Energy

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Chinese President Xi Jinping is displayed on a big screen in Beijing as Chinese battle tanks roll by during a Sept. 3, 2015 parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender during World War II.

(AP Photo)

Magazine Article - The Atlantic

The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?

| September 24, 2015

The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.

News

The Future of Venezuela: Oil and Politics

April 18, 2013

Venezuela has the largest unconventional oil reserves in the world and very low geological risks. Paradoxically, it has a declining oil industry, despite being in the middle of the most significant resource windfall in history. What will the post-Chavez era mean for the country’s politics and its faltering oil industry? Francisco Monaldi, Robert F. Kennedy Visiting Professor at Harvard Kennedy School, addressed these questions and more at a Belfer Center seminar in April. A video of the event can be found here.