Energy

For a century, the geopolitics of energy has been synonymous with the
geopolitics of oil and gas. However, geopolitics and the global energy economy
are both changing. The international order predominant since the
end of World War II faces mounting challenges. At the same time, renewable
energy is growing rapidly. Nevertheless, the geopolitics of renewable
energy has received relatively little attention, especially when considering
the far-reaching consequences of a global shift to renewable energy.

The paper starts with a discussion of seven renewable energy scenarios
for the coming decades: the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2016, the EIA’s
International Energy Outlook 2016, IRENA’s REmap 2016, Bloomberg’s
New Energy Outlook 2016, BP’s Energy Outlook 2016, Exxon-Mobil’s Outlook
for Energy 2016 and the joint IEA and IRENA G20 de-carbonization
scenario.

Anne-Marie Slaughter, the president of New America Foundation, says the Russians hacked the presidential election and the U.S. needs to respond, but the national trauma of 9/11 and the Iraq War has made the U.S. more timid and reluctant to use force. Prior to that, Deutsche Bank’s Sebastien Galy says the catalyst for a stronger dollar will be better data in the U.S. Then, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity’s chief market strategist, says you should never sell until you’re in close proximity to a recession. Nicholas Burns, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, says you need to work across borders to counter modern terrorism. Finally, Erwin Chemerinsky, the dean of University of California, Irvine’s School of Law, says Neil Gorsuch is smart and articulate but isn’t answering many questions in Congress.

On June 23 and 24, twenty five experts met at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government under the auspices of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. The group, which included experts from academia, the financial sector, government, and the energy industry, spent an evening and the following full day discussing and debating the possible energy implications of a nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran.

A consensus has emerged since the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia that the kingdom will not change course on oil policy. This consensus is probably right, at least for the short term.  It is, however, correct for reasons other than the ones that most observers have invoked.

It is far too early to count out President Obama as a foreign policy lame duck.

During last week's successful Asia trip, Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced an important Climate Change agreement along with technology, visa and military transparency deals. This is a welcome sign that the US and China are capable of taking on tough challenges together.

But, there are other international obstacles ahead for Obama. Can he face down Vladimir Putin on Ukraine and find a way to reach a deal with Iran to block its nuclear ambitions?

Are we witnessing an Obama revival on foreign policy?

In this week's op Ed, Professor Burns highlights the importance of North America to our global future.  The article praises last week's Council on Foreign Relations report led by David Petraeus and Bob Zoellick advocating a much greater U.S. focus on forming a closer trade, energy and security partnership with Canada and Mexico. Zoellick and Petraeus believe this is central to a successful American global strategy in the future.  He agrees.

The Spring 2011 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This issue highlights the Belfer Center’s continuing efforts to build bridges between the United States and Russia to prevent nuclear catastrophe – an effort that began in the 1950s. This issue also features three new books by Center faculty that sharpen global debate on critical issues: God’s Century, by Monica Duffy Toft, The New Harvest by Calestous Juma, and The Future of Power, by Joseph S. Nye.