Energy

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President Donald J. Trump, joined by Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, participates in a phone call with Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley and National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020, in his conference room at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Md.

Tia Dufour / Official White House Photo

Analysis & Opinions

The US before the Elections: American Democracy at a Crossroads? [In German]

| Oct. 05, 2020

American democracy is facing pressure from all sides: For months, there have been partly violent protests against systemic racism and police violence of the “Black Lives Matter” movement. The COVID pandemic has already claimed over 200,000 lives and has extreme economic consequences. Coupled with a polarized media landscape and the growing influence of social media, the pandemic has further exposed deep social divisions along ideological, economic and ethnic fault lines. In addition, the Trump administration is stepping up its escalatory description of the integrity of the American electoral system - what some consider to be a rigid electoral and party system in need of reform. How will the social conflicts affect the understanding of (American) democracy? How is the political establishment contributing to alienation from the Constitution?

Chinese President Xi Jinping is displayed on a big screen in Beijing as Chinese battle tanks roll by during a Sept. 3, 2015 parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender during World War II.

(AP Photo)

Magazine Article - The Atlantic

The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?

| September 24, 2015

The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.