Economics & Global Affairs

Could China and the US be stumbling down the path Germany and the United Kingdom took at the beginning of the last century? The possibility will strike many readers as inconceivable. But we should remember that when we say something is “inconceivable,” this is a claim not about what is possible in the world, but rather about what our limited minds can imagine.

My answer to the question of whether we are sleepwalking toward war is “yes.” 

When wielded effectively, U.S. sanctions have weakened targets like Iran and North Korea without impacting the global economy. But against authoritarian heavyweights like Russia and China, this may no longer be the case. America’s policy options are narrowing.

At the start of the year, the economic mood was tending toward the optimistic.  True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019. US GDP grew 2.3 % in 2019, down from 2.9 % in 2018.  World growth was weak in 2019 as well: 2.9% according to IMF estimates, down from 3.6 % the year before.  Still, there had been no recession.  And forecasts as recently as January called for world growth to rebound in 2020.

At the start of this year, things seemed to be looking up for the global economy. True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019: from 2.9% to 2.3% in the United States, and from 3.6% to 2.9% globally. Still, there had been no recession, and as recently as January, the International Monetary Fund projected a global growth rebound in 2020. The new coronavirus, COVID-19, has changed all of that.

The continual spread of Open Banking means that regulators and merchants in various markets are becoming more aware of the critical importance of security as data speeds increase. One of the more intriguing markets moving forward with financial innovation is China, where regulators have upgraded both banking and cybersecurity rules in recent years.

The rules — as with Europe’s regulations surrounding financial data collection and use — are intended to keep information safe, while fostering growth for banks and merchants. Since China is one of the more dominant markets in the world, its changing rules are a matter of interest for both lawmakers in neighboring markets and merchants looking to expand into the country.

This study group will explore the role of the private sector in evolving energy systems, and how corporations might change in a climate constrained world. 

Stephen Walt details how Europe is suddenly facing serious questions about its future role in world politics—and even in the trans-Atlantic relationship.

Joseph S. Nye describes how economic entanglement can make an actor see that the costs of an action will sometimes exceed the benefits, hurting the attacker as well as the target. This can contribute to deterrence and strategic stability.

On November 19, 2019, the Belfer Center’s Economic Diplomacy Initiative hosted a national security crisis simulation in the JFK Jr. Forum to a packed audience from the Harvard and MIT communities. 

Drawing on the experience of Belfer Center members who have served in the highest levels of the U.S. government, the event explored the nexus of U.S. economic power and its national security interests.

Joseph Nye writes that the institutional costs of using a wrecking ball approach may reduce American power in the long run.