 15, 2022.

AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

Analysis & Opinions - The Wall Street Journal

The Schumer-Manchin Bill Will Ease Inflation and Climate Change

| July 28, 2022

The Inflation Reduction Act, to which Sen. Joe Manchin and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer agreed Wednesday, is what the country needs now. It will help address one of the world’s biggest long-run challenges, climate change, while making progress on inflation. At the same time it will help protect the most vulnerable by extending tax credits for healthcare.

Photo of test engineer Jacob Wilcox pulling his arm out of a glove box used for processing sodium at TerraPower, a company developing and building small nuclear reactors on Jan.

AP Photo/Elaine Thompson, File

Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Policy

By Not Acting on Climate, Congress Endangers U.S. National Security

| July 21, 2022

Last week, U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin seemingly dashed Democrats’ hopes for congressional action to slow climate change. Sen. Bernie Sanders accused Manchin of “sabotag[ing] the president’s agenda”; Rep. John Yarmuth, when asked about the consequences of Congress not acting on climate change, said, “We’re all going to die”; and climate activists, as well as some Democrats in Congress, wondered if Manchin should be removed as chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

The July 28 Announcement of Q2 GDP Will Not Mean Recession

July 21, 2022

On July 28, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its advance estimate of economic growth, as measured by GDP, in the just-completed second quarter of the year.  The announcement is attracting more than the usual eager anticipation.  The reason is that many observers predict that the Q2 GDP number will be negative and that this will officially confirm widespread beliefs that the economy went into recession in the first half of 2022, figuring that growth in national output is already determined to have been negative in the 1st quarter of the year. After all, isn’t a recession defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth?

A large American Flag hanging on the NY Stock Exchange

AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

Is the US in Recession?

| July 18, 2022

Do not be surprised if, later this month, there is a wave of headlines claiming that the US economy is in recession. But such an assessment would depend on a chain of reasoning that has three important flaws, writes Jeffrey Frankel.

Audio - Harvard Environmental Economics Program

Confronting the Global Energy Crisis: A Conversation With Dan Yergin

| July 05, 2022

The post-pandemic demand for energy combined with the war in Ukraine and subsequent gas shortages have created a global energy crisis. That is the assessment offered by renowned global energy expert Daniel Yergin in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” a podcast produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

A Resilience Case for International Trade

| July 03, 2022

Some new problems have afflicted the economy in the last year.  Two examples come from the US:  blockages in supply chain logistics and a critical shortage in infant milk formula. One problem applies to the EU even more than to the US: energy scarcity due to sanctions against Russian fossil fuel exports.  And one applies almost everywhere: inflation.

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

Get Ready for “Reverse Currency Wars”

| May 28, 2022

The US dollar is up 12% against the euro over the last year.  Having moved from 1.21 $/€ in May 2021 to 1.07 $/€ today, the exchange rate seems to be approaching one-to-one parity for the first time.  Europeans are not happy about it. If you think that prices for oil and other commodities are high now in terms of dollars, you should see what they look like in terms of euros.  Get ready for “reverse currency wars.”

Digital currency "coins."

Arthur Mazi

Analysis & Opinions - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

What Will Determine the Future of Money?

| May 25, 2022

The international economy is beginning to fracture around the development of novel digital currencies and the human values that their systems represent. Since currencies represent a commonly accepted medium of exchange and can act as an enabler or disabler of economic relationships, they have the power to shape how the global economy functions.