Economics & Global Affairs

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Analysis & Opinions - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

China’s Rise as a Geoeconomic Influencer: Four European Case Studies

| Nov. 15, 2018

Over the past decade, China has become central to the world economy. Building on its economic successes, it is becoming increasingly central in world politics. China is also now more ambitious, aiming to establish itself as a regional as well as a global power. It is worth pointing out that the country’s economic rise is already challenging traditional geopolitics, despite a clear “divergence of views about how threatening this might be to traditional US dominance and agenda setting,” as Harvard scholar Tony Saich has put it.

President Donald Trump Visits the American Cemetery of Suresnes, Outside Paris

NBC News

Analysis & Opinions - Los Angeles Times

Trump, Stung by Midterms and Nervous About Mueller, Retreats From Traditional Presidential Duties

| Nov. 13, 2018

For weeks this fall, an ebullient President Trump traveled relentlessly to hold raise-the-rafters campaign rallies — sometimes three a day — in states where his presence was likely to help Republicans on the ballot.

But his mood apparently has changed as he has taken measure of the electoral backlash that voters delivered Nov. 6. With the certainty that the incoming Democratic House majority will go after his tax returns and investigate his actions, and the likelihood of additional indictments by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, Trump has retreated into a cocoon of bitterness and resentment, according to multiple administration sources.

Iranian Currency Exchange

Tasnim News

Analysis & Opinions

Iran Sanctions: How Deep Will They Bite?

| Nov. 12, 2018

In Iran, officials blame the sanctions for the economic crisis, while in the United States, officials blame the Iranian government. There is no denying that Iran’s economy has serious problems that have nothing to do with sanctions, but there is no doubt that the current crisis is the result of the sanctions. The same economy was able to expand by 18 percent in the two years that sanctions were partially lifted as a result of the 2015 nuclear deal. However, regime-change advocates in the United States who hope that sanctions will precipitate economic collapse will be disappointed. Economies do not collapse—they shrink. How far Iran’s economy will shrink and how Iran’s leaders and its people respond to the contraction are the real questions. Will the economy bottom out in 2019 or continue to slide for several more years? 

Secretary Pompeo Meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

U.S. Department of State

Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Affairs

Saudi Arabia’s Empty Oil Threats

| Nov. 01, 2018

The brazen murder of Washington Post journalist and U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi has elicited that rarest of reactions in contemporary U.S. politics: bipartisan consensus. President Trump’s administration, however, has adopted a notably restrained response thus far. US administration officials reportedly worry that by applying too much pressure on the kingdom, they could inadvertently “jeopardize plans to enlist Saudi help to avoid disrupting the oil market.” The Trump administration has been counting on Saudi Arabia, as the world’s swing producer, to increase its oil production to help offset the anticipated loss of Iranian supply come November 5, when sanctions lifted under the Iran nuclear deal are re-imposed. While Saudi Arabia does have the ability to impose costs on the United States if it is displeased by forceful action on the Khashoggi affair, Saudi threats to sabotage President Trump’s Iran policy through manipulating the oil market do not appear credible

Some Context for Canadians Who Love or Hate the New Nafta

Robert Linsdell/Flickr

Analysis & Opinions - Bloomberg Opinion

Some Context for Canadians Who Love or Hate the New Nafta

| Oct. 30, 2018

Americans are not the only ones still unpacking the new USMCA trade deal that is due to replace Nafta. Two issues have received a great deal of attention in Canada — one which is misunderstood as a great concession by Canada and the other wrongly celebrated as an unequivocal victory. Both deserve a deeper look.

Former Prime Minister of Senegal Aminata Touré and Ambassador Nicholas Burns

Harvard Kennedy School

Analysis & Opinions

Africa Doesn't Fully Take Advantage of its Resources Because of its Leaders

| Oct. 30, 2018

On her visit to the Harvard Kennedy School, Aminata Touré spoke with Faculty Chair of the Future of Diplomacy Project, Nicholas Burns. Their conversation was published on Harvard's website - in which the former Prime Minister stated that Africa is not getting enough from its resources due to its leaders

A photograph of the U.S. dollar among international bank notes.

Creative Commons

Analysis & Opinions - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

The Future of the U.S. Dollar in a Post Iran Deal World

| Oct. 26, 2018

The European Union’s announcement in September 2018 that it would begin to create a special payments channel with Iran in response to the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) once again raises the question of the role of the U.S. Dollar (USD) in the international economic order.  Under the surface of discussions of alternative payment mechanisms is the legitimate question of the negative impacts of American coercive economic statecraft on the USD status as the leading global reserve currency.