Economics & Global Affairs

Africa is home to approximately 1.4 billion people[1], about 16 percent of the world’s population, yet its continental share in global trade remains below 3 percent[2], according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). This suboptimal proportion of world trade is compounded by Africa's limited intra-continental trade. During the 26th Africa Business Conference (ABC) held at Harvard Business School (HBS) on the 17^th of February 20, 2024, industry experts, policymakers, students, faculty members, and entrepreneurs converged to interrogate these concerns and explore opportunities for improving intra-African trade. 

Mohammad Tabaar analyzes Iran's strategy to weaken Israel and divide the Middle East.

Oil prices have been persistently high over the past two years , at times breaking above $120 a barrel. According to economic theory, that should be good news for climate change. But the political reality is more complicated. Climate policies are increasingly the casualties of high oil prices.

Johson and Wolfram argue that imposing a price cap on Iranian oil exports will diminish the benefits petrostates have in times of conflict. 

The International Energy Agency predicted last month that demand for global oil for transport will peak around 2026, plateau for all uses by 2028, and possibly hit a zenith by the end of the decade. Harvard experts say the forecasts track with what’s going on in the developed world, but the energy needs of less-wealthy nations pressing to develop their economies could foil expectations for years to come.

The following is an event write-up about the recent Future of Diplomacy Project (FDP) seminar on “The Future of Ukraine: Reconstruction, Energy Security, and Innovation” moderated by Ambassador Paula J. Dobriansky, Senior Fellow with the Future of Diplomacy Project. 

To keep oil flowing and diminish the U.S., Beijing brokers a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Ownership of reforms by citizens is often presented as important for success. This paper explores media engagement and support for economic reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using text analysis techniques on publicly available sources. Results show that while reform efforts have intensified in recent years in the GCC, these efforts tend to focus on stronger rather than weaker policy areas, potentially limiting the growth-enhancing effect of reforms. Social media analysis using Twitter shows that the population’s support for reforms has been declining. The analysis of traditional
news media points to more engagement by international than by local media. However, sentiment from international media is less positive about economic reforms in the GCC. Sentiment in international media and social media matters, as evidenced by its positive and strong correlation with FDI inflows into the GCC.

On December 3, 2022, Nicola De Blasio, Senior Fellow with the Belfer Center’s Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP), chaired a panel discussion, “Is Hydrogen Our Future?,” at the Rome MED – Mediterranean Dialogue (Rome MED), an annual high-level conference on Mediterranean geopolitics. The panel discussion was part of ENRP’s Future of Hydrogen project’s ongoing engagement with global policymakers, who are increasingly viewing hydrogen as a solution to meeting their decarbonization and energy security goals. 

The price cap on Russian oil implemented today by the G7 countries plus Australia represents a novel approach to sanctions. The policy is designed to reduce Russian fossil fuel revenues while keeping Russian oil on the market. In this brief, Catherine Wolfram, Simon Johnson, and Łukasz Rachel explain the basic economic principles at work and discuss some of the critiques of the price cap.