Economics & Global Affairs

582 Items

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

The Last Time a ‘Tanker War’ Broke Out in the Persian Gulf, It Lasted for Years

| June 14, 2019

As tensions mounted between the United States and Iran, European nations pressed for a calm response, fearing that any escalation could disrupt trade through the region’s vital Strait of Hormuz, which carries up to a third of global crude oil exports traded via ships. If the strait is blocked or trade there is disrupted by conflict, analysts predict oil prices would surge.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (L) speaks at a conference about the Fed's planned interest-rate strategy, June 4, 2019.

Kiichiro Sato (AP)

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

It's Tempting for the Fed to Move Slowly. That Would Be a Grave Error.

| June 04, 2019

The Federal Reserve will over the next several months make monetary policy decisions that are as consequential as any it has made since the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007-2008. The temptation in a highly uncertain and politicized environment will be to move cautiously. Yet this would be a grave error in the current context, where a recession could be catastrophic and the odds of one beginning in the next year, while still less than 50-50, now appear significant and increasing.

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, speaks at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, January 29, 2019.

Jose Luis Magana

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

What Marco Rubio Gets Wrong - And Right - About the Decline of American Investment

| May 31, 2019

Senator Marco Rubio, R-Florida, has recently claimed that the worrying decline of private investment in the American economy can be attributed to "shareholder capitalism" and "short-termism". In this co-authored op-ed, economic specialists Lawrence H. Summers and Anna Stansbury share their thoughts on whether and why this is the case.

The Real cost of Trump's Tarrifs

Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

The Real Cost of Trump’s Tariffs

| May 23, 2019

Whereas winners tend to outnumber losers when trade is liberalized, raising tariffs normally has the opposite result. US President Donald Trump appears to have engineered a spectacular example of this: his trade war with China has hurt almost every segment of the US economy, and created very few winners.

Chinese President Xi Jinping

AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais

Analysis & Opinions - Axios

Xi's Latest Leverage: U.S. Imports of Chinese Rare-Earth Elements

| May 22, 2019

Five days after Trump moved to cut off American components to Chinese telecoms giant Huawei, President Xi Jinping responded with a subtle threat to strangle America’s supplies of rare earths — the natural elements used in everything from computers to satellites. Xi’s threat demonstrates how the rivalry between a rising China and a ruling U.S. spreads from trade to technology to supply chains, touching every aspect of bilateral relations. The conflict risks massive spillover costs to the global economy.

Chinese President Xi Jinping smiles at the audience after concluding his speech at the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland,  January 17, 2017.

Michel Euler (AP)

Analysis & Opinions - The Wall Street Journal

A Better Way to Deal With Beijing

| May 14, 2019

China isn’t a monolith, former World Bank president Robert B. Zoellick writes, and in order to make headway with China, the United States should also pressure the country’s leadership with non-economic means. A deal that opens up trade would be useful, but the U.S. needs a multifront strategy and continuing engagement with China, not a single transaction. America should coordinate with partners—including reformers in China—to change China’s behavior.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks on the prospect of continued negotiations with North Korea at the International Arctic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, April 9, 2019.

Dmitri Lovetsky (AP)

Analysis & Opinions - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Policing Terror Finance in an Era of Great Competition

| May 07, 2019

America’s sanctions strategy is increasingly burdened by the involvement of systemically important financial institutions and sovereign investors in global financial statecraft. In the post-9/11 world, Washington’s strategy was highly effective in pursuing non-state actors like al-Qaeda or ISIS, as well as small, rogue nations like Iran. Yet in addressing larger sovereigns like the Kremlin, US strategy has struggled to maintain the same effectiveness given the cross-border financial connections linking these entities to Western markets. As an era of great power competition among Washington, Moscow, and Beijing sets in, these foes will crowd out smaller, non-state actors, thus demanding an adequate response from the Treasury.

Saudi Arabia’s Moment in the Sun

AP/Donna Fenn Heintzen

Analysis & Opinions - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Saudi Arabia’s Moment in the Sun

| May 07, 2019

As part of a high profile tour of China in February, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has overseen a range of multi-billion dollar pledges and MOUs with Beijing. This partly reflects Riyadh’s desire to diversify sources for investments and technology following the mass withdrawal of major Western business leaders from the Future Investment Initiative in October 2018, after the murder of Saudi Journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Embassy in Istanbul. Yet cooperation with China on renewable energy, if successful, would realize a significant first step towards Saudi Arabia’s lofty ambitions for solar and wind power.

Iran Oil Sanctions: A Rare Case Where Transactional Diplomacy Should Work

AP/Hasan Jamali

Analysis & Opinions - Bloomberg Opinion

Iran Oil Sanctions: A Rare Case Where Transactional Diplomacy Should Work

| Apr. 22, 2019

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s most recent announcement on Iran policy has raised some eyebrows. He indicated on Monday morning that the Trump administration will not renew waivers to importers of Iranian crude and that other suppliers (meaning Saudi Arabia) have agreed to increase production in to ensure the global oil market remains well-supplied. Skeptics question whether — after last summer’s debacle — there is sufficient trust between Washington and Riyadh for this arrangement to work. What skeptics may not have digested is that, while timing remains a problem, this is a classic win-win situation. It is a near-perfect example of the very limited universe of occasions when transactional diplomacy could actually work.